Friday, March 6, 2015

For Better Or For Worse 4: The Reckoning - AL Central

As always, we keep plugging along in our FBOFW series with the American League Central Division.


Chicago White Sox
Key Additions: Jeff Samardzija, David Robertson, Adam LaRoche, Melky Cabrera, Zach Duke, Emilio Bonifacio, Gordon Beckham
Key Losses: Paul Konerko, Marcus Semien
2014 Record: 73-89
Playoffs: No
Season Outlook: The ChiSox will be better next year not only for their massive shopping spree (bringing in Samardzija to relieve Sale of the burden of being the only competent pitcher in the South Side, Robertson and Duke to strengthen a faltering bullpen, and LaRoche and Cabrera to add some pop to a lineup with phenom Jose Abreu and little else), but bidding farewell to both Konerko and the free-swinging financial drain that was Adam Dunn should add by subtraction. Jose Quintana has shown impressive flashes of brilliance over the last two seasons, and having Shark behind Sale should allow him to flourish even further without too much pressure. In spite of Sale, White Sox pitchers ranked in the bottom five of most pitching stats outside of quality starts (in which they ranked 13th), so this rotation really can't be any worse than it was. Younger players like Avisail Garcia and Conor Gillaspie have demonstrated they can be solid major league regulars, although the team has to be hopeful that Garcia can improve upon his -10 DRS mark in just 46 games in right last season and that Gillaspie continues his ascent into the ranks of offensively-acceptable third basemen. Moreover, prospects like Carlos Rodon and Tim Anderson are making it hard to keep them in the minors, and it's doubtful that they won't reach the majors if the team is indeed contending later on this year. If the offseason acquisitions pan out, and Abreu has another year like his rookie campaign, Chicago may have a contender (or two) on their hands.
Biggest Need: This part originally said something about them getting a fair amount of usage out of a backup second baseman, but the team recently resigned Beckham after he was non-tendered by the team (Angels) they traded him to this past summer. Between him and Bonifacio, the keystone should be properly cared for until Carlos Sanchez is ready to take over.


Cleveland Indians
Key Additions: Brandon Moss, Gavin Floyd
Key Losses: Jason Giambi
2014 Record: 85-77
Playoffs: No
Season Outlook: Seriously, in 2014-15, Jason Giambi was not only still playing (until his recent retirement announcement), he was the biggest free agent the Indians had. You can't make this stuff up. Anyway, last season was fairly prolific for Cleveland, as they notched another winning record in their ongoing quest to recapture the glory days of the 1990s. The signings of Nick Swisher and Michael Bourn a couple of years ago have yet to garner them more than a Wild Card spot two years back (that they pissed away by losing to the Rays), and with Jason Kipnis taking several steps backwards after a stellar 2013, things as they stand are looking dicey for the Indians. Swisher and Bourn have both gotten steadily worse since signing, as Nick hit fewer than 21 homers (8, to be exact) for the first time in a decade and Michael has stolen fewer than 25 bases in both of the last two years, a far cry from the 51 swiped bags he averaged between 2008-12. Although the addition of Moss can cover Swisher to an extent (and Brandon had his own power outage during the A's second-half stumble), Bourn's decline is on full display. There are, however, a few bright spots: Michael Brantley turned into a MVP candidate seemingly out of nowhere, and Corey Kluber came from the same place to win this year's AL Cy Young award. With the Central weaker than it's been in previous years (read: the Tigers are weaker than they've been in previous years), the Indians could feasibly strike while the iron is hot. Then again, they've been trying to strike since Grady Sizemore was a perennial All-Star, so...
Biggest Need: Another great season from the rotation can't hurt. Kluber tore through the league, but Carlos Carrasco also quietly notched a 2.55 ERA in 134 1/3 innings thrown. Trevor Bauer and Danny Salazar continue to struggle, but both are young enough to expect their ERAs to normalize with their high strikeout rates (FIP had them both pegged a little lower). Floyd is a solid back-end guy, and if his rehab from shoulder surgery continues to go well, he might still have a little left in the tank.


