Friday, December 19, 2014

Bless Me, Father, For I Want To Contend.

The MLB offseason is a funny thing. With free agents signing at random and trades materializing seemingly out of thin air, it's almost as if the downtime is a pennant race all on its own, one that gives no indication of any team actually being in the lead. This offseason in particular has given us a myriad of fascinating transactions, 95 percent of which have involved the hapless team in San Diego. Whether or not they'll remain hapless for long remains to be seen, but until then, let's take a moment to appreciate (or ridicule, depending on your loyalties) what the Padres have done so far this winter.

First, let's look back at the Padres of yesteryear. While their rotation was surprisingly spectacular (ranking in the top 10 in ERA, quality starts, WHIP and home runs allowed despite ranking 27th in innings pitched), the offensive production was historically awful, ranking dead last in the majors across the board. Seriously. Outside of triples (they somehow ranked 12th, with 30) and homers (their 109 just edged out the Cardinals and Royals), the Friars were stuck at the bottom of the barrel in every offensive category. They ranked 10th in strikeouts. They were 17th in stolen bases. They were one of 3 teams (including the Braves and Rangers, both of whom ranked above San Diego) to record fewer than 400 extra base hits. Their .226 team batting average wasn't just the lowest in the league, it was 2 points away from being the worst in team history (only the 1969 Padres were worse, with a .225 average) as well as being the 5th lowest batting average by a single team in National League history. The Pads weren't just bad at the plate last year. They were atrocious. Tony Gwynn sadly passed away in June, but they could have rolled his corpse out for every game after the All-Star break and he still would have outhit the rest of the team.

So, when new general manager A.J. Preller was hired in August, he looked at the team he inherited and, presumably after vomiting a few times and drinking several stiff alcoholic beverages, got to work on a plan to revamp the lineup and make it look something like a major league team. Here's a short list of the players Preller's contingent has traded for since the World Series ended:

Matt Kemp, outfielder formerly of the Dodgers
Wil Myers, outfielder formerly of the Rays
Justin Upton, outfielder formerly of the Braves
Derek Norris, catcher formerly of the Athletics

This doesn't include Will Middlebrooks, third baseman for the Red Sox, who the team is currently in talks to acquire as well. Even if that trade doesn't come to pass (UPDATE: It did!), look at that list. Those are 4 bats that could feasibly provide 15-25 homers apiece, even in the cavernous confines of Petco Park. Hey, if Jedd Gyorko can hit 20+ homers a year there, don't tell me Kemp, Myers and Upton can't, especially since two of those 3 have considerable experience in the NL West.

Does Preller think he's playing fantasy baseball instead of the real thing...?
When it comes to the players the Padres have shipped out to those teams, though, it appears that the team has mortgaged a large amount of future value to win in 2015 and/or 2016. San Diego has (or, I guess, had) one of the stronger farm systems in baseball heading into the offseason. While they've managed to hold onto catching prospect Austin Hedges and pitching prospect Matt Wisler, they've still had to send out a lot of potential talent. To acquire Myers, they sent 2014 first rounder Trea Turner to the Rays, who subsequently flipped the shortstop prospect to the Nationals. They shipped lefty prospect Max Fried (currently rehabbing from Tommy John surgery but still one of their top 10 prospects) to the Braves in the Upton deal, along with middle infielder Jace Peterson, who had been one of their more intriguing minor leaguers. They sent pitcher Zach Eflin as part of the package for Kemp to Los Angeles, who also flipped him to Philadelphia for Jimmy Rollins. Not only have these moves changed the face of the Padres, they've also been the catalyst for several other teams to improve on San Diego's behalf.

It's likely the Friars aren't done dealing just yet. As it stands now, the team has 3 catchers, even after sending Yasmani Grandal and Rene Rivera to LA and Tampa, respectively. This is due to the Dodgers sending Tim Federowicz along with Kemp and Ryan Hanigan coming over with Myers from the Rays. After picking up Norris, it seems inevitable that San Diego will deal at least one of the three guys blocking Hedges (UPDATE: They did! Hanigan was traded for Middlebrooks). The team also has approximately 87 outfielders after all these trades, so they've got more than enviable depth to deal from there. Any combination of Will Venable, Seth Smith, Cameron Maybin and the oft-injured Carlos Quentin could feasibly be on the move. Of course, with Kemp's extremely spotty track record, the Pads would do well to keep at least one of those guys. Even after depleting most of the farm system, the Padres still have outfielders like Rymer Liriano and Hunter Renfroe waiting in the wings. They, too, could be dealt, but that seems counterproductive, since they're both still top prospects, both in the Padres' system and baseball overall, and neither has seen any big league action yet.

I can't tell if Quentin's smiling because he knows he might not be in San Diego much longer, or for some other reason.
Moreover, the team still has several positions of need. Even after adding all this firepower, they need warm bodies at shortstop and third base, previously occupied by Everth Cabrera (who probably isn't coming back, after all the headaches caused by his legal troubles) and Chase Headley (who resigned with the same Yankee team that traded for him this past July). Middlebrooks would certainly go a long way towards filling the hole at third, and if he can finally put it all together, he might resemble the star Red Sox fans (read: schmucks) have been waiting for him to become. Turner might have competed for the shortstop job in Spring Training, but even though he can't officially be traded until June as a player to be named later, he's technically a National now. It might be difficult for the Pads to find a team with a solid shortstop that also needs outfield help. They'll have to search high and low for...oh, right! They won't even have to look outside their division. The Rockies have made it clear time and again that they won't deal Troy Tulowitzki for anything less than the contents of Fort Knox, but Preller is a man obsessed and has already shown that he's not afraid to make a trade with a division rival. Then again, this proposal might be better suited for our Crazy Trade series.

Predictions in baseball are about as informed as a fake Ken Rosenthal account on Twitter, and they end up being right almost as often. But I think we can safely say that the Padres' offense will definitely improve by leaps and bounds in 2015. That's pretty easy to do when your team has just recorded one of the worst offensive seasons of all time, but I digress. This winter's acquisitions should give a huge injection to a lineup that was basically Gyorko and seven piles of flaming garbage last year. With a solid rotation fronted by Tyson Ross, Andrew Cashner, Ian Kennedy and Odrisamer Despaigne, and a great bullpen led by closer Joaquin Benoit in a walk year, there's seemingly little to worry about on the pitching side. Taking a flyer on Brandon Morrow and perpetual reclamation project Josh Johnson should provide even further depth on the bump, provided those two stay healthy (which they're not known for).

It's hard to call the Padres contenders just yet. The Dodgers are always looming as a powerhouse, the Diamondbacks should be markedly improved with their own offseason moves, and the Giants just won their third title in 5 years. Still, if a few things break right, it's not out of the question to see the Friars snag a Wild Card spot in the next couple of seasons. And for a team that hasn't played in October since 2006, that might be all they need to bring baseball back to relevance in San Diego.

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