Saturday, January 14, 2012

Playing The Fielder.

A month ago, a friend and I were talking about what we expected to happen at the Winter Meetings in Dallas. We came to the conclusion that every marquee free agent would sign at those meetings, or at least before 2012 began...aside from Prince Fielder. To our surprise, we were right. The question is, why?

Admittedly, Fielder may have been outshone in the Lone Star State back in December by a certain other first baseman, but it's very hard to understand why he's still a free agent, with Spring Training starting in roughly a month and a half. He'll be 28 a month into the next season, and carries his career line of .282/230/665 and a .929 OPS to whatever team eventually sobers up and gives him a contract. He's coming off another MVP-caliber season, hitting .299/38/120 and an OPS flirting with 1.000. At least 5 times, the Rangers, Cubs, Nationals, Mariners and Marlins, have all been continuously linked to Fielder, and there's always a chance that a dark horse team like the Dodgers could emerge, and even though he said a lot to the contrary, there's always a slim chance that he could return to the Brewers. So, again, why is he still not signed?

Fielder's swing strikes fear into the heart of opponents. How come he still doesn't have a new place to show it off?

A lot should be said about the agent representing Fielder, and there's a chance that it's because of this man that Prince has yet to find his throne. Scott Boras (also known by another name to baseball fans: The Devil) has touted Fielder as one of the best hitters of this generation, and has created a now-infamous binder that he's doled out to interested owners like Jose Canseco handed out syringes in the A's clubhouse in the late 80s. Nobody's arguing against him, everyone this side of Miller Park is fully aware of Fielder's fantastic ability to smash a baseball in such a frequent manner that it should be illegal. But it's Boras' unyielding desire to completely extort every single penny possible out of franchises who desperately need his superstar clients that makes even the most casual baseball enthusiast cringe. Even as a Yankees fan, I see Boras as a money-sucking monster. That's how bad he is for the game. So, it's been documented that Boras is expecting some team to shell out well over $100 million, over at least 8 years, for Fielder's services. However, if Fielder and Boras were smart, they would accept an offer that many people think would be better: a 3-year deal with less money, but would give him the ability to either opt out after a year or 2, but is short enough that, at the end of the deal, he's only 31 and therefore still in his prime (you'll remember that Albert Pujols just signed a 10-year, $254 million deal at the age of 31, so that wouldn't be unfeasible). Then, he could get more money for more proven work, and have a little more experience to bring to a team that may need it. But Fielder desires a long-term commitment. He wants to be the kind of franchise cornerstone that he's been in Milwaukee for the last 6 years. He wants everyone to look to him for the big hit, the big play, the big game. Of course, anywhere he goes, he'd be a difference maker. But if it weren't for Ryan Braun, the Brewers would have been known as "Prince Fielder and the Brewers" for the last half-decade. He wants something like that, but for even longer and in a bigger market, where he has more protection. So...where would that be?

If we're to believe the reports (always a slippery slope), Fielder seems to have his options narrowed down for him to the Rangers, Nationals, Mariners and Brewers. The Cubs would love to have him and could absolutely use him, but they have two young, powerful first basemen in Bryan LaHair and newly acquired Anthony Rizzo. The Marlins still have stars in their eyes (and now in their lineup and rotation), but if they wouldn't drop their "no no-trade clauses" policy for Pujols, it stands to reason they wouldn't drop it for Fielder either. Out of the 4 teams Fielder may sign with, the Rangers don't give out big contracts, the Nationals seem confident in Adam LaRoche (God only knows why), the Mariners seem to be dragging their feet (and also just acquired young power hitter Jesus Montero from the Yankees for hurler Michael Pineda), and Prince has stated multiple times that his reign in Milwaukee is over. While they all have reasons to stay away from Boras when it comes to Fielder, they also have something in common: they could all use a powerful bat. And, as much of a pain as it must be to have to sit in a room with the greediest man in baseball, it would absolutely be worth the misery if executives from any team could walk out with a piece of paper saying that Prince Fielder will man the cold corner for them.

Prince could reign supreme in Texas like he did in Milwaukee.

Now, as far as which of the 4 teams would be the best fit for Fielder. The Mariners might be the worst place for Fielder to land, as he would have almost no protection in the lineup. I know, it sounds weird that players like Chone Figgins and Miguel Olivo couldn't provide enough pop for Prince, but it's true. The Nationals would be good, as their lineup is young and full of potential, but Fielder would have to share responsibilities with Jayson Werth, and his sheer presence may prevent them from signing Prince (he's still got 6 more years on a $142 million contract). As I've said before, Braun and Fielder make the most dangerous 1-2 punch in an incredibly long time, and the Brew Crew are now legitimate contenders. Fielder could spend the rest of his career in Milwaukee, and might even take them to their first World Series since the days of Harvey's Wallbangers. However, the best place for Fielder to sign (in my humble opinion) would be with the Rangers. They already have an insanely potent lineup (when ALCS hero Nelson Cruz is batting 7th, you know you're facing an uphill battle), and they definitely have a use for a solid first baseman (Mitch Moreland is less reliable than Carlos Zambrano's ability to not explode), but they may not have the kind of money Fielder needs, if they end up signing Japanese pitching phenom Yu Darvish by the Wednesday deadline. However, should Darvish slip through their fingers, it would make sense for them to strongly pursue Fielder. Is there a chance they could even land both? Who knows.

