Wednesday, May 8, 2013

The Cost Of Doing Business, As It Relates To A Game.

Months ago, I wrote a post extolling the virtues of a salary cap, and the benefits that it would bring. Apparently, the front offices of most MLB teams do NOT religiously follow this blog (go figure), and we've seen several massive contract extensions between the last pitch of the 2012 World Series and the first pitch of Opening Night a little over a month ago. While it's easy for fans to initially get excited when one of their favorite players gets a guarantee to stay in that city for years to come, down the line these extensions are bound to become financial and psychological burdens on the franchises responsible for them. Let's take a look at some of the more notable contracts signed by superstars since November:


Buster Posey - Easily the most recognizable member of baseball's most underrated team, the former Rookie of the Year and reigning MVP has been a true wunderkind since his callup early in 2010. In both seasons that Posey has been healthy and behind the plate, he's won an award for his performance and, not coincidentally, the Giants have won a World Series in both years. His impressive game-calling abilities are matched by the pop in his bat (he won the batting title with a .336 average last year). Locking the 26 year old up with a 8-year, $159 million deal on top of the 1-year, $8 million contract they agreed upon in Buster's first arbitration go-through, the Giants have ensured that the baby-faced catcher will be a part of their team for the next decade. There was some hesitation in giving a mega deal like this to a backstop, as they are easily the most injury-prone players in today's game (see: Joe Mauer, whose 8-year, $184 million contract signed after the 2010 season is still the largest ever for a catcher in terms of money, and his value and durability have dropped significantly since then), but Posey has the build and the versatility to eventually move to third or first base as the years go by. This has the potential to be the rare, giant contract that actually pays dividends throughout its entirety.
OVERALL TERMS OF THE DEAL: 9 years, $167 million; $22 million club option for 2022.


Justin Verlander - This came as a shock to most fans, as Verlander made it clear earlier in the offseason that his impending free agency (after the 2014 season) was something he was strongly looking forward to, and with good reason: had he hit the free market, there's a great chance Verlander could have become the sport's first $200 million pitcher. However, the Tigers front office has shown a willingness to spend on their players, so they locked up Justin for the cool sum of $180 million while tacking on 5 extra years to the 2 Verlander already had left in Motown. What makes this deal notable is the option for 2020 that could push the overall value of the deal to $202 million. While Verlander is far and away one of the best pitchers on the planet (he throws 92 MPH in the first inning, 97 in the sixth, and 100 in the ninth), and his stats are otherworldly (an ERA of 2.52 since 2010, an average K/9 of 8.44, and the staggering ability to induce ground balls seemingly at will), a power pitcher of this variety rarely holds up well over the course of a decade. Especially one that signs a contract extension that begins when the pitcher is older than 30 (Justin will be 32 on Opening Day 2015). Will Verlander still be able to bring the insane heat when he's 37? It's hard to say. But this deal could come back to haunt Detroit, especially if it brings a few more World Series implosions.
OVERALL TERMS OF THE DEAL: 7 years, $180 million; $22 million vesting option for 2020.


Elvis Andrus - One of two young, dynamic shortstops in the Texas Rangers organization has just, seemingly, blocked the way to the majors for the other. Andrus was mentioned frequently in trade rumors this offseason, with Jurickson Profar waiting in the wings and their double play partner, Ian Kinsler, quietly refusing a move to first so Profar could start the season with the big club. However, instead of moving Elvis, the Rangers inked him to a 8-year, $120 million extension that will theoretically push Kinsler to first and Profar to second, or Kinsler nowhere and Profar out of town (smart money's on the former). While he's devoid of the power now symbolic of shortstops, Andrus's defensive capabilities and blinding speed on the basepaths make him an extremely valuable commodity in a Rangers lineup that sorely needs some versatility. Andrus is still just 24, and can apparently opt out of the contract following the 2018 season when his value might be even higher than it is right now. If he stays, though, he could be an integral part of an eventual world champion Rangers team. The question is if his speed will hold up throughout the entirety of the deal, as that is his most redeeming quality as a ballplayer. If Kinsler finally accepts a move to first, with Profar at second, Adrian Beltre at third and Andrus entrenched at shortstop, Texas will again be a force to be reckoned with.
OVERALL TERMS OF THE DEAL: 10 years, $132 million; opt-out clause after 2018 season.


