Saturday, March 14, 2015

For Better Or For Worse 4: The Reckoning - NL West

We'll wrap up this year's FBOFW the same way as the others, with the National League West Division.


Arizona Diamondbacks
Key Additions: Yasmany Tomas, Jeremy Hellickson, Rubby De La Rosa, Allen Webster
Key Losses: Wade Miley, Miguel Montero, Didi Gregorius
2014 Record: 64-98
Playoffs: No
Season Outlook: Grit and grind didn't do much in the desert. The Snakes have had a tough time since reaching the NLCS in 2011, as their record has gotten progressively worse (2 straight seasons at .500 until their losing record this past season), and the trade package they got for Justin Upton, their best position player since Luis Gonzalez, has yet to pay any real dividends. Things reached a low point last season when deposed manager Kirk Gibson ordered Randall Delgado to plunk then-reigning MVP Andrew McCutchen in the back as retaliation for a perceived slight against then runner-up Paul Goldschmidt, who was hit by an Ernesto Frieri (now of the Rays) pitch the night before. Even worse, when asked about it, both Gibson and former GM Kevin Towers defended their pigheaded position. With those two gone (and Chip Hale/Dave Stewart composing the new manager/GM tandem), things should be much more peaceful in Phoenix. Tomas brings the promise of an untested Cuban slugger, although if reports that he'll be the team's starting third baseman are true, they'll lose a lot in terms of infield defense. Hellickson, former Rookie of the Year in Tampa, recorded a career high 7.61 strikeouts per 9 innings last year. That was the only good thing I could say about a season in which he notched a 4.52 ERA (4.15 FIP) in 63.2 innings. De La Rosa and Webster are each on their third franchise, after both were traded from LA to Boston before coming to Arizona in the Miley trade. Their roles are still uncertain, but guys with a lot of promise typically don't find themselves on team number 3 before making a real impact in the bigs. It's hard to root for this team for many reasons, and 2015 might not see any real improvement for the D'bags D'backs.
Biggest Need: An attitude adjustment, something that should come organically after removing Gibson and Towers from the equation. I mean, how often do you hear of a manager ordering a pitcher to plunk a batter, and then see the decision defended by the GM?


Colorado Rockies
Key Additions: Daniel Descalso and Nick Hundley? I'm not sure you can call them KEY additions...
Key Losses: Michael Cuddyer, Brett Anderson
2014 Record: 66-96
Playoffs: No
Season Outlook: The only certainties in life are death, taxes, and Troy Tulowitzki's inability to stay healthy for 162 games. Unfortunately, that leads to another certainty: no October baseball in Denver. Sure, Justin Morneau won the batting title in his first season with the team. Yeah, Nolan Arenado's defensive prowess at third evokes comparisons to prime Brooks Robinson. OK, Charlie Blackmon and Corey Dickerson combined for almost 5 fWAR last season in spite of both of them having made up names. But you don't get to almost 100 losses unless things go completely haywire, and it's not hard to pinpoint the culprit. Carlos Gonzalez is as complicit, as he spent another season largely off the field, appearing in only 70 games to Tulo's 91. Still, even with their superstars usually riding the pine, the Rox tend to rank 5th or higher in most offensive counting stats from year to year, something that is surely a result of playing in the best hitter's park in baseball. Conversely, the pitching is...well, you know. I'm confident that Jorge De La Rosa and Jhoulys Chacin would be perfectly acceptable starters if they didn't pitch primarily in the launching pad of Coors Field. Seeing as the team didn't bring in any pitching reinforcements, it's safe to say that the worst rotation in baseball won't be any better next season. Descalso and Hundley are both depth pieces on any other team, but with a roster as injury-prone as this one, they may get more playing time around the diamond and behind the plate than either might anticipate. It's been a while since we've seen Roctober, and when you combine the sad state of the team with the atrocious farm system (and the fumbling of high draft picks), it figures to be a few more seasons until we do. Hey, Colorado, at least you've got legal pot there.
Biggest Need: The same thing they need every year, Pinky...full seasons from Tulo and CarGo. Having one of them on the DL is bad enough, but they seem to love keeping each other company in the doctor's office.


Los Angeles Dodgers
Key Additions: Brandon McCarthy, Brett Anderson, Howie Kendrick, Jimmy Rollins, Yasmani Grandal
Key Losses: Hanley Ramirez, Matt Kemp, Dee Gordon, Dan Haren, Brian Wilson, Drew Butera, Tim Federowicz
2014 Record: 94-68
Playoffs: Lost NLDS to Cardinals, 3 games to 1
Season Outlook: For the first offseason since taking over, Magic Johnson and the LA brass have focused more on revamping the front office (adding Andrew Friedman and Farhad Zaidi as president of baseball ops and GM, respectively) to include more people with an affection for advanced analytics. That doesn't mean they've stood idly by on the free agent and trade markets, however. In fact, they're as prolific as ever in those regards, just with fewer dollars being thrown around. They convinced McCarthy and Anderson to come back west, enticed Kendrick and Grandal away from other southern California teams, and even brought Rollins over from Philadelphia. While the team may miss the spotty power of Ramirez and Kemp, the speed of Gordon, the shaky pitching of Haren and (especially) Wilson, and the aforementioned second-string catchers, there are still plenty of reasons to think the reigning division champs could still be called that this time next year. Clayton Kershaw is still the best pitcher in the solar system, the rest of the rotation (Zack Greinke, Hyun-Jin Ryu and McCarthy/Anderson) should continue to dominate, Joc Pederson now has a clear path to the majors, Adrian Gonzalez still provides plenty of firepower, and few closers in the game are more steady than Kenley Jansen. Most importantly, perhaps, Vin Scully will be calling home games for at least one more season. Even when they lose, this Dodgers team seems to keep winning.
Biggest Need: What do you get the team that has everything? They are unquestionably the most powerful team in baseball, in terms of financial and human capital. They're the Steinbrenner-led Yankees with a sabermetrically-inclined geek squad at the helm. Whether or not that translates into postseason success is wholly dependent on how the boys fare on the diamond.