The possibilities still seem endless for Fielder, even a month before Spring Training begins. It still seems incredibly odd that he doesn't have a new home yet, but maybe this is the kind of thing he needs. For the first time in his still-young career, he's experiencing that the free-agent market isn't as kind as he expected. He's finding out that having the most ruthless/obnoxious agent around isn't necessarily the smartest move, that it could actually hurt your chances at a long term contract instead of helping it. Now, while this isn't the first time a Scott Boras client has remained unsigned until right before the spring (Manny Ramirez didn't sign with the Dodgers until about halfway through March in 2008), that doesn't mean it's a good idea to wait it out. Fielder's body isn't getting any slimmer while he sits around, twiddles his thumbs and waits for the money to flow in. He must show the same drive and fire that made him a fan favorite in Milwaukee, if he wants to become one in another city. 

Sunday, January 8, 2012

Hip, Hip, Jorge!

Another holdover from the Yankees' dynasty of the late 1990s to early 2000s is going quietly into that post-baseball good night: Jorge Posada, longtime backstop and generally good guy, is expected to officially announce his retirement in the coming weeks. Posada, 40, leaves the game with a .273 batting average, 275 career home runs, and 1,065 RBIs.

A 5-time All-Star and 7-time Silver Slugger, Posada was developed in the Yankees farm system after being drafted in the 24th round in 1990, and spent a lot of time in the minors with other pinstriped fledglings Derek Jeter, Mariano Rivera, and Andy Pettitte, now and forever nicknamed "The Core Four". He was a second baseman through rookie ball, but became converted to a catcher soon after, in the way of his idol, Thurman Munson. After limited playing time in 1995, 1996 and 1997, he platooned with fellow catcher and future manager Joe Girardi at catcher, and became an integral part of the 3 World Series the Yanks won from 1998-2000. He saw his best years come in 2003 and 2007, when he posted career highs in home runs and batting average respectively. However, his production steadily dropped from that point, and his career and image took a severe hit during the 2011 season, when he not only openly complained about being dropped in the batting order and being used only as a DH when he felt he still had some good games at catcher left in him, but he voiced his opinions to Girardi and willingly took himself out of the lineup before a critical game against the Red Sox. For this, he lost a lot of respect from many Yankees fans, but in light of this recent news, it seems that all is forgiven. All that's left to do is debate nonstop about his Hall of Fame credentials...which we'll begin right now.

Posada was a powerful force both at the plate and behind it. But does his career merit enshrinement in Cooperstown?

Simple question: does Jorge Posada belong in the Hall of Fame? Simple answer: probably not. Simple question: will Jorge Posada get into the Hall of Fame? Simple answer: there isn't one. If you take a look at his stats alone, he couldn't possibly make it into the Hall. He posted good number overall, especially against lefties, and those 5 Silver Sluggers sure make it tempting to vote for him, but he was never considered to be an overly powerful hitter. As far as defense, the sabermetrics (that's right, they actually DO have some bearing on even the old-school HOF voting process) show that Posada garnered a 47.6 WAR in the 17 years he played. By comparison, Thurman Munson, Posada's idol, had a 44.4 WAR in only 10 years before he was tragically killed. As far as other HOF catchers, Posada seems to fall well short of the perceived threshold for election as a backstop.

However, you also have to consider all his intangibles: Posada's presence as part of the Core Four was a major boost to those championship-winning Yankees teams, and up until this past season, he was perceived as a great force in the clubhouse, never whining or complaining about something he wasn't happy with. He was the definition of a team player, and was one of the most important players in the Yankees organization for the better part of the last 2 decades. We focus on Jeter and Rivera's careers and seem to push the accomplishments of Posada and Pettitte to the background, but without any one of the four, the last 15 years look a lot different for New York. And they don't necessarily look better. So, with that in mind, you almost have to put Posada in the Hall, as well as Pettitte (Jeter and Rivera are beyond reproach). But it's not as easy as us sitting here, me writing and you reading, that a moderately average catcher can gain membership into Major League Baseball's most exclusive club solely based off of what he was a part of. Had he delivered more game-winning hits, more thrown-out batters, maybe this article would be blasting those who dared to argue against his credentials.

Now, considering the state the Hall of Fame ballot may be in when Posada's time arrives, there is a good chance he could be elected purely out of spite. Announcing his retirement after the 2011 season but before the 2012 season means he'll be eligible for Cooperstown in 2016. By that time, accused and document steroid users Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens, Pedro Martinez, Mark McGwire, Sammy Sosa, Rafael Palmeiro and even Posada's buddy Andy Pettitte will all most likely still be clogging up the ballot, due to the extreme prejudices of sportswriters and their inclination to further punish these players for their transgressions. Whether or not this is ethical or even smart is another point of contention, but we'll spare you that for now. If this comes to pass, there's a good chance that the writers will vote Posada into the Hall in his first 3 or 4 years on the ballot simply because there will be no other former players that they feel deserve enshrinement. Of course, if they decide to stay objective (as a fledgling writer myself, I can tell you that rarely happens), then Posada's chances drop noticeably. 

Jorge Posada will be missed. But he did what he knew he had to do, and it's hard to criticize the man now, regardless of what happened last season. Although he won't be a first-balloter, it's difficult to imagine he won't at least get serious consideration for a while, hopefully culminating in a plaque with his name on it. For one last time...hip, hip, Jorge!