In our next installment of FBOFW, we're taking a look at the American League Central Division.
Chicago White Sox - Being the best baseball team in Chicago is just not enough for the White Sox (go figure). Since their 2005 World Series win, they haven't done much in the way of returning to the postseason. They let controversial manager Ozzie Guillen take his talents to South Beach at the conclusion of the 2011 season, and shortly after that they hired rookie skipper Robin Ventura to take over on the South Side. After leading in the standings through most of 2012, they faltered down the stretch and allowed the Tigers to leapfrog them in the last few weeks to win the division. The offense wasn't horrible, with Adam Dunn rebounding from the worst single season numbers for a batter since Ramiro Mendoza (Dunn's .159/.292/.277 were by far the worst of his career, and in fact may be the worst of ANY career) to hit 41 bombs and knock in 96 runs in 2012, and Alex Rios (.304/25/91) having a similar comeback year, the offense exploded to help the Pale Hose rank 7th in runs scored, as well as ranking no lower than 15th in any other offensive category. The pitching wasn't spectacular, but Jake Peavy (194 strikeouts in 219 innings) began to show signs of life again, and Chris Sale (17-8 with 192 K's and a 3.05 ERA) proved that an ace doesn't necessarily have to throw hard or fast, just throw strikes. While the Sox aren't getting any younger (even after losing 36 year old catcher A.J. Pierzynski and 35 year old third baseman Kevin Youkilis, first baseman and captain Paul Konerko is also 36 and the farm system is severely lacking in promising young talent), they've shown that they can truly be a force to be reckoned with...at least through August. They need something to keep them strong through September. Good luck figuring out what that something is.
BEST CASE SCENARIO: Dunn hits 50 homers, Sale wins 20 games, Gordon Beckham finally reaches his potential, Peavy continues to revitalize his career, and the Sox win the division for the first time since 2008.
WORST CASE SCENARIO: Losing Youk and A.J. affects the offense so negatively that they rank last in the AL in runs, Dunn hits under .150, and the bullpen blows more saves than Heath Bell.
WHAT THEY NEED TO SUCCEED: Patience, both at the plate and on the bases. White Sox hitters averaged only 3.76 pitches per plate appearance, and ranked 10th in caught stealing with 43 missed attempts. If they take more time with their approach, the offense could potentially be amazing.
Cleveland Indians - This will be the year. This will finally be the season, after the last two, where the Indians will start off well, and actually execute in the second half. Offseason pickups Michael Bourn, Nick Swisher and Mark Reynolds will add some desperately needed power to this lineup, joining Asdrubal Cabrera and Carlos Santana in the quest to bring some runs to Progressive Field. They've turned their rotation into a possible strong point in a few years with the acquisition of Trevor Bauer from the Diamondbacks (giving up their last year of Shin-Soo Choo to get him), and the signing of veteran hurler Brett Myers could help take some pressure off of Justin Masterson, allowing him to focus on becoming the ace Cleveland has desperately needed for years. Their bullpen, behind outspoken closer Chris Perez, is yet another reason to believe that this Indians team can finally, FINALLY stay strong after the All-Star break and reach the postseason for the first time in 5 years. Or...maybe this won't be the year. It'll be hard for the Tribe to do any worse in 2013 than they did in 2012: although they managed to rank 11th in OBP, they were in the lower half of all other offensive stats, mainly thanks to the stifling of Carlos Santana, who still managed to lead the team with 18 home runs and 76 RBI with limited opportunities. The team foolishly resigned Grady Sizemore to a 1-year deal last offseason, and appear to have finally cut ties with him after yet another disappointing year where he missed nearly the entire season. Hopefully, these offseason acquisitions will put the Indians back on the path they seemed to be on in the late 1990s.
BEST CASE SCENARIO: Sizemore returns midseason at full health and hits 25 home runs, Cabrera doesn't make an error the entire season, and Bauer leads the team to a postseason berth.
WORST CASE SCENARIO: Bauer crashes and burns, the rest of this makeshift rotation does the same, and the offense is so horrendous that the team's front office mulls over getting Albert Belle out of retirement.
WHAT THEY NEED TO SUCCEED: A vaunted offense, or at least something better than what they've had for the past few years. While Reynolds and Swisher normally hit for a very low average and strike out entirely too often, their power numbers make up for their shortcomings. Between them and Santana, you can safely expect at least 75 home runs, something that may boost them above 25th in moonshots.
Detroit Tigers - Normally, when a team gets swept in the World Series, the expectations are mixed for the following season. Clearly, they're good enough to go nearly all the way, but they must be missing something vital to fall short after such a dominant postseason run. After shocking the baseball world with their late signing of Prince Fielder roughly this time last year (a move of necessity after Victor Martinez tore his ACL weeks before Spring Training), the Tigers seemed all but destined to make their second World Series in the last decade. With a core of Fielder, Miguel Cabrera and Justin Verlander, it was easy to get excited in Motown. Somehow, they only ranked 11th in runs scored, but ranked no lower than 6th in any other offensive category, thanks to Cabrera's majestic season (.330/44/139, good enough for the first Triple Crown season from a batter since 1967, which certainly helped Miggy win the MVP this year), Fielder's streak of 30 home runs and 100 RBI still going strong, and Verlander continuing to mystify the American League with his ability to pitch faster in the 9th inning than he did in the 2nd. While they trailed the White Sox for most of the season, they managed to leapfrog them in the final months and, after a nail-biting ALDS against the A's and a less intense ALCS against the Yanks, they found themselves poised to win it all. Unfortunately, the Giants swept them and left them stunned. Thankfully, this is a team built for the long run, with their Big Three all still under 30 and the closest one to free agency, Verlander, is still under contract for 2 more years. Don't count the Detroit crew out for a repeat appearance in the 2013 Fall Classic.
