Moving Onward And Upward From Heyward.

Opening Day 2010, Cubs at Braves. A 20 year old rookie, getting his first start in the major leagues, steps up to the plate. 60 feet and 6 inches away on the mound, Cubs starter and notorious powder keg of emotion Carlos Zambrano stares the kid down. The kid, for his part, doesn't look nervous. His knees are steady, his bat raised, his wrists loose. Two of the kid's teammates are on base: shortstop Yunel Escobar, and catcher Brian McCann. Although it's only the bottom of the 1st, in the very first game of the season, the score is tied at 3 thanks to a Marlon Byrd homer in the top half of the frame. The game is already on the line, and the kid is put in a precarious position. Zambrano fires one down the middle, and the kid doesn't even think twice. A mighty slash of the air results in the baseball landing some 470 feet away, in the right field bleachers of Turner Field. A thunderous shout of joy erupts from the stadium, and the kid jogs around the bases, a huge smile slowly creeping up on his face.

That should have been the first in a long line of highlights showcasing similar epic moments in the kid's Braves tenure. That home run was a signal, that this kid was ready to take Major League Baseball by storm and, simultaneously, restore a franchise that was only 5 years removed from a dynastic reputation. But sadly, it was not to be. The following seasons would be filled with a mix of disappointment, frustration, and confusion for the kid, his team, and the fans in Atlanta. And now, here we are. The Atlanta Braves have traded right fielder Jason Heyward (and reliever Jordan Walden) to the St. Louis Cardinals for starter Shelby Miller and pitching prospect Tyrell Jenkins.

I really liked J-Hey during his time in Atlanta. I knew several people who claimed he was their favorite player after Chipper Jones retired. He was a Brave through and through, being drafted and developed by the franchise he grew up rooting for in McDonough, Georgia. He was an All-Star in that rookie season, an honor he hasn't earned since. If not for another native Georgian, Giants catcher Buster Posey, Heyward might have won the Rookie of the Year award.  He's absolutely brilliant in the field, never posting fewer than 15 Defensive Runs Saved and always grading out in the double digits where UZR is concerned. His bat has always been tantalizing, but for a myriad of reasons (injuries being the main one, which I'll touch on shortly), he never became the offensive monster we were all expecting. He hasn't hit for much contact since coming up to the bigs, as his .277 average in 2010 still represents a career high. He managed to knock 18 baseballs out of the park that year, and hit 27 in 2012, but has never hit more than 14 in any other season. While his walk rate is spectacular, it took him more than 3 seasons just to get his strikeout percentage down to league average. He's not a free swinger, but he takes a fair share of unnecessary hacks. He's still just 25, though, and it would be foolish to write his hitting abilities off just yet.

However, like so many countless players before (and, presumably, after) him, Heyward simply hasn't been able to stay healthy enough to play a full campaign. In 2 of his 5 seasons, 2011 and 2013, he played less than 130 games. Yes, he's been able to appear in triple-digit games since coming up, but an oft-injured corner outfielder whose defense is more notable than his offense needs to stay on the field to provide maximum value. When he is seemingly well, his minor struggles at the plate become more difficult to explain. Admittedly, he hasn't had any trouble giving the Braves a sizable amount of value: he has yet to post a WAR lower than 2.5 in any given season (according to Baseball-Reference, at least; Fangraphs has that same season at 2.0), and past players comparable to him through age 24 include Carl Yazstremski and some guy named Barry Bonds. There are worst people to be compared to.

While it hurts to lose Heyward, it's vitally important to keep in mind the reason why he's gone. It has nothing to do with his talent, nor his aggravating inability to put it all together at once. Remember last year, when there was a flurry of extensions coming out of the Ted? Freddie Freeman got one, Andrelton Simmons got one, Craig Kimbrel got one, Julio Teheran got one...all to ensure these star players would still be on the team when SunTrust Park opens in Cobb County come 2017. Suspiciously absent from the contract party was Heyward, which was strange considering his free agency was looming much larger (and much sooner) than any of the newly-extended others. Barring an extension from the Cardinals, he'll hit the market at age 26 next offseason, and will likely get a deal for over $150 million if he has a good platform year. He simply priced himself out of Atlanta's budget.

