For the second to last installment of FBOFW, we're taking a look at the National League Central Division.
Chicago Cubs - Now that the Astros are in the American League, it's hard to think of a team in this division that will miss them more than the Cubs, purely because they're now the main punching bag in the Central. It's no secret that the Cubbies have been having a rough century, but the hirings of Theo Epstein and Jed Hoyer to run the front office last year are still seen as promising developments. They made sure to hold onto star shortstop Starlin Castro, signing him to a 7 year, $60 million contract that will keep Castro on the North Side until 2020, meaning he is the foundation upon which the Cubbies will try to build their first World Series winners since 1908 (remember 1908?). They also swung a trade last year for Anthony Rizzo, who projects to be their first baseman of the future. Combine them with Darwin Barney, notorious for being the most defensively skilled second baseman in the National League, and Ian Stewart, their acceptable stopgap at third base until Josh Vitters finally reaches his potential, and the Cubs actually have a solid, powerful infield. The outfield leaves a lot to be desired, with Alfonso Soriano's contract (through 2014) tying the front office's hands to some extent, even though he's put up respectable numbers over the course of his megadeal (146 home runs, 475 RBI since joining the team in 2007), and veterans like Nate Schierholtz and David DeJesus are acceptable outfielders while Jorge Soler and Matt Szczur continue to develop. The rotation needs a little work, as Matt Garza and Jeff Samardjiza still need to learn a little more control, and the bullpen is absolutely dreadful behind closer Carlos Marmol (3 blown saves and a 1.54 WHIP in 2012), but with the signings of Edwin Jackson to shore up the rotation and Kyuji Fujikawa to replace Marmol as closer, this team may slowly be inching towards contention.
BEST CASE SCENARIO: Castro breaks the single season hit record, Rizzo hits 30 bombs, Soriano shows he's still got some gas left in the tank, and the team only loses 90 games. That's the BEST case scenario.
WORST CASE SCENARIO: Castro tears his ACL in May, Garza and Samardjiza lose 30 games between the two of them, and the Curse of the Billy Goat continues indefinitely.
WHAT THEY NEED TO SUCCEED: To stay the course. Epstein and Hoyer outlined a clear rebuilding plan that WILL pay dividends, as long as they don't decide to go back on their methods.
Cincinnati Reds - I love the Reds. It's not something I talk about often. They won their last World Series the year I was born, which will immediately foster positive feelings in a baseball fan. For the past few seasons, they've seen a resurgence in power, with sluggers like Joey Votto and Jay Bruce launching baseballs into the stands at an impressive rate, as well as hitters like Brandon Phillips and Zack Cozart, both of whom don't have a high amount of power but are dangerous on the bases nonetheless. They gained a potential ace in Mat Latos last offseason, sending Edinson Volquez to the Padres in return, and he turned in a good campaign, going 14-4 with a 3.42 ERA and 186 strikeouts. However, it was Johnny Cueto who truly shined in 2012: 19 wins, a 2.78 ERA, and 170 strikeouts helped him become one of the premiere pitchers in the division. They acquired Shin-Soo Choo from the Indians earlier this offseason, who projects to be their centerfielder and an adequate leadoff hitter. They signed midsesason pickup Jonathon Broxton and then resigned him this year to be their closer, signalling that the plan to turn fireballer Aroldis Chapman into a starter is finally going to be put into action. While Chapman throws faster than any other pitcher in history (his 105.1 MPH pitch in 2011 is the fastest ever officially recorded), his fastball won't be enough to turn him into a true ace. The Reds' coaching staff will have to find a way to help Chapman develop his slider to drop a little more, and if they can add a serious curveball to his repertoire, no one will ever make contact with his pitches. This team truly has nearly everything they need to win it all in 2013, as long as the pieces fit together.
BEST CASE SCENARIO: They win the division AND make it past the first round of the playoffs. They've had unceremonious first-round exits in 2010 and 2012, both after winning the Central.
WORST CASE SCENARIO: Votto and Bruce regress, Phillips loses his speed, Bronson Arroyo's age finally catches up with him, and Chapman's transition to the rotation is a complete failure.
WHAT THEY NEED TO SUCCEED: Regardless of anything else, this team lives and dies by Votto and Chapman. If both are healthy and at full strength, there simply is no stopping this team, but with Votto's recent injuries and Chapman's skill set still unproven over more than an inning of work at a time, we have yet to see what the Reds are truly capable of.
Milwaukee Brewers - Just like the Cardinals, the Brewers had to watch their power-hitting first baseman leave in free agency, with 2012 being the first post-Prince season. After making it to the NLCS in 2011, they regressed a bit last season. Then-reigning MVP Ryan Braun had allegedly failed a drug test during the postseason and faced a 50-game suspension, but it was overturned before Spring Training. They signed Aramis Ramirez and Alex Gonzalez to help out the offense, as well as adding some solid defenders to the left side of the infield, but Gonzalez tore his ACL in April and missed the entire season. They traded Zack Greinke away midseason after realizing the pitcher would be far too expensive to afford later, and got back promising young shortstop Jean Segura from the Angels, who will be an upgrade from Gonzalez in every single way. Mat Gamel, the theoretical successor to Fielder, is almost done rehabbing from a torn ACL, but Corey Hart, who was supposed to slot in as the starting first baseman (30 homers and 83 RBI in 2012), will now be out until May after a knee surgery. The rotation is worrisome, but behind Yovani Gallardo (16-9, the only returning starter with a winning record), they should be able to stay semi-relevant when compared to other starting staffs in this division. With John Axford as the team's closer, the bullpen will be able to skillfully handle any potential wins or saves that the starters can't take care of. While 2012 was pretty disappointing for several reasons, and losing Prince Fielder and Zack Greinke in the span of 6 months is always a drawback, the Brewers could feasibly contend in 2013.