BEST CASE SCENARIO: Fielder and Cabrera smash 60 home runs a piece, Verlander finally becomes a member of the Perfect Game Club, and the Motown boys finish what they started last year.
WORST CASE SCENARIO: Torii Hunter and V-Mart don't perform nearly as well as the team hoped, the rotation can't back up the greatest pitcher in today's game, and the Tigers slowly whimper as they fall to last place.
WHAT THEY NEED TO SUCCEED: A closer. Jose Valverde isn't coming back, Phil Coke isn't the 9th-inning master they need, and going with unproven rookie Bruce Rondon is a true gamble. Tigers relievers blew 16 saves in 2012, which is right around the league average, but for a would-be contender, they need more stability for the last 3 outs of any game.
Kansas City Royals - In 2015, the Royals will win the pennant. Before that...well, probably more of the same. For a team that hasn't made the playoffs in almost 30 years (after winning the World Series in 1985), there is actually a lot to be hopeful for in the Show-Me State. The Royals have managed to stockpile a lot of amazing talent through their years of high draft picks (the lone shining benefit of consistent losing), resulting in an infield of Eric Hosmer, Johnny Giavotella, Alcides Escobar and Mike Moustakas, all of whom are close to being perennial All-Stars, or at least Gold Glovers and Silver Sluggers. Their outfield, which was supposed to contain top prospect Wil Myers before a fateful trade with the Rays, leaves more to be desired (especially with Jeff Francoeur projected as the starting right fielder), but is still passable when coupled with an infield that could potentially instill more fear than Tinkers to Evers to Chance. Their rotation was dreadful last year, as it had been for quite some time, so they traded Myers along with a few other prospects to the Rays and got James Shields and Wade Davis in return. While Davis is hardly a game-changer, Shields immediately gives this staff something it's lacked since Zack Greinke was traded: a true ace. The team also resigned Jeremy Guthrie, who had more success with the Royals last year than he did with the Rockies, and traded for Ervin Santana, who posted career highs in home runs allowed and ERA last season. Between these four, and last year's Opening Day starter Bruce Chen, this is a Royals rotation that might honestly be the best since the days of Bret Saberhagen. That's not saying much, but it's about as good as it's going to get right now. They lost their closer, Joakim Soria, twice: first to Tommy John surgery, then to the Rangers this offseason, so expect their reliance on the lineup to balance out all the runs the pitching allows to grow.
BEST CASE SCENARIO: Moustakas and Butler become a modern day Brett and McRae, and the rotation holds up just enough to launch the Royals back into the postseason for the first time in 3 decades.
WORST CASE SCENARIO: The wellspring of talent still can't be properly tapped, Guthrie and Santana throw even worse than last year, and the Boys in Blue endure more "There's always next year".
WHAT THEY NEED TO SUCCEED: Like the Red Sox, they need a time machine. Only this time, they need it to go forward 3 or 4 years.
Minnesota Twins - The last 2 years have not been kind to the Twins. After a stretch in which they won the division 6 times from 2002 to 2010, 2011 and 2012 were extremely rough, seeing the team post their worst records (63-99 in 2011, 66-96 in 2012) since the new millennium began. Their two former MVPs, Justin Morneau and Joe Mauer, have been outrageously disappointing since their award-winning campaigns, the rest of the offense has absolutely crumbled around them (ranked last in the AL with 131 home runs), and the rotation, led by oft-injured stalwart Carl Pavano, was atrocious, ranking second to last in baseball with 62 quality starts, third to last in baseball with a 4.77 ERA, and third to last in baseball with 892 runs allowed. They strengthened their awful rotation by signing Kevin Correia and Mike Pelfrey and traded for Vance Worley (sending Ben Revere to Philadelphia), all of whom could bolster the starting staff enough to help them post a positive run differential. Then again, that has a lot to do with the offense. Morneau still seems dazed from a concussion suffered in 2010, and Mauer's leg troubles coupled with his willingness to be in every commercial he's asked about means that the two linchpins of the Twins' lineup are shells of their former selves. Third baseman Trevor Plouffe showed flashes of brilliance in his rookie campaign, and Ryan Doumit was an acceptable backup backstop, but without a true power hitter (unless Morneau can find his swing again), this team is doomed to occupy the bottom of the AL Central for the foreseeable future, what with the emergence of the Indians and Royals and the continued success of the Tigers and White Sox
BEST CASE SCENARIO: Mauer catches 140 games, Morneau makes one final attempt to return to his MVP form, and the Twinkies finally begin their climb back to the top of the division.
WORST CASE SCENARIO: The additions of Worley and Correia backfire, their lack of a proven closer hurts even more, and Mauer misses 90 games while the team loses 100 for the first time since 1982.
WHAT THEY NEED TO SUCCEED: This team's success, at least for the next few years, relies entirely on if Mauer is healthy or not. A catcher with bilateral leg weakness has absolutely no value, and while Mauer contributes regularly at first base or DH, he needs to stay behind the plate and call games like he did when the Twins were making the playoffs every year or so.
TBF's 2013 AL Central Final Standings:
Detroit Tigers
Cleveland Indians
Chicago White Sox
Kansas City Royals
Minnesota Twins
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