Friday, October 12, 2012

Playing The Right Cards/A National Disaster.

Well. I suppose it's nice that we're through the first round of the playoffs. But I can't say that it gets any more interesting from here. In what was a stunning upset in the last Division Series game played this season, the St. Louis Cardinals returned to the National League Championship Series for the second year in a row after defeating the Washington Nationals, who were making their first postseason appearance as a team in the nation's capitals.

This is not a team you want to see celebrating in October.
Nobody wanted to see the Cardinals in the postseason this year. No one. Cardinals fans may say that they did. They're lying; they do that, they're Cardinals fans. They just barely made their way into the playoffs last year, and we all know how that went. But here's a refresher anyway: they were 10 games out in August, leapfrogged the Braves on the last day of the season to clinch the Wild Card, overcame the Phillies in the Division Series, bested the Brewers in the Championship Series, and outlasted the Rangers to win their 11th World Series in franchise history. Coming into this season, they lost Albert Pujols, Tony LaRussa and Dave Duncan, three men who made the improbable run of 2011 seem possible, while only picking up veteran outfielder Carlos Beltran in their absences. However, with a returning core of Yadier Molina, Matt Holliday, Lance Berkman (who unfortunately couldn't follow up his Comeback Player of the Year campaign in 2011 and missed nearly the entire season with persistent injuries), Allen Craig and reigning NLCS/World Series MVP David Freese, this was a Cardinals team that could have made last year's team look like a bunch of minor leaguers. They ranked in the top 10 in all offensive categories, and were tops in baseball in OBP (.338). Molina blossomed into a possible MVP candidate, shortly after signing an extension that set the bar for power hitting catchers, a commodity in today's game. What was truly spectacular about these never-say-die Cards, though, was their rotation. A healthy Adam Wainwright weathered the loss of Chris Carpenter nearly all season, in a complete reversal of roles from last year. Along with Kyle Lohse, Jaime Garcia and and Lance Lynn, all of whom led the team in a single defensive category, they kept the team afloat when the lineup happened to not be delivering, which they normally were. The bullpen was effective as well, with Brian Wilson impersonator Jason Motte notching 42 saves and 86 strikeouts. They have garnered a reputation as being a terrifying force to be reckoned with, and only the Giants stand in the way of a repeat World Series appearance.

If the Nats had won the series, this might have become an iconic image in the District of Columbia for ages.
First things first: Stephen Strasburg probably wouldn't have helped out as much as the Nationals would have needed. From the second GM Mike Rizzo announced this offseason that Strasburg would be shut down at a "magic number" of innings, the debate raged regarding whether or not the Nats were handling Strasburg's progess properly. The decision was most likely made because nobody would have guessed that the Nationals were going to make baseball relevant in the nation's capital, at least not this year. Bryce Harper wasn't on the Opening Day roster, Drew Storen and Michael Morse started the season on the DL, and Gio Gonzalez was pitching in the NL full-time for the first season of his relatively short career. Jayson Werth was in the second season of a 7-year contract many felt he didn't deserve, and Ian Desmond hadn't brought out his full potential. But baseball is a funny thing sometimes. In a year when the Nats almost needed to not contend, they did. They rode a wave of skill, power, and a little luck to the best record in baseball. Harper turned in an impressive campaign for NL Rookie of the Year (and should thank his lucky stars he didn't have to compete with super-rookie Mike Trout in the AL), Storen, Morse and Werth all weathered their injuries well enough to make an impact in the last two months during the most crucial stretch, Desmond, Ryan Zimmermann, Jordan Zimmerman and Tyler Clippard all put up respectable numbers, and Gonzalez turned into a Cy Young candidate for the ages. When it became obvious that postseason baseball was going to be played for the first time in Washington since the Senators made the Fall Classic in 1933, there was wide speculation that the Nats would go back on their decision to shut Strasburg down, or that they would use him in the postseason. Neither of these came to fruition, as Rizzo and manager Davey Johnson stuck to their guns and left Strasburg off the postseason roster just to put any remaining rumors to rest. Whether his presence or arm would have made a difference will never be seen now, as the Nats exit the first round of the playoffs. But just imagine what a fully charged Strasburg can add to this team in 2013. Scary.

The playoff picture now looks like this:

NL Championship Series: Cardinals at Giants.
AL Championship Series: Tigers at Yankees.

My updated postseason predictions, for all they're not worth:

NLCS: Cardinals over Giants.
ALCS: Yankees over Tigers.

WS: Yankees over Cardinals in 5 games.

Stay tuned for any crucial updates, and for our recap after each postseason series.

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