But this isn't a post about Jason Heyward. It may seem like it, since I just spent 5 paragraphs on him, but it's not. This is about the team he's leaving behind. It's clear that the Braves, after an embarrassing first-round exit from the 2013 playoffs and a losing record last season, are fully in rebuild mode. I know the dreaded R-word is scary to read, but this isn't shaping up to be an offseason where the Braves expect to simply retool. Acting GM John Hart isn't reloading for 2015, he's clearly shooting for 2017 and that new ballpark. The team already shipped off incumbent second baseman Tommy La Stella to that same Chicago team mentioned in this post's opening sentence, receiving starter and former Braves farmhand Arodys Vizcaino (as well as the Cubs' 2nd, 3rd, and 4th international bonus slots, after sacrificing their 4th slot in the same deal), and rumors surrounding catcher/left fielder Evan Gattis as well as outfielder Justin Upton would lead one to believe that they aren't done making trades with the future in mind. While either slugger would garner a huge return, the question is whether or not to keep (and potentially extend) them instead. Those two kept the Bravos' offense afloat last year, combing for 51 homers (on a team that hit only 123 long balls) and knocked 154 runs in (out of the 545 RBI all Braves hitters recorded). Losing one or both of those guys would leave a giant hole in the lineup that would be nigh impossible to fill, especially in this era of decreased scoring. Freeman went through a bit of a slump, failing to hit at least 20 homers for the first time in his career and experiencing a 31-point drop in batting average from the year prior (.319 in 2013, .288 this year). Simmons and Chris Johnson were both average at the plate, although Andrelton can at least hang his hat on his mindblowing defensive prowess. And BJ? We won't talk about BJ. You know how bad BJ has been the last 2 years, I don't need to remind you. At least the team finally cut Dan Uggla, a move that came 2 years too late. Simply put, if the Braves are indeed going to trade El Oso Blanco, J-Up or both, they must get position players with power in return. This is a lineup in flux and, sticking with the idea that 2017 is the goal, it's got a long way to go before it intimidates opposing teams again.

The pitching, unlike the hitting, was predictably terrific, thanks in part to Teheran, Alex Wood (who once again split time between the rotation and the bullpen), and respectable seasons from Ervin Santana and Aaron Harang (you'll notice I left Mike Minor, his 4.77 ERA, and his 4.39 FIP off this congratulatory list). Santana will likely walk in free agency, but the team will receive a compensatory draft pick if he does, and Harang is simply another over-the-hill pitcher who enjoyed a resurgence in Atlanta. Any number of available free agent starters could fit the same description next year (Edinson Volquez, for instance, immediately comes to mind). The rotation was fantastic, and the bullpen was dominant once again. Losing Walden in this trade also stings, since his jumpy delivery was deceiving enough to lead him to a 2.88 ERA in 50 relief innings, but any one of Chasen Shreve, David Carpenter, or David Hale could step in and bridge the gap between a starter and Kimbrel. Adding Miller, who is only 24 and has 4 years of team control remaining, should also be a significant boon. A rotation boasting Teheran/Wood/Miller in the first 3 slots may never be mistaken for Maddux/Glavine/Smoltz, but I doubt anyone will complain about having them in control of the ball.

Jason Heyward (and Jordan Walden) will be missed here in the South. Their contributions to the team will not be forgotten. But the dawn of a new era is on the horizon, one in which the Braves are slowly but surely preparing to contend once again. After years of watching this team stand pat while several division rivals became competitive, it's refreshing to see Atlanta take a gamble on the future instead of foolishly expect better days to come instantly.

Going Off The Rails On A Crazy Trade, Part 3.

In this edition of GOTROACT, I completely ignore the fact that the acronym I just came up with is incredible, and I propose a player swap between the Rockies, who would be sending off shortstop Troy Tulowitzki, and the Brewers, who would be trading left fielder Ryan Braun.

