All right, even I can't tell if I'm doing this just to be facetious. But bear with me here, because there are a few parallels between these erstwhile superstars: they're both supremely talented but have trouble avoiding season-ending occurrences (injury/suspension); they're both bogging down the payroll of a relatively small-market team, and will do so for the next 6 or 7 years; and they were integral parts of their respective franchises's most recent postseason runs (although it's been 3 years since the Brew Crew appeared in the playoffs, and 5 years since the last Rocktober). Now, it's rare that we see a challenge trade of this magnitude, where both teams are unloading large contracts. In fact, we have to go all the way back to...last offseason, when the Rangers and Tigers shocked everyone by sending Ian Kinsler to Detroit and Prince Fielder to Arlington. While those two contracts have a much larger gap, in terms of remaining money, than that between Tulo and Braun, it was still viewed as a somewhat commensurate deal.
So why would a team shed one of its more onerous contracts just to take on another, similar one? In this case, it would fill a need that may not be as obvious as it seems upon first glance (again, that's kind of the point of all this): Brewers shortstops and Rockies left fielders were both pretty bad last year. In terms of Wins Above Average (WAA), which differs from Wins Above Replacement (WAR) in that players are compared to others at that position in the big leagues instead of determining their value relative to a replacement-level player, Jean Segura combined with several backups to give Milwaukee a league-worst 1.7 wins below average at shortstop in 2014, while Corey Dickerson, Carlos Gonzalez and assorted others gave Colorado a measly 0.3 wins above average in left field. There's no doubt that Tulowitzki would have made for a significant upgrade in the Brewers infield (and, even with his now-annual DL stint, might have been able to keep them afloat long enough to slide into the postseason), and while Braun certainly had a down year after being suspended for the second half of the 2013 season and battling a nerve injury in his thumb (something that does not heal quickly, mind you), there's reason to believe he could come close to his career stats if he played half of his games at the launching pad known as Coors Field.
Of course, this post wouldn't be complete without mentioning the financials, as well as emphasizing the stigma that surrounds both players. Through 2020, Braun is owed a surprisingly low $103 million, with a $20 million mutual option ($4 million buyout) for 2021, and Tulowitzki will make $114 million in that same period of time, with a $15 million team option ($4 million buyout) also for 2021. Assuming both options are picked up, Troy will only make $6 million more than Ryan over the next 7 years ($11 million if both are declined). The difference, if you're a MLB team, is mostly negligible. This is not to say that either figure isn't a huge chunk of either team's current and future payroll, and neither franchise is particularly flush (Milwaukee ranked 16th in terms of payroll last year, right above Colorado at 17th). But when you factor in the going rate for All-Star players in this day and age, those numbers almost look like mistakes. Both Tulo and Braun signed those deals several years ago, before revenue streams increased to the point that even the Mariners could shell out a quarter of a billion dollars to have the pleasure of witnessing Robinson Cano's inevitable decline in person.
As for the aforementioned encumbrances, they play a huge part in either contract getting moved. Braun's suspension for a failed drug test during the 2011 playoffs is common knowledge at this point: after winning the MVP that year, Braun supposedly registered a testosterone level five times higher than the highest result to that point. It was clear that was mostly artificial, and though he postured for a while, falsely accusing the handler of tampering with his urine sample, the Biogenesis documents revealed after the 2012 season seemed to confirm that he had indeed taken PEDs. Since returning from his suspension, he's been reviled by fans around the league, and his numbers took a serious dip last year (again, this is owing mainly to the thumb injury, but try telling that to angry baseball fans tired of hearing about drug scandals). Braun's reputation, although somewhat restored in Milwaukee, is at an all-time low. Tulowitzki has never been suspected of taking any illegal substances, but he's also never been expected to play all 162 games in a season. For that matter, he hasn't played in more than 140 games since 2011, and has played in 100 or more games just once since then. A myriad of injuries is to blame, including a torn tendon in his left quad (2008), a fractured wrist from a HBP (2010), groin surgery that sidelined him for most of the 2012 season, a fractured rib (2013), and a left hip injury that ruined his dominant 2014 season just past the halfway mark. Again, while he's the best offensive shortstop when he's on the field, he's hardly on the field anymore. Players that are prone to injury are often referred to as snakebitten. Tulowitzki must live in a snake pit.
This trade, believe it or not, will never come to fruition. Both Braun and Tulowitzki have too much remaining money due, and do not instill enough faith that they'll continue to perform at their sky-high levels, to be traded anywhere, let alone for each other. Hell, even I didn't have a strong investment in this idea. I practically argued against my suggestion throughout this post. Stay tuned for another edition of Arguing With Myself...I mean, GOTROACT. Man, I love that acronym.
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