BEST CASE SCENARIO: Braun wins another MVP award behind another strong year, Segura or Mat Gamel wins Rookie of the Year, and the Brew Crew makes another postseason run.
WORST CASE SCENARIO: Axford and the bullpen implode, Braun's moonshots are not enough to keep the offense alive, and somewhere in Detroit, Fielder quietly chuckles to himself after the regular season ends.
WHAT THEY NEED TO SUCCEED: To get their rotation figured out. After losing Greinke and Shaun Marcum, Gallardo leads a 5-man rotation with Chris Narveson and several unproven unknowns. While the bullpen has been improved with the signings of Burke Badenhop and Tom Gorzelanny, they still need an impact starter, whether they come from the minor leagues or they sign Kyle Lohse, the only remaining frontline hurler.
Pittsburgh Pirates - 20 losing seasons...it's hard to even fathom that. There are young Pirates fans who have never seen their team in the playoffs, or even notch a winning record. Obviously, the Bucs aren't the only team in this division with long-suffering fans (I'd imagine Cubs fans saying "You think 20 years is bad? Come to Wrigley for a few days, you'll feel a lot better about yourself."), but there are quite a few reasons to expect the Pirates to set sail in October once more. Andrew McCutchen, their centerfielder for at least the next half-decade after signing a steal of a contract (7 years, $66 million), hit .327/31/96 in his age 26 season, an extremely promising sign of things to come over the course of his new pact. The offseason acquisition of A.J. Burnett (who surprised everyone and went 16-10 with 180 strikeouts and a 3.51 ERA in his first season outside of Yankee Stadium) and the first-half emergence of James McDonald (who went 10-3 with a 2.93 ERA through the middle of July before he crashed and ended the year at 12-8 and a 4.21 ERA) helped the rotation stay afloat, and the bullpen was dominant behind Joel Hanrahan, who will now be closing games for the Red Sox. With Pedro Alvarez finally starting to touch that high ceiling we always knew he'd reach, hitting 30 home runs and 85 RBI (admittedly, his .784 OPS leaves much to be desired, but as a third baseman who's only 25, he has time to improve on that), the infield looks just a little stronger with the addition of Russell Martin behind the plate. The team ranked 8th in triples last year (37), a testament to the power and speed they have. If they can make it blossom, the Jolly Roger may finally be hoisted in October once again.
BEST CASE SCENARIO: McCutchen, in an MVP-caliber season, takes the team to a winning record for the first time since 1992, and even though they still miss the playoffs, baseball has been revitalized in Pittsburgh, and fans look to 2014 with something they haven't felt in decades...hope.
WORST CASE SCENARIO: ...Make that 21 losing seasons.
WHAT THEY NEED TO SUCCEED: Just a few more wins. That's it. Just a few more wins. They raised their win total from 57 in 2010 to 72 in 2011 to 79 in 2012, so they're just on the cusp of .500 and beyond. They've shown they can perform well just past the All-Star break, so if they can find a way to get 3 or 4 more wins, the streak of futility will finally be snapped.
St. Louis Cardinals - For a team that lost the best player in today's game, the Cardinals had a pretty solid follow-up season after winning it all in 2011. They watched as Albert Pujols, the face of their franchise for the previous 11 years, signed with the Angels, and had to deal with the retirement of both manager Tony LaRussa and hitting coach Dave Duncan. They signed former catcher Mike Matheny to manage the team, and signed Carlos Beltran to a 2-year deal that immediately produced dividends, as he led a St. Louis squad with former World Series MVP David Freese. Midseason callups like Pete Kozma and Matt Carpenter strengthened a lineup that still contained Matt Holliday as well as Freese and Beltran, and although Chris Carpenter missed the majority of the season after a monstrous 2011, newly-rehabbed Adam Wainwright stepped in to fill the void just like Carpenter had done for him the previous season. Jason Motte managed to notch 45 saves, proving that his designation as the team's closer was no mistake. They managed to make it all the way to the NLCS, and had it not been for the Giants' magical record in elimination games, they might have had a chance to be repeat champs for the first time in franchise history. Not bad for a team that lost its top offensive producer and brilliant skipper. Even better, they were 1st in baseball in OBP, and ranked in the top 10 in all other offensive stats. The pitching, while spectacular, left a little to be desired, dropping as low as 18th in opponents' batting average. Still, it's hard to argue with the way the Cards are doing things lately, and as long as they can stay healthy, there doesn't appear to be much that other teams in this division can do to slow them down. It may be yet another Redbird October this year.
BEST CASE SCENARIO: Freese, Kozma and Carpenter inject new life into the lineup, the rotation wins 65 games, and the Cards fly under the radar until they raise the Commissioner's Trophy.
WORST CASE SCENARIO: The lineup sputters behind a regression from Beltran and Holliday, Motte can't close games out anymore, and they finally have a moment to sincerely regret letting Pujols walk.
WHAT THEY NEED TO SUCCEED: They needed a few more reliable arms in the bullpen, and they got them when they signed Randy Choate and Mitchell Boggs to help out Motte near the end of games. The only problem now is to figure out what they'll do now that Carpenter will miss the entire season, and may not ever pitch again, due to his recurring nerve injury.
TBF's 2013 NL Central Predictions:
Cincinnati Reds
St. Louis Cardinals
Milwaukee Brewers
Pittsburgh Pirates
Chicago Cubs
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