All right, even I can't tell if I'm doing this just to be facetious. But bear with me here, because there are a few parallels between these erstwhile superstars: they're both supremely talented but have trouble avoiding season-ending occurrences (injury/suspension); they're both bogging down the payroll of a relatively small-market team, and will do so for the next 6 or 7 years; and they were integral parts of their respective franchises's most recent postseason runs (although it's been 3 years since the Brew Crew appeared in the playoffs, and 5 years since the last Rocktober). Now, it's rare that we see a challenge trade of this magnitude, where both teams are unloading large contracts. In fact, we have to go all the way back to...last offseason, when the Rangers and Tigers shocked everyone by sending Ian Kinsler to Detroit and Prince Fielder to Arlington. While those two contracts have a much larger gap, in terms of remaining money, than that between Tulo and Braun, it was still viewed as a somewhat commensurate deal.

So why would a team shed one of its more onerous contracts just to take on another, similar one? In this case, it would fill a need that may not be as obvious as it seems upon first glance (again, that's kind of the point of all this): Brewers shortstops and Rockies left fielders were both pretty bad last year. In terms of Wins Above Average (WAA), which differs from Wins Above Replacement (WAR) in that players are compared to others at that position in the big leagues instead of determining their value relative to a replacement-level player, Jean Segura combined with several backups to give Milwaukee a league-worst 1.7 wins below average at shortstop in 2014, while Corey Dickerson, Carlos Gonzalez and assorted others gave Colorado a measly 0.3 wins above average in left field. There's no doubt that Tulowitzki would have made for a significant upgrade in the Brewers infield (and, even with his now-annual DL stint, might have been able to keep them afloat long enough to slide into the postseason), and while Braun certainly had a down year after being suspended for the second half of the 2013 season and battling a nerve injury in his thumb (something that does not heal quickly, mind you), there's reason to believe he could come close to his career stats if he played half of his games at the launching pad known as Coors Field.

Of course, this post wouldn't be complete without mentioning the financials, as well as emphasizing the stigma that surrounds both players. Through 2020, Braun is owed a surprisingly low $103 million, with a $20 million mutual option ($4 million buyout) for 2021, and Tulowitzki will make $114 million in that same period of time, with a $15 million team option ($4 million buyout) also for 2021. Assuming both options are picked up, Troy will only make $6 million more than Ryan over the next 7 years ($11 million if both are declined). The difference, if you're a MLB team, is mostly negligible. This is not to say that either figure isn't a huge chunk of either team's current and future payroll, and neither franchise is particularly flush (Milwaukee ranked 16th in terms of payroll last year, right above Colorado at 17th). But when you factor in the going rate for All-Star players in this day and age, those numbers almost look like mistakes. Both Tulo and Braun signed those deals several years ago, before revenue streams increased to the point that even the Mariners could shell out a quarter of a billion dollars to have the pleasure of witnessing Robinson Cano's inevitable decline in person.

As for the aforementioned encumbrances, they play a huge part in either contract getting moved. Braun's suspension for a failed drug test during the 2011 playoffs is common knowledge at this point: after winning the MVP that year, Braun supposedly registered a testosterone level five times higher than the highest result to that point. It was clear that was mostly artificial, and though he postured for a while, falsely accusing the handler of tampering with his urine sample, the Biogenesis documents revealed after the 2012 season seemed to confirm that he had indeed taken PEDs. Since returning from his suspension, he's been reviled by fans around the league, and his numbers took a serious dip last year (again, this is owing mainly to the thumb injury, but try telling that to angry baseball fans tired of hearing about drug scandals). Braun's reputation, although somewhat restored in Milwaukee, is at an all-time low. Tulowitzki has never been suspected of taking any illegal substances, but he's also never been expected to play all 162 games in a season. For that matter, he hasn't played in more than 140 games since 2011, and has played in 100 or more games just once since then. A myriad of injuries is to blame, including a torn tendon in his left quad (2008), a fractured wrist from a HBP (2010), groin surgery that sidelined him for most of the 2012 season, a fractured rib (2013), and a left hip injury that ruined his dominant 2014 season just past the halfway mark. Again, while he's the best offensive shortstop when he's on the field, he's hardly on the field anymore. Players that are prone to injury are often referred to as snakebitten. Tulowitzki must live in a snake pit.

