At only 25 years old, Darvish is considered one of the best pitchers in the world right now, except in Detroit. He came up to the big leagues with the Hokkaido Nippon Ham Fighters of Nippon Professional Baseball, the Japanese counterpart of MLB, on June 15th, 2005, 2 months shy of 19. He promptly began blowing everyone away with his amazing speed, his strikeout rate that seemed to skew outward exponentially, and his odd, side-arm delivery that confuses batters to no end, and reminds many fans of the 2-time Cy Young "Freak" Tim Lincecum. His record stands at 93-38, with an ungodly 1.99 ERA and 1,259 strikeouts to his already-famous name. He's a 2-time Pacific League MVP winner, 5-time NPB All-Star, won the strikeout title in 2007, 2010 and 2011, and took the ERA title in 2009 and 2010. So, to say the least, Darvish is the real deal.
Now that Darvish has asked the Ham Fighters to post him, American teams are allowed to send a sealed bid to Hokkaido's front office with an undisclosed amount of money. This is simply the posting fee, the rights to exclusively negotiate with Darvish. The team that wins the rights then can negotiate a contract with Darvish to play for MLB, at which point he becomes a regular player under the regulations of the American big leagues. If Darvish and the team that won the rights to negotiate with him cannot come to an agreement, the team receives its bid back and the team with the next highest offer gets a shot at signing Darvish. It's a complicated process, one that many say is flawed and highly expensive, but it's simply in the best interest of both the player and the potential organization, to see if they're a good fit for each other. However, with international players, there's always a chance that their skills might diminish by playing in a new league, and in a new country.
Darvish drives Japanese batters crazy, but will his immense talent translate in America?
Japanese players in the past 20 years, especially pitchers, have been viewed as a hot commodity in MLB. They are conditioned well, they work hard, and they can normally dominate opposing teams for a while, since they're new and untested by American players. What's more, they're already developed. There's no waiting for them in the minor leagues, owners and managers don't have to go through all the thumb-twiddling and toe-tapping like they do with fresh-faced youngsters plucked out of high school or college. But there's a big difference betwen MLB and NPB, as there's a big difference between America and Japan. Japanese baseball games can end in a tie if neither team is winning after 12 innings. There are fewer home runs hit and a much smaller focus on offense. The baseball itself is smaller and more tightly wound. That final difference is often the biggest reason Japanese pitchers have a difficult time transitioning to American baseball, as they and the teams that have signed them have found out the hard way over the years.
Hideki Irabu, who spent the first 8 years of his career with Chiba Lotte Marines, threw the fastest pitch ever thrown in NPB at the time at 98 MPH and won strikeout, ERA and win titles from 1994 to 1996. The San Diego Padres took notice and purchased his contract in 1997, which angered other MLB teams that wanted to negotiate with him, leading to the inception of the posting system we all know and love. Eventually, he signed a lucrative contract with the New York Yankees instead, and won World Series with them in 1998 and 1999. However, his skills quickly took a nosedive, and he was unable to retain his power. After spending a few more seasons in MLB and NPB, he retired after being unable to regain his former glory. He tragically killed himself this past July.
Daisuke Matsuzaka, who came to prominence with the Seibu Lions, won the Pacific League Rookie of the Year in 1999, was a 7-time All-Star, and pitched the Lions to a Japan Series title in 2004, pulled in the largest posting fee to date, slightly over $51 million, submitted by the Boston Red Sox. In addition, they signed him to a 6-year, $52 million contract in the hopes that he would shore up their rotation and help them continue their resurgence as one of the best teams in baseball. Since then, he's gone 49-30 with an ERA almost 2 points higher than his career ERA in Japan, 568 strikeouts over 5 years, and has only made 105 starts, including an embarrassing 7 in 2011, before it was announced that he would have season-ending surgery that he's currently recovering from. Even though he helped the Red Sox to a title in 2007, their second of the decade, he's been worth way under what he's being paid.
Perhaps the best example of overspending for a Japanese pitcher, Kei Igawa had a career year in 2003, winning the Central League MVP, the ERA title, the wins title, the Pitcher MVP, and the Eiji Sawamura award. Considered one of the best pitchers at the time, the Yankees won the rights to negotiate with him for $26 million and signed him to a 5-year, $20 million contract, considerably less than the Red Sox did with Matsuzaka. Unlike Dice-K, Igawa never put together anything that resembles a good season: of those 5 years, he pitched professionally only in 2007 and 2008, and the line is unimpressive - 16 games played, 13 starts (only 2 and 1 in 2008), just 71 innings pitched, a 2-4 record in the Bronx, and an unsettling (for a few reasons) ERA of 6.66. After spending the final 3 seasons of the contract toiling away in the minor leagues (at $4 million a year), Igawa is now a free agent and says he wishes to continue pitching in MLB. It seems unlikely any team will be willing to give him a chance.
Whoever Darvish pitches for hopes to be as happy as he'll be with his contract.
So who's to say that Darvish won't follow in their footsteps? True, he's younger than they were when they were posted. Yes, his stats are better. Admittedly, scouts and team officials who have watched him pitch say they believe his career in MLB will be as prolific as it's been in NPB. But it's clear that the transition between countries is a dangerous risk to take for teams. It stands to reason that Yu will command a very expensive contract, not to mention the largest posting bid to date. But who will pony up the cash? The two biggest spenders, the Yankees and Red Sox, are clearly a little gun-shy when it comes to Japanese hurlers. The Texas Rangers have been rumored to be big spenders, and could certainly use a lot of rotation help after losing ace CJ Wilson to Anaheim. The Seattle Mariners is a highly celebrated and greatly loved American franchise in Japan because of its proximity to the island, its being owned by a Japanese-based company (Nintendo), and for housing veteran phenom Ichiro Suzuki for the past 11 years. The Kansas City Royals may not have the money, but since they're still looking toward the future and trying to create the youngest lineup imaginable, they could be a dark horse candidate for Darvish.
The highest bid will be revealed on Wednesday, at which point the team that wins will hope to sign Darvish quickly and get him fitted for a cap and jersey before spring training arrives. There's a lot to look forward to...for Yu, and for me.
No comments:
Post a Comment