To wrap up this year's For Better Or For Worse series, we're taking a look at the National League West Division.
Arizona Diamondbacks - Third place in a division is not a great place to be, especially after a season that where your team jumped from worst (in 2010) to first (in 2011), but the Diamondbacks appear to be stuck there for the next few years. Sure, there will be opportunities to leap over the other powerhouses in this division, but don't bet on it. After a disappointing 2012, the D'backs did something they've wanted to do since the winter of 2010: trade Justin Upton. Months of speculation and posturing led to Upton joining his brother B.J. in Atlanta, while Arizona got back third baseman Martin Prado, pitcher Randall Delgado, and three other prospects in return. It's been a busy offseason for the Snakes, as they also signed Cody Ross, Eric Chavez, and Brandon McCarthy in another attempt to win the West like many thought they would this year. They acquired Heath Bell from the Marlins at the beginning of the season, and the indication is that he will fare much better in the desert than he did near the beach: Bell led baseball with 134 saves between 2009 and 2011 while with the Padres, so he's proven that he can be successful in this division. While the offense is sure to struggle some with the loss of both Upton and Chris Young (shipped to Oakland earlier this offseason), Ross, Chavez and Prado should be more than enough to pick up the predicted slack, as well as shortstop Cliff Pennington, who recently signed a 2-year deal. Even though they'll most likely spend 2013 looking up at the Giants and Dodgers, there's a lot to like in the Diamondbacks' future.
BEST CASE SCENARIO: Ross, Kubel and Parra keep the outfield safe from home runs, the rotations hands Bell plenty of opportunities to redeem himself, and the Snakes continue their climb back to the top.
WORST CASE SCENARIO: Upton's absence is too strong for the team to overcome, and they find themselves dropping closer to last place than they'd like to.
WHAT THEY NEED TO SUCCEED: Now that the Upton thing has been resolved, they can focus on developing the young talent they've accrued this offseason. Didi Gregorious, the shortstop of the future, is great defensively but needs to learn better plate discipline. Delgado could be a top-of-the-line starter, but he's still got a long way to go. The D'backs project to contend for the next 6-8 years, even in the suddenly strong NL West, but only if these prospects can pay dividends, and quickly.
Colorado Rockies - Things are tough in Colorado. They've got plenty of pieces that could possibly result in a postseason run a la 2007, but for some reason, it's just not coming together. Troy Tulowitzki and Carlos Gonzalez continue to be plagued by injuries, limiting CarGo to 135 games and Tulo to 47 in 2012. Even in Coors Field, which has always had a reputation for inflating batters' stats, the Rockies' offense in 2012 was pretty spectacular: the Rox didn't rank lower than 6th in any offensive category, rising as high as 2nd in batting average (.274). While last offseason's signing of Michael Cuddyer hasn't worked out fantastically yet, he's a great veteran presence in a lineup that needs it desperately. Conversely, though, the rotation was an absolute mess. The team experimented with a 4-man rotation for a while, a rare strategy in the live-ball era. Want to know how both the 4-man and 5-man rotations worked out? The Rockies were ranked dead last in EVERY SINGLE PITCHING STAT. Not most, not some. Every single one. The team ERA was 5.22. Opponents hit .290, the highest of any team. They had just 27 quality starts; in a 162-game season, 27 quality starts means every 6th game started out all right, but every other game was doomed from the beginning (barring walk-offs or rallies, of course). When your pitching is this disgustingly atrocious, there really isn't a lot you can do to solve it. While the Rockies' field will never be pitcher-friendly, it'd be a little less embarrassing for the team if some of their hurlers, namely one they received from Cleveland when they shipped Ubaldo Jimenez out of town in Drew Pomeranz, could find some way to adjust to the launching pad that is Coors. It'll be a while before the Colorado crew rises above sea level in the NL West.
BEST CASE SCENARIO: Tulowitzki plays a full season and hits 30 home runs, the rotation finds a way around the Humidor, and the return of Rocktober seems like a real possibility in the near future.
WORST CASE SCENARIO: Tulo and CarGo miss a combined 200 games, their starters post even worse numbers than 2012, and the Mile High team sinks to a new low by losing 100 games.
WHAT THEY NEED TO SUCCEED: I sound like a broken record, but it's up to Tulowitzki and Gonzalez to carry the offense. The starters are always going to post high ERAs and let opposing teams score frequently. The best way for the Rox to combat that is to keep their two power hitters healthy and happy.
Los Angeles Dodgers - Comparisons to the Yankees are something that the Dodgers have dealt with for the majority of their existence. Normally, they've been flattering. That's not the case anymore. After a tumultuous tenure under calamitous owners Frank and Jamie McCourt, the Boys in Blue finally got a revitalization of the baseball spirit when basketball legend Magic Johnson and baseball whiz Stan Kasten bought the team and immediately infused it with brand new life (and about half a billion dollars worth of star players). Since July, the Dodgers have acquired Hanley Ramirez, Shane Victorino, Brandon League, Adrian Gonzalez, Carl Crawford, Josh Beckett, Korean hurler Ryu Hyun-Jin, and Zack Greinke. While they lost Victorino in free agency, this is not a team that is lacking in anything. The infield is strong, with Gonzalez and Ramirez at the corners (each a potential 30-30 threat); the outfield is monstrous (you show me a more lethal and speedy outfield than Kemp, Ethier and Crawford when they're all healthy, and I'll show you a fake outfield), and the pitching is electric (Greinke and Hyun-Jin will be numbers 2 and 3 behind Clayton Kershaw...if that sentence doesn't impress you, I don't know what will). Even the bullpen is rock steady, with League slated as the closer in front of Kenley Jansen and J.P. Howell, two would-be closers on other, less stacked teams. This is a team that really needs nothing that it doesn't already have. So why didn't they do better last year? It may have something to do with all those new faces just popping in during the middle of the season. Maybe a full year together will give these guys a better chance at dethroning the reigning champs. Or maybe another collapse is imminent. Nah...this team's "too big to fail", they certainly won't disappoint. Right?