Detroit Tigers
Key Additions: Yoenis Cespedes, Alfredo Simon, Tom Gorzelanny, Shane Greene
Key Losses: Max Scherzer, Torii Hunter, Rick Porcello
2014 Record: 90-72
Playoffs: Lost ALDS to Orioles, 3 games to 0
Season Outlook: After 4 straight years of winning the division, 2015 could be the first season in some time that the Motown crew has some serious competition. They resigned resurgent DH Victor Martinez to a 4 year/$68 million deal they'll surely come to regret once V-Mart starts to show his age, but after a second-place MVP finish and leading the league in OBP (.409) and leading both leagues in OPS (.974), this was a deal they had to make. Never mind that Martinez just reinjured the same left meniscus that cost him the entire 2013 season, the Detroit brass needed to bring him back into the fold. Miguel Cabrera came back to Earth somewhat, but even his pedestrian numbers are well above replacement value and he should remain at first base, where his extreme defensive liabilities are much easier to hide. Gorzelanny is a good signing for a bullpen that is seemingly forever in flux, and the front office has to hope that the rotation (after losing Max Scherzer to the Nationals and Justin Verlander to the baseball gods) remains productive in David Price's final year before free agency. Simon and Greene should go a long way towards helping in that regard, and Anibal Sanchez is a fairly safe bet to pitch well. Cespedes will add more pop to this potent lineup, even if his defense lacks a little to be desired, making him a more than palatable replacement for the ageless Hunter. Ian Kinsler's spectacular defense made up for his sagging offense, and Jose Iglesias should be ready to go at shortstop after missing the entirety of last year, giving the team one of baseball's more enviable double play combinations. This Tigers team really isn't as threatening as its been in years past, but that doesn't mean Detroit will be a pushover in 2015.
Biggest Need: A bounce back from Verlander. After he signed that ludicrous extension, he's fallen off the map. His velocity is way down, he can't seem to throw strikes anymore, and it's possible he's smoking the same stuff that destroyed Tim Lincecum. Does Kate Upton know how to throw a curve, and how quickly can she get into midseason form?


Kansas City Royals
Key Additions: Kendrys Morales, Alex Rios, Kris Medlen, Edinson Volquez
Key Losses: James Shields, Billy Butler, Norichika Aoki
2014 Record: 89-73
Playoffs: Lost World Series to Giants, 4 games to 3
Season Outlook: Make no mistake: pushing the dynastic Giants to the final out of Game 7 of last year's World Series is damn impressive. That being said, the Royals should not be viewed as strong contenders in 2015. Kinda funny, considering THIS is the year everybody expected the team to win the pennant, not 2014. They've had one of their busiest offseasons in recent memory, unsurprisingly, but a quick glance will tell you that they haven't necessarily improved: Morales and Rios both fell off a cliff offensively (admittedly, Morales played in two of the worst hitter's parks in the game), and only Rios provides borderline value in the field. Medlen is recovering from his second Tommy John surgery (guys who have it twice are far less likely to come back at full strength), and any success Volquez had last year was surely the result of the magical Pirates pitching coaches. While both signings are low-risk/high-reward, neither portends particularly well. Danny Duffy finally came to life last year, but how effective he'll be going forward remains a valid skepticism. Moreover, the team lost their ace (Shields), their long-suffering DH (Butler), and an outfielder (Aoki) who fields magnificently, if not efficiently. Unless Eric Hosmer and Mike Moustakas finally tap into that 30-homer potential we keep hearing about, it'll be difficult for the Royals to rank last in the majors in most offensive categories again and still make it to October. Then again, you could have easily said the same thing this time last year, and you would have looked foolish. This is everyday life for the common Royals fan.
Biggest Need: Competent, major league-caliber hitters. The rotation is still strong, with Yordano Ventura, Jeremy Guthrie and Jason Vargas to compliment Duffy, the relief triumvirate of Herrera/Davis/Holland seems like a safe bet to replicate their dominant season (although some regression should be expected), and Brandon Finnegan can be used in a starting capacity or that of a long reliever. They've just got to score more runs, bottom line.


Minnesota Twins
Key Additions: Ervin Santana, Torii Hunter
Key Losses: None
2014 Record: 70-92
Playoffs: No
Season Outlook: If you've been paying attention at all the last 4 years, I don't need to tell you how bad the Twins have been. Joe Mauer, presumably after one too many Head and Shoulders commercials, seems to have disappeared after moving to first. His catching replacement, Kurt Suzuki, had a career year, but that doesn't mean it was anywhere close to prime Mauer. Bringing Hunter back to the organization he spent most of his solid career with is a nice feel-good signing, but the 38 year old can't have enough left in the tank to bring his once and future employers back to prominence so rapidly. Despite a 20-20 season from Brian Dozier, and the team as a whole ranking no lower than 11th in nearly all counting stats, the offense wasn't enough to keep the terrible pitching afloat. While signing Phil Hughes last offseason paid dividends (he posted the highest K/BB ratio of any qualified starter in history), the same cannot be said for Ricky Nolasco. Kyle Gibson struggled in his first full year, but his FIP implies some bad luck. Adding Santana may be a smarter move than it looks like on the surface, as he's had recent success in the division. Glen Perkins had a solid season, but the rest of the bullpen was uninspiring and ineffective. While people are excited for the eventual debuts of prospects Byron Buxton and Miguel Sano, fellow minor leaguers Alex Meyer and Kohl Stewart might need to join the big league club, and excel, just as quickly. Whew, that pitching is seriously bad.
Biggest Need: A stronger bullpen would help. The aforementioned youngsters could always join the club halfway through the year and pitch in relief to help them transition to starting. Then again, nobody's mistakenly believing that this team will contend in 2015, so they could wait on adding bullpen pieces until the rest of the squad notches a winning season.

Projected 2015 Standings
Chicago White Sox
Detroit Tigers
Kansas City Royals
Cleveland Indians
Minnesota Twins

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