San Diego Padres
Key Additions: James Shields, Matt Kemp, Wil Myers, Justin Upton, Derek Norris, Will Middlebrooks, Brandon Morrow, Tim Federowicz, Brandon Maurer
Key Losses: Seth Smith
2014 Record: 77-85
Playoffs: No
Season Outlook: Some teams rebuild. Some reload. And then there's the Padres. When newly-minted GM A.J. Preller took over, he immediately made it clear that he had a single objective: give San Diego a reason to get excited about baseball again. Mission accomplished. Preller waited the market out to nab Shields at a discount price, swung multiple trades to give the Padres light-tower, right-handed power in the form of a Kemp/Myers/Upton outfield (while sacrificing everything on defense, as all three run like they're sinking in quicksand), a solid catcher in Norris, a bounceback candidate in Middlebrooks, and brought some pitching reinforcements on board in Morrow and Maurer. This revamped lineup will undoubtedly be more productive than last year's team, with all the new faces giving Jedd Gyorko a break from being the only reliable batter. Josh Johnson, who didn't throw a single pitch for the Friars on a one-year pact last season, resigned with the team in the hopes that he'll actually take the mound in an MLB game next season. Even though their offense was horrendously and historically bad, the pitching (both starting and relief) was pretty strong. Tyson Ross, Andrew Cashner (both of whom had an ERA below 3) and Ian Kennedy (207 strikeouts, the highest total of the trio) could all see significant jumps in production, and less pressure to be "the guy", with the addition of Shields. In turn, Shields gives yet another small market team looking to end their unending cycle of postseason misery the chance to do so. This time, though, he's got some serious offensive muscle behind him. Now, with a stacked lineup and more certainty on the bump, it's not crazy to hope on the Padres anymore. Well, it's less crazy.
Biggest Need: A shortstop. Alexi Amarista has never been anybody's first choice, and Everth Cabrera was cut after a myriad of injuries and legal troubles. Who knows, maybe Preller is just crazy and daring enough to ply Tulowitzki from the division rival Rockies (this is a joke, Tulo will stay in Colorado until Dinger goes on a rampage and eats the entire team).


San Francisco Giants
Key Additions: Norichika Aoki, Casey McGehee
Key Losses: Pablo Sandoval, Michael Morse
2014 Record: 88-74
Playoffs: Won World Series against Royals, 4 games to 3
Season Outlook: There's gotta be something in the water out in SF. After clinching a Wild Card spot, the Giants toppled the Royals in one of the most exciting and invigorating World Series in recent history. As they had done after their previous two Series wins, they sought to retain their major free agents. They managed to lure Sergio Romo, Jake Peavy and Ryan Vogelsong back into the fold, but Sandoval bolted for Boston. Morse signed with the Marlins, but not before they had traded McGehee to San Francisco to fill the panda-shaped hole at third base. They also brought in recent October nemesis Aoki, who will man left field full-time for the first season in his career. More than anything, though, the front office has to hope some of the team's players simply bounce back. Matt Cain pitched to a career-worst 4.18 ERA in a career-low 90.1 innings. Angel Pagan only played in 96 games and stole 16 bases, his second lowest total in the last 5 seasons. Tim Lincecum's freakish mechanics are old news. And the bullpen is on its third closer since 2010 in Santiago Casilla, although it's nice that we're spared the unnecessarily wild facial hair with this one. Even with so much hinging on several "what-ifs", there's a lot to like about the champs: Buster Posey continues to be one of the top backstops in the game, Joe Panik was a revelation at second just when the team needed it most, they've still got their bug-eyed magic man in Hunter Pence, and were it not for that pesky Kershaw guy, Madison Bumgarner might hold the title of best pitcher in baseball. The Giants will have stronger competition than just the Dodgers next year, but if they can stave off the advancing Padres, they might find a way to harness that even-year magic in an odd-numbered year.
Biggest Need: While we're at it, they could use a national movement to omit odd-numbered years from the Gregorian calendar. That way, this dynasty can win every year, since every year will be an even-numbered year. Baseball is weird, man.

Projected 2015 Standings
Los Angeles Dodgers
San Diego Padres
San Francisco Giants
Arizona Diamondbacks
Colorado Rockies

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