Saturday, November 23, 2013

The Daily Grind - 11/23

On today's Daily Grind, we'll start with a look at what is, by far, the most intriguing free agent this offseason.


Robinson Cano is one of the top second basemen in baseball today. This is not now, nor has it ever been, a question. He hits for average and power, he can field and throw beautifully, and he does these things so well that you don't even mind that he doesn't run particularly well on the basepaths (in 9 years, he has 38 stolen bases out of 66 attempts, not exactly Henderson-like). He's durable, having played in 159 games or more per year since the beginning of the 2007 season. Still, the million dollar question...rather, the $300 million question, is if he's worth the largest guaranteed contract in baseball history. And the answer is not difficult to arrive at; it's a loud, resounding "Absolutely not". He recently turned 31, and if we've learned anything from the monstrous contracts given to Alex Rodriguez (twice), Albert Pujols, and even Josh Hamilton, it's that high-risk, high-reward signings of players in their early 30s are often the former far more than the latter. Cano is on a Hall of Fame trajectory, but that doesn't mean he'll be producing at the same, elite level when he's 35, much less at 38. Now, a 7 year deal for $220 million? Hell, even the suddenly cost-conscious Yankees could abide that. But it seems that Cano and his new agent, rap mogul Jay-Z, aren't backing down from their expectations of a contract 3 years longer and at least $80 million higher. The Tigers or Nationals could swoop in and make this a moot point, but as it stands now, it appears to be a staredown between the most powerful financial entity in baseball and its most prolific current star.


It's a surprisingly good market for free agent catchers this offseason, with Brian McCann, Jarrod Saltalamacchia and A.J. Pierzynski all up for grabs amongst teams sorely needing backstop help. One notable catcher, though, will be returning to the only organization he's ever known. The Phillies managed to lure longtime game caller Carlos Ruiz back to Philadelphia with a 3-year, $26 million contract. The move is a smart one, even though the Phils really do need to get younger; sure, Ruiz is 35, but he's intimately familiar with Cliff Lee, Cole Hamels and the rest of the pitching staff, which is a quality in a backstop that's invaluable to the point of being unquantifiable, even with all the sabermetrics at our disposal today. Beyond that, Ruiz still adds a good bit of value at the plate when he's not behind it, as he's only a year removed from a 2012 campaign that ended with a .325/.394/.540 line with career highs in home runs (16) and RBI (68), and for a catcher, that's not bad. Ruiz apparently had a shorter, less lucrative offer on the table from the Rockies, but the Phillies were willing to go longer as far as guaranteed years, as well as adding an option for a 4th year in what would be Ruiz's age-38 season. If Carlos is still calling the shots behind the plate when he gets to that option, Philadelphia will be in worse shape than we already think they will be. Still, this is a good move for a team that needs to give their fanbase something to smile about.


The Royals made a pretty interesting move recently, signing former Angels starter Jason Vargas to a 4-year, $32 million deal. Vargas is by no means a power pitcher, as his "fastball" usually tops out around 87, but he still manages to miss bats with his curveball and, most importantly, his changeup. If nothing else, Vargas does have the ability to eat innings, having topped 200 in 2011 and 2012, his last two years with the Mariners. That will go a long way in preserving that great Kansas City bullpen, and will help Vargas fit right in with de facto ace James Shields. Beyond those two, the Royals will most likely rely on talented young hurlers Yordano Ventura and Kyle Zimmer (or they may even give Danny Duffy another look) to slot into their rotation, as well as forgotten man Jeremy Guthrie, and it's doubtful that they'll resign Ervin Santana after extending him a qualifying offer following an unexpectedly solid 2013. Vargas's home run numbers are cause for concern, though: even in pitcher's parks like Safeco Field and Angel Stadium, he has averaged 0.99 HR/9 or higher (and in a few cases, far higher) in 3 of the last 5 seasons. While Kauffman Stadium is somewhat detrimental to power hitters, it is by no means a place that a guy who gives up so many long balls wants to be. If Vargas can keep his impressive ground ball percentage (40.2 percent the last 2 seasons), he might just be what the Royals need to keep working towards ending their long postseason drought.


In closing, we here at TBF would like to extend our deepest condolences to the family of former MLBPA executive director Michael Weiner, who lost his battle with brain cancer late Thursday night at the age of 51. Weiner's accomplishments and impact on the game cannot possibly be understated, as he negotiated the latest collective bargaining agreement, which extends the longest period of labor peace between MLB and the players' union in history. Beloved by players and front offices alike, Weiner's time as the representative for the players has left an indelible mark on the game. He will be missed.

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