You can see why Tanaka, a complete unknown as far as Major League Baseball goes, would be attractive not just to teams in desperate need of pitching but any team hoping to contend in the next 5 years: his stats from last season, and indeed several seasons before that, are the kind of numbers you'd see if you cheated in MLB '14 The Show. His numbers for last year need no introduction; 24-0, 1.27 ERA and 183 strikeouts in 212 innings, all capped off by Rakuten's first Japan Series win since their founding in 2005. What was news to me is that his numbers in 2013 look pretty similar to what he did in 2012 and 2011: 10-4 and 19-5, 1.82 and 1.27, 169 and 241 (career high) in 173 and 226.1. Therefore, this season wasn't an aberration for Masahiro, he's been pretty consistent in his dominance. Thanks to the new posting system, any team can bid up to $20 million for the opportunity to negotiate with him, although in the event of multiple highest bidders, he can choose the team he wants to talk to, making him a virtual free agent. The posting fee does not count towards a team's luxury tax and it only has to be paid if he picks them, meaning it would be foolish for any team to not at least consider bidding. He's still quite young at 25, meaning even a 7 year deal (early reports indicate most of his offers are for at least 6 years) would have him hitting the market at 32, when he could possibly have a very impressive MLB resume and most likely still have plenty left in the tank.
That's still a lot of uncertainty in regards to how he'll perform here, though. And, if you're anything like me (hopefully you aren't, it's no picnic), that creates a lot of doubt and skepticism. The cautionary tales are too numerous to ignore. Sure, Yu Darvish has been spectacular since jumping the Pacific, and Hisashi Iwakuma (whose nickname, The Flying Salmon, is the best today) had a breakout 2013, but what of Kei Igawa? Hideki Irabu? Daisuke Matsuzaka after his rookie season? Even Hideo Nomo didn't have the MLB career many assumed he would based on his Nippon Professional League numbers. It seems like a few Japanese pitchers have found success as closers or middle relievers: Hideki Okajima and Koji Uehara have both been part of Red Sox championship teams in non-starting capacities. There have been absolutely zero indications that any team wants Tanaka coming into the game later than the first inning, obviously with good reason. If I were running a Major League team (HAH!), I'd probably need to write out a few checks for the posting bid because I'd keep drooling over them while writing them out, but at the same time, I'd be a little hesitant. Baseball in Japan, while mostly similar to our national pastime, is not the same game. The baseball is smaller and tougher to hit, pitchers go every 6 days instead of 5, and they often pitch fewer innings as a result. Tanaka's been great since he came up in 2007, but he's only thrown more than 200 innings twice in his career. Throwing an average of 185 innings, while nothing to turn your nose up at, isn't the kind of production that teams in need of a frontline starter are going to be chomping at the bit to overpay for. His strikeout numbers aren't bad either, but most Japanese hurlers see those numbers dip a bit after making the switch. None of this bodes particularly well for Tanaka, but all things considered, he's pretty much the best guy available.
So where will Masahiro be pitching in 2014? The popular choices are the Yankees, Dodgers, Diamondbacks and Cubs, with the Angels and Astros considered strong contenders vying for his services as well. He'd be a massive boost to any of these franchises, but his value would be maximized if he lands in New York or Los Angeles (not Anaheim). Should he join the Yankees, he immediately becomes the Opening Day starter next season, depending on how much faith the front office has in a CC Sabathia bounceback campaign. He'd join Sabathia, Hiroki Kuroda, another former NPB pitcher who has sustained moderate success over here, Ivan Nova, and [insert over-the-hill, overpaid, former All-Star free agent pitcher here] in a rotation with low expectations. Conversely, if he ends up with the Dodgers, he makes one of the top 3 starting staffs in today's game unquestionably the best. Here's what that rotation looks like:
Clayton Kershaw
Zack Greinke
Hyun-Jin Ryu
Masahiro Tanka
Dan Haren
You know, as much as I hate the Dodgers for their Yankees imitation, I think I just convinced myself that I want to see Masahiro end up in Hollywood.
It'll be a few more days before we find out where Tanaka will be pitching next season, but one thing is clear: for all his perceived flaws, his moderately light workload to this point, and the expected regression that comes with playing in a brand new country with a different set of rules, Masahiro will get paid handsomely, his signing will finally establish the market for the remaining free agent starters, and whatever team signs him will cross their fingers and pray to the baseball gods that he doesn't end up like Tomo Ohka.