Felix Hernandez - There's not a whole lot to like about the Mariners lately. They've done well in the draft, but most of their stud prospects (Taijuan Walker, Danny Hultzen, James Paxton and Mike Zunino) seem a little ways off from reaching the big leagues, and the current roster, an odd mix of underachieving youngsters (including Dustin Ackley, Justin Smoak, and Jesus Montero) and lackluster veterans (such as Kendrys Morales, Michael Morse and Raul Ibanez), leaves so much to be desired when it comes to creating runs. Thankfully, they've got a pitcher who specializes in shutting down opponents' offenses in Felix Hernandez, and thanks to this extension, the whispers of trade rumors should finally be (mostly) extinguished. The 2010 Cy Young winner signed what was then the largest contract for a pitcher in history (yet again, damn you, Verlander), completely justifiable by his age (a 26 year old signing a 7-year extension is a FAR better idea than signing a 32 year old to a contract of the same length) and his peripherals (his K/9 has been above 8 every season since 2008, and he hasn't posted an ERA over 3.50 since 2007). All this, and he could still feasibly find a lucrative multi-year deal when he eventually does reach free agency. If the M's offense can start clicking behind King Felix, they might just have a contender in Seattle again.
OVERALL TERMS OF THE DEAL: 7 years, $175 million; 8th year at $1 million could trigger if Hernandez's elbow gets injured during the course of the contract.


Adam Wainwright - It's not often that a pitcher undergoes Tommy John surgery in Spring Training, cheers his team on as they win a World Series in improbable fashion, then pitches so spectacularly that they receive a very generous extension, but Adam Wainwright has never been considered a bad pitcher to gamble on. This became evident earlier this year when, after posting a 14-13 record and a 3.94 ERA in a hair shy of 200 innings in 2012, the Cardinals awarded Wainwright with a contract that kept him from reaching free agency after this season. It may be a little garish to give an almost 32 year old hurler with a notable injury history such a deal, but Wainwright's track record when healthy certainly explains why the Cards' front office wanted to keep him in St. Louis: his career BABIP has only surpassed .300 twice since becoming a starter in 2007, his FIP was actually lower than his ERA last year (3.10, no easy feat), and he became an invaluable veteran presence following the disheartening news regarding teammate Chris Carpenter, whose career is in serious jeopardy after another shoulder surgery that will most likely keep him out all season and possibly beyond. With loads of tantalizing young pitching bubbling over from the minors, a solid Wainwright at the helm of the rotation for the next half-decade keeps the Cardinals squarely in contention.
OVERALL TERMS OF THE DEAL: 5 years, $97.5 million; full no-trade clause.


David Wright - David Wright has always had to cede the spotlight, in many ways. He's not the face of New York baseball, Derek Jeter was and is. He's never been the best third baseman in the NL East, Chipper Jones was and is. He hasn't even been the most popular player on his own team lately, R.A. Dickey was last year and John Buck is through this young season. But make no mistake, David Wright is a solid defender, an offensive force to be reckoned with, and vital to any future success the Mets hope to have. Therefore, they signed him to an extension to keep him in Queens until 2020, making him the highest paid player in the team's history. Never mind his exuberance and his ability to pump his teammates up, Wright is only 31, the captain of the Mets, and his career triple slash line (.301/.382/.507) could potentially put him into some esteemed company if he can raise those to a certain level; he would join Jones as the only third basemen in history with an overall .300/.400/.500 line. He already holds multiple Mets records, including most career hits (1,457), RBI (841), doubles (327) and total bases (2,455), and with this extension keeping him in town for another 7 seasons after this one, it's hard to imagine he won't hold every offensive record for the team when he hangs 'em up. Will he have a World Series ring to go with his numbers? Well, that's not really up to just him.
OVERALL TERMS OF THE DEAL: 8 years, $138 million; largest contract in franchise history.


Evan Longoria - Another third baseman signed an extension worth $100 million this offseason, but this one might not necessarily be as kind or fruitful. That's not to say that Evan Longoria hasn't been crucial to the Rays' recent success, or that he isn't now, or that he won't be. But there is a serious concern regarding whether he can stay healthy enough to help bring another World Series berth to Tampa. Longo has been a serious offensive producer in seasons when he's had 500 or more plate appearances, bopping no less than 22 homers in any of them and surpassing 100 RBI in 2 of them. He's even shown flashes of speed, stealing 15 bases in 20 tries in 2010. Defensively, he's been roughly as valuable, as he's never posted a fielding percentage lower than .937, although he does tend to make a few too many errors, making double digit errors every year since 2008 except last year, when he had 8 in only 74 games. Which leads us to the injuries. Evan has only played close to a full season twice, when he appeared in 157 games in 2009 and 151 in 2010, and missed over half of last season due to a torn hamstring in April. It seems odd to give a deal of this caliber to a talented but unstable third baseman already contracted through 2016, but the Rays are known for their shrewdness, and it's hard to bet against Longoria to keep shining.
OVERALL TERMS OF THE DEAL: 6 years, $100 million; only player under contract until 2023.

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