Chicago Cubs
Key Additions: Jon Lester, Chris Denorfia, Dexter Fowler, Jason Hammel, David Ross, Miguel Montero, Tommy La Stella, Jason Motte
Key Losses: Luis Valbuena, Dan Straily
2014 Record: 73-89
Playoffs: No
Season Outlook: A lot of parallels can be drawn between the recent histories of the Cubs and Astros. Both are long suffering teams that haven't made the playoffs since Mike Trout was in high school, but both are currently loaded with top prospects, and both major league clubs are starting to climb back to prominence. The Cubbies punctuated their ascent by snatching Lester up this offseason, and he immediately makes the below-average rotation so much stronger. For good measure, they brought Hammel back into the fold, and the two of them should be enough to finally displace Edwin Jackson from the rotation after the Jake Arrieta Reclamation Project finally started to pay off. If nothing else, the team could always find a spot for CJ Edwards, whose progress has been the inverse of Jackson's decline. The bullpen is also nothing spectacular, although the signing of Motte will assuage the loss of the mustachioed Carlos Villanueva. Motte and Pedro Strop will be the first men on the bump if incumbent closer Hector Rondon falters. Fowler will slot in as the starting center fielder, La Stella the starting third baseman, and Montero the starting catcher, while Denorfia and Ross will provide enviable depth behind the plate and in the yard. Anthony Rizzo finally broke out last year, with 32 homers and his first All-Star appointment. Starlin Castro managed to rebound from a mediocre 2013 (in 27 fewer games, no less), hitting .292 with a .777 OPS as opposed to the .245/.631 figures he posted the year before. Javier Baez and Jorge Soler both made their debuts near the end of last season, and both of them started to show the fandom at large just why Chicago fans are so pumped for the future to get here. While Baez's alarmingly high strikeout rate is already the stuff of legend, both he and Soler provided a dash of power to a team desperate for it. And, of course, the bright-eyed Kris Bryant awaits in the wings, ready to unleash some right-handed fury on unsuspecting pitchers. This Cubs team might finally break through. A World Series win? Probably not, but at this point, beggars can't be choosers.
Biggest Need: As outstanding as the young sluggers are, a more reliable veteran bat wouldn't hurt. Had they signed someone like Sandoval or HanRam, while the drawbacks would be eminently obvious, they'd be considered much stronger contenders for 2015. If they make a move in that vein now, it'll be on the trade market.
Cincinnati Reds
Key Additions: Anthony DeSclafani, Marlon Byrd
Key Losses: Mat Latos, Alfredo Simon
2014 Record: 76-86
Playoffs: No
Season Outlook: The Reds can't seem to catch a break. They've got a formerly great lineup containing stalwarts Joey Votto, Jay Bruce and Brandon Phillips, all of whom experienced down seasons that no doubt contributed to the team ranking in the bottom five across baseball in most counting offensive categories (despite Todd Frazier's career year that saw him lead the team in those same stats). Zack Cozart was an unmitigated mess at shortstop last year, both offensively and defensively. In that regard, the trade for Byrd makes sense, as it gives them a boost in the lineup and a fairly dynamic outfield of him, Bruce and Billy Hamilton, but the defense will suffer as a result. The rotation is similarly spectacular (and actually played like it last season): Cy Young runner up Johnny Cueto led the staff, with Mat Latos, Homer Bailey and a resurgent Alfredo Simon contributing to the team's 103 quality starts, third in the game. Latos is now with the Marlins and Simon with the Tigers, but the rest of the rotation remains largely intact (and could even see the addition of DeSclafani, the principal return in the Latos deal, as early as this year should the team miraculously contend). Cueto is entering his walk year, however, and will almost definitely price himself out of Cincinnati's market with another season like 2014 (wherein he led the league in innings pitched, strikeouts and hits per 9). Tony Cingrani should be in line for a starting spot for the first time, but after his struggles last year that's anything but a given. They've still got their fireballing closer in Aroldis Chapman, unless this is finally the year they convert him into a starter as well. If they do, the pitching coaches must continue helping him develop his newly-found changeup to go with his insane fastball and disgusting slider. The division has only gotten more competitive, and it's hard to see how the Reds will be able to keep up in the foreseeable future.
Biggest Need: Votto's obsession with OBP is nice and all, but it comes at the detriment of his power. In a shortened campaign of 62 games, he only hit 6 homers and 23 RBI, well off pace from his usual numbers. While his ability to find a myriad of ways to get on base, he's got to show more of the 25+ home run power that he's demonstrated through most of his career if this offense is going to get off the ground.
Milwaukee Brewers
Key Additions: Adam Lind
Key Losses: Yovani Gallardo, Zach Duke, Tom Gorzelanny
2014 Record: 82-80
Playoffs: No
Season Outlook: There was a point in the season when people were seriously wondering whether a Royals-Brewers World Series was a viable possibility. Well, the KC squad held up their end of the bargain, but the Brew Crew faltered down the stretch. A very poor year from pariah Ryan Braun didn't help, as he posted career lows in everything while fighting both a damaged nerve in his thumb and a damaged reputation around the league. Jean Segura also took a huge step back after a strong 2013, and most of the offense lagged accordingly. There were some positive contributors: Carlos Gomez recorded his second straight 20-20 season (although this blogger always worries about guys who break out at 28 years old, somehow my doubts don't seem to be affecting Gomez's performance much???), and Jonathan Lucroy led baseball in doubles, played in his first All-Star Game, and even finished 4th in MVP voting. Francisco Rodriguez was also lights-out in the bullpen, leading baseball in games finished and saving 44 games. If he doesn't pitch as effectively in 2015, Jonathan Broxton will slide into the 9th. Gallardo is a significant loss, but Matt Garza has plenty of experience being the top starter on a crappy NL Central team, as does Kyle Lohse. The infield should also be better: Lind adds serious power to the lineup (in spite of hitting just 6 long balls last season, he's hit between 11 and 35 homers between 2009-13), Scooter Gennett does everything well without doing any one thing amazingly, and the ageless wonder Aramis Ramirez keeps chugging at third. In the outfield, Braun's cohorts in Gomez and Khris Davis are more than capable of keeping things afloat should Ryan regress further. If things break right, though, the Brewers could feasibly make another divisional push as they did last season.