BEST CASE SCENARIO: They win the World Series for the first time since 1988. Seriously, that's the only acceptable result for this team in 2013. If they don't, well...
WORST CASE SCENARIO: The team deemed "too big to fail" does just that, with Kemp, Ethier, Gonzalez and Crawford spending more time on the DL than the field.
WHAT THEY NEED TO SUCCEED: Nothing. They already have all the pieces. They just have to start strong and control the division for the entire season. If they allow one moment of weakness, expect the Giants to pounce. We've seen it happen twice in the last 3 years, don't discount it.
San Diego Padres - I think all baseball fans want to see the Padres do well, regardless of who you root for. They always seem like they're just on the periphery of a postseason appearance, like 2010, when they were edged out on the last day by the Giants for the division title. There are plenty of bright spots that lead us to believe that the Friars will be playing in October soon, if not next year: Chase Headley, the sudden dark horse MVP candidate, led the National League with 115 RBI, and he also led his team with a .286 average, 31 homers and an .875 OPS (needless to say, all but the batting average are career highs). Carlos Quentin, traded from the White Sox last offseason, missed the first half of 2012 but returned to finish out the year with 16 home runs and 46 RBI in 86 games. Cameron Maybin struggled, hitting only .246, but he did steal 26 bases, a good sign of things to come from the 25 year old. As far as the pitching, there's a little more to worry about. Clayton Richards, the number 2 starter, led the team with 14 wins and a 3.99 ERA, which does little to inspire confidence in the staff. Edinson Volquez, who came over from the Reds in exchange for Mat Latos, led with 174 strikeouts, and Huston Street, acquired from the Rockies a year ago, had 23 saves to lead the bullpen. Somehow, opposing pitchers manage to take advantage of Petco Park's previously pitcher-friendly dimensions, but the Padres starters themselves couldn't capitalize. Another event sure to hurt more than help is the 50-game suspension handed down to young catcher Yasmani Grandal a few weeks after 2012 ended, meaning he'll be suspended in 2013 and the Padres will lose nearly a third of the season without their up-and-coming backstop. Hopefully the team will be able to stay afloat until he returns.
BEST CASE SCENARIO: Headley continues his transformation into an MVP, Grandal weathers his suspension, and the rotation wins 50 or more games en route to a Wild Card berth for the Friars.
WORST CASE SCENARIO: The starting rotation flames out worse than before, Headley regresses to his career norm, and the Padres find themselves praying for the next Tony Gwynn.
WHAT THEY NEED TO SUCCEED: Moving the fences in at Petco wouldn't hurt. Long known as a pitcher's park, the anemic Padres offense could potentially be deadly, given more friendly dimensions, especially after the offensive explosion we saw from Headley and others in the second half of 2012.
San Francisco Giants - In case you missed the past 3 years, the Giants are currently baseball's best team. Yes, that's a very bold statement, one that's extremely difficult to back up. Does 2 World Series titles in the past 3 years make that case any more convincing? It definitely should. And it seems very likely that the only reason they didn't make it to October in 2011 was losing former Rookie of the Year and reigning MVP Buster Posey to a nasty collision in May of that season that caused him to miss the rest of the year. Both seasons that Posey's been behind the plate full time, 2010 and this year, the Giants have won it all. Coincidence? Maybe. A strong starting rotation certainly helps: Matt Cain started the All-Star Game (that Melky Cabrera won while playing for the Giants before his 50-game suspension for PEDs) and threw a perfect game against the Astros in June, Barry Zito regained his Cy Young form near the end of the season, and Madison Bumgarner and Ryan Vogelsong kept a solid staff together at the back end. The only pitcher who left a lot to be desired was, surprisingly, Tim Lincecum, who went from staff ace to staff disgrace in 2012, posting the highest ERA (5.18) out of all starters with 100 or more innings. There's a sentence I never thought I'd hear. While Lincecum's terminal case of the yips brought the pitching down, they still ranked in the top half of all defensive stats. As for the offense, behind Posey, reigning World Series MVP Pablo Sandoval (who became the 4th player in history to hit 3 home runs in a World Series game) and midseason acquisitions Hunter Pence and Marco Scutaro, the champs finally have an offense to match their defense.
BEST CASE SCENARIO: Lincecum returns to Cy Young form, Sandoval hits 40 home runs, Posey catches 145 games and the Giants defend their title, so we all have to start paying attention to them.
WORST CASE SCENARIO: The Freak's freakish 2012 turns out to be the norm, Posey can't duplicate his MVP campaign, and again, they miss the postseason 12 months after hoisting the Commissioner's Trophy.
WHAT THEY NEED TO SUCCEED: Flying under the radar has worked for the team so far. There are overtones of a dynasty, although it's too early to expect a repeat. Obviously they need to fix whatever ails Lincecum, which may necessitate a few months in the bullpen. Timmy Boy shined in the playoffs while pitching relief, maybe a lighter workload for a while would do wonders for the 2-time Cy Young winner.
TBF's 2013 NL West Predictions:
San Francisco Giants
Los Angeles Dodgers
San Diego Padres
Arizona Diamondbacks
Colorado Rockies
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