This trade, believe it or not, will never come to fruition. Both Braun and Tulowitzki have too much remaining money due, and do not instill enough faith that they'll continue to perform at their sky-high levels, to be traded anywhere, let alone for each other. Hell, even I didn't have a strong investment in this idea. I practically argued against my suggestion throughout this post. Stay tuned for another edition of Arguing With Myself...I mean, GOTROACT. Man, I love that acronym.

Going Off The Rails On A Crazy Trade, Part 2.

As per the title and preceding post, we're back to give you another seemingly ridiculous trade proposal that actually makes a little sense. This time, I suggest that the Marlins trade right fielder Giancarlo Stanton to the Mariners for starting pitchers Taijuan Walker and Danny Hultzen, corner infielder D.J. Peterson, cash considerations, and a player to be named later.

Before you start brandishing those pitchforks, Marlins fans, I'd like to ask all 8 of you (zing!) to calm down and hear me out. Stanton is a monster. You know it, and the rest of us know it too. We all know it so well, in fact, that I don't think it's necessary to spend too much time explaining why the Mariners would want him. Every team in baseball wants him. He's a home run machine (154 in his short career), with outrageous power during an era where power is severely lacking across the game. He's still very young, and will play all of next season at the relatively tender age of 25. He's led the NL in slugging twice, the first of which (2012) he led all of MLB.

Here's where this idea becomes insulting: I'm suggesting that he spend even a small portion of his career watching line drives die in the cavernous confines of Safeco Field. This is definitely one of the more ludicrous landing spots for the young slugger. Plus, it's difficult to assess his true value, considering he's not in the commonly accepted "prime" years (while every baseball player is unique like a snowflake, these flecks tend to peak between the ages of 27 and 32 before melting) yet he's already accomplished so much with the bat. He even grades out as a pretty good fielder, with positive UZR and DRS marks every season except 2013. Hell, the only deal wherein Miami could really get commensurate value is if they shipped him to Anaheim, and even then they'd probably have to take Josh Hamilton off the Angels' hands to get Mike Trout.

So let's just look at why a trade with Seattle might be easier to abide. There's no denying that Safeco seriously suppresses home runs, but to what extent? It's 12th in baseball in home runs allowed, with 1.053 home runs allowed per game over the course of a full season (anything over 1.000 is considered to favor the batter over the pitcher), which is higher than I thought it would rank. Admittedly, it rates even lower when you isolate right-handed hitters, with a HR% (home runs per at-bat) of 2.37 percent, only ahead of Busch Stadium (Cardinals), Kauffman Stadium (Royals), PNC Park (Pirates), and...Marlins Park? Wait, seriously? Stanton's been wreaking this kind of havoc in a park that's actually LESS conducive to his power than Safeco? This might be less insane than I originally thought.

No, no, it's still squirrel-feces nutty. But there's reason to believe that Stanton could do a similar amount of damage, if not more, in Seattle than Miami. Of course, he'd have little lineup protection outside of Robinson Cano and the resilient Kyle Seager (with the slim possibility of Hanley Ramirez, if the recent rumors are to be considered valid), but what protection does he have now? Christian Yelich? Adeiny Hechavarria? Casey McGehee's one-year blip? Give me a break. He would add serious right-handed power to a starting nine that currently hosts a single righty, Mike Zunino, who despite being a catcher with a sub-.200 BA still managed to swat 22 long balls in 2014. After musing that I didn't need to explain why anyone would want Stanton, I'll finish by ending my fourth paragraph on the subject.