Biggest Need: As with most teams, a strong season from several position players should help significantly. Braun, Segura and Gennett all have room to improve (or rediscover their former prowess), and fairly big things are expected for Lind should he prove to be healthy. The Brewers could also stand to get a little more out of their bullpen: K-Rod and Brox should remain solid, but former closer Jim Henderson will have to come down from that 7.15 ERA he posted last season.
Pittsburgh Pirates
Key Additions: A.J. Burnett, Jung-Ho Kang, Francisco Cervelli, Corey Hart
Key Losses: Russell Martin, Edinson Volquez
2014 Record: 88-74
Playoffs: Lost Wild Card game to Giants, 9-0
Season Outlook: Well, at least we aren't still talking about those 20 straight losing seasons. Since snapping that horrifying streak of incompetency, the Pirates have clinched a Wild Card spot in two consecutive seasons. Martin (now of the Blue Jays) was a huge part of that success, as his superior pitch framing added countless strikes for revitalized hurlers like Volquez (a recent addition to the Royals) and Francisco Liriano (whom the team resigned for 3 years and $39 million). Without the first two of those three, it'll be interesting to see how Andrew McCutchen and his crew of buccaneers weather the storm of regression. And believe me, there will be regression: while Burnett was solid in his first stint with the team, Cervelli (currently tabbed as the Opening Day catcher) has only played in more than 50 games once (in 2010!), Hart hasn't played in more than 100 games since 2012, and Kang has never played a single MLB game. With Jordy Mercer entrenched at short and Neil Walker at second, manager Clint Hurdle probably won't be gung-ho about giving Jung-Ho too many starts unless someone's injured. Also, displaced third baseman Pedro Alvarez will be the starting first baseman, relegating Hart to the bench/DH in AL parks. Still, going from Martin to Cervelli is like going from foie gras to French fries, and due to Martin's immaculate framing and calling no longer helping, it wouldn't be that surprising to see every Pirates pitcher's ERA go up significantly. Still, it's hard not to like a team with a charismatic center fielder and a more than competent surrounding cast, especially one that finally ended a vicious cycle of futility. With the division stronger than it's been the last two years, it's hard to see how this diminished roster hangs on long enough to clinch a third straight Wild Card.
Biggest Need: A breakout season from Gregory Polanco. While he only hit 7 homers and stole 14 bags last year, the potential has always been there for him to reach 20 in both facets. If he continues along the superstar path we've been told he's on, an outfield of him, Cutch and Starling Marte will be hard to beat.
St. Louis Cardinals
Key Additions: Jason Heyward, Jordan Walden
Key Losses: Justin Masterson, A.J. Pierzynski
2014 Record: 90-72
Playoffs: Lost NLCS to Giants, 4 games to 1
Season Outlook: A huge thorn in the side of baseball fans outside of the Midwest, the Cardinals are one of those teams that seems to improve no matter what they do. They lose their best hitter since Musial? Hello, Matt Adams. Their best pitcher gets injured? They have 16 other "best pitchers". They have one weak spot, shortstop, that needs to be addressed? Enter Jhonny Peralta. It's sickening. While two of their surprise stars from 2013, Matt Carpenter and Michael Wacha, each took a few steps backwards, that didn't deter the team's pennant run in any noticeable way. They ultimately fell to the Giants several days before the tragic death of young phenom Oscar Taveras, but even that hole was plugged by the acquisition of Heyward in a career year. If J-Hey can consistently display the flashes of brilliance he showed throughout his tenure in Atlanta, the Cards would do well to keep him from reaching free agency. Walden, who came to the team in the same trade, should be a huge boon to a bullpen that, when viewed closely, is less than stellar: aside from incumbent closer Trevor Rosenthal, Walden is the only projected reliever on the team's Opening Day roster who recorded an ERA under 4 last year. Adam Wainwright has been sidelined early this spring with an abdominal strain, and his status for the season opener is in doubt. Should he miss that, any one of Wacha, Lance Lynn and (gulp) John Lackey will likely take the mound. Kolten Wong can't do much worse than the .292 OBP he registered in his first full big league campaign, Matt Holliday remains one of the more prolific sluggers in an offense-starved era, and the best catcher today by consensus, Yadier Molina, should benefit from a healthy season (even though he still gained All-Star and Gold Glove honors last year). While this incarnation of a team that's played in the NLCS for 4 years straight doesn't look as intimidating as previous ones, there's no reason to believe there won't be October baseball in St. Louis once again.
Biggest Need: I'm not sure they have ANY needs, much less a biggest one. Even with the resurgent Pirates and all the flashy moves the Cubs made this winter, the Cardinals should still be the team to beat in the division.
Projected 2015 Standings
St. Louis Cardinals
Chicago Cubs
Pittsburgh Pirates
Milwaukee Brewers
Cincinnati Reds
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