Now we look at what the Marlins would receive in return for The Player Formerly Known As Mike. Taijuan Walker has long been the crown jewel of Seattle's farm system, and those fruits finally came to bear last season with a 2.61 ERA (3.68 FIP) and 34 strikeouts over 38 innings (5 starts, 8 games). Keep in mind that he only turned 21 after those first 3 appearances, and will spend most of next season at that age. Combine that with his solid minor league numbers, his 4-pitch arsenal highlighted by a nasty slider, and his increasing control over said pitches, and Walker could easily contend for Cy Young votes in the near future. He's already part of an impressive rotation, behind King Felix Hernandez, Hisashi "Flying Salmon" Iwakuma (still the undefeated champion of Best Baseball Nicknames) and fellow top prospect James Paxton. But if he was on the Marlins, he'd be throwing with Nathan Eovaldi (formerly of the Dodgers, still of the 95.7 MPH fastball), Henderson Alvarez (who seemingly throws complete games at will), and of course, Jose Fernandez once he's fully recovered from Tommy John surgery. Throw Hultzen into the mix to compete with Jarred Cosart, Tom Koehler, and Andrew Heaney for the last two spots, and the Marlins suddenly have a very strong, enviable amount of depth at starting pitcher. They could even deal one or two of the aforementioned also-rans for some significant infield help. Of course, they'd get some in Peterson, a top prospect with experience at both first and third (for when McGehee or Garrett Jones go through their annual slumps), which would help assuage some of the offensive woes sure to follow with Stanton's departure. Or turn Hultzen into a closer, and deal incumbent Steve Cishek for more firepower in the lineup. Really, having that much young starting pitching to deal from (or to cover for any regulars that get injured) is a godsend.

Again, this trade will never happen. Stanton will command much more in a deal than three young but mostly unproven players and the promise of future compensation (plus, a trade is further complicated by the massive 13 year, $325 million extension that is rumored to be nearing an agreement), Walker is likely staying put, and Hultzen/Peterson/money/PTBNL just isn't enough to convince Marlins owner/professional asshole Jeffrey Loria to part with the one player he doesn't want to sell. But hey, isn't that the whole point of these posts? It is. And we'll have another stupid trade idea soon.

Going Off The Rails On A Crazy Trade, Part 1.

I hate the offseason. Hate hate hate it. Every month in between the last pitch of the World Series and the first pitch of Spring Training feels like a decade. Of course, there's the salve of the Hot Stove, and the constant rumors flying around about which free agent will sign with what team, or which player(s) will be traded and where, soothe my soul considerably. It's not much, but I'll take it.

Invariably, though, the offseason provides the less intelligent fans of this great sport with ample opportunity to wax moronic about these wheelings and dealings. Bad MLB (@BadMLB) is a wonderful Twitter account that corrals many of these hilarious trade proposals in one convenient location, and is a must follow for any baseball fan as cynical as I am. There's simply no shortage of awful trade ideas in our collective fandom.

So, if you'll allow me, I'd like to start adding some of my own.

Now, some of these trades might actually make a little bit of sense. Unlike many of my fellow bloggers, I'm not in the market to display my dearth of baseball knowledge; it should be apparent by now that I kind of know what I'm talking about when it comes to what happens on the diamond. These are simply ideas that I (or those close to me on a comparable level of understanding) think are worth exploring, if only in the alcoves of this insignificant, unimportant website. 

With that in mind, here's an interesting proposal courtesy of my younger brother: Tigers second baseman Ian Kinsler and cash to the Braves for catcher Evan Gattis and reliever Chasen Shreve.

It's no secret that second base has been a vacuous hole in Atlanta since the end of the 2010 season. The deal for Dan Uggla might not have even been made had Brooks Conrad not punted some easy plays during that season's NLDS loss to a Giants team en route to their first of 3 WS titles in 5 years. But he did, it was, and here we are on the other side. Even though the Bravos gave up little of consequence (unless you count Omar Infante taking two teams to the Fall Classic, neither of which were the Marlins), the Uggla deal will likely stand as the worst trade-and-sign in franchise history. Sure, he was the first second baseman with 5 consecutive seasons of 30+ home runs. Of course, his 33-game hit streak in 2011 was damn impressive. He was even the starting second baseman for the NL in the 2012 All-Star Game (admittedly, Rafael Furcal was the starting shortstop, so it wasn't a particularly strong year for middle infielders in the Senior Circuit). But his shoddy defense, combined with a batting average that never strayed too far away from the Mendoza line, made him an easy target for fan frustration. He was benched during the 2013 NLDS loss to the Dodgers, and released halfway through this season. He's still owed $15 million next year. The Braves are not a big-market team; what amounts to a rounding error for the Yankees can crush Atlanta for longer than you might think. At this point, it seems nigh impossible to recoup any value from Dan's time at the Ted.

Kinsler, while no spring chicken himself, is still performing at an All-Star level. Although the power he displayed in 2009 (31 homers) and 2011 (32 homers) continues to elude him, he still knocked in 92 runs and scored 100 for a Tigers team that lacked the offensive punch it had when Prince Fielder was still clogging up the cold corner. Although he is extremely pop-up friendly, and his days of going 30-30 are most likely over, his triple slash line makes him look like Rogers Hornsby compared to Uggly. He's also been one of the best defensive second basemen in the game over the last several seasons (UZR has him at 19.5 for 2014, and DRS has him pegged at 71 runs saved, both career highs by a mile), and he can still steal a good number of bases. His contract would be somewhat prohibitive as well, since he's owed $41 million through 2017, with a $12 million team option ($5 million buyout) for 2018. Again, chump change for a Detroit team that seems to stay solvent while the city around it crumbles, but a huge commitment for the smaller-market Braves. Thus, the kicking in of cash. The Tigers might have to agree to eat at least half the contract for this deal to go down. What they would get in return, though, might be the final pieces necessary to propel them back into the World Series.

Don't worry, I didn't know this was Chasen Shreve either.

Gattis has been an absolute force in Atlanta over the last two seasons, blasting 43 home runs in just 723 at-bats over that span. He's a bit of a defensive liability behind the plate and in left field, but with the added benefit of the DH spot in the AL, he would provide a much cheaper alternative for the Tigers than resigning Victor Martinez after an MVP-caliber season. Even considering the money Detroit would send to Atlanta in this scenario, they'd have enough cash freed up to take a flyer on some middle-tier free agents such as Melky Cabrera (a switch hitter like V-Mart who can also play a solid left or center field) or Asdrubal Cabrera (who's had success in the AL Central and shown some pop in his career) to add some lineup protection for Gattis and Miguel Cabrera (...Cabrera). I shouldn't have to explain why the Tigers could use Shreve, a young, solid, left-handed reliever, but I will anyway (much to nobody's surprise): the big story surrounding Detroit's early exit from this year's playoffs, and indeed their unceremonious defeats every year since 2011, is their lack of a dominant bullpen. The team has had disgustingly powerful lineups, and rotations to match (pre-Justin Verlander meltdown), but handing any lead to their late-inning guys has long been a recipe for disaster. They sought to remedy that this past offseason, bringing Joba Chamberlain and Joe Nathan on board, and they traded for Joakim Soria when the former duo predictably blew up. Alas, it was to no avail. Al Albuquerque, aside from having a name that is a pain in the ass to type, was of little consequence (admittedly, he lowered his ERA a full 2 runs from 2013), Bruce Rondon still had trouble harnessing his blazing fastball, and even hardcore Tigers fans couldn't identify Blaine Hardy by looks alone. Hardy was the lone lefty until Kyle Lobstein was taken out of the rotation. Shreve, while only appearing in 15 games as a midseason callup, notched a 0.73 ERA with 15 strikeouts in 12 1/3 innings (good for a 10.9 K/9). It wasn't just luck, either: he had a FIP of 1.43. 12 1/3 innings is an incredibly small sample size, but for a 23 year old, it's nothing to turn your nose up at.

This trade won't happen. Kinsler just arrived in Detroit this time last year and made a great first impression. Gattis will fetch much more in a trade than an over-the-hill middle infielder and salary relief. And Shreve could be the next sturdy bridge to infallible closer Craig Kimbrel. But a man can dream, right? Stay tuned for our next installment, where we'll discuss another insane trade possibility that might not seem so crazy when you really look at it.