Sunday, March 8, 2015

For Better Or For Worse 4: The Reckoning - AL West

In this FBOFW post, we'll take a look at the American League West Division.


Houston Astros
Key Additions: Evan Gattis, Colby Rasmus, Hank Conger, Luke Gregerson, Pat Neshek, Jed Lowrie, Luis Valbuena, Dan Straily
Key Losses: Dexter Fowler
2014 Record: 70-92
Playoffs: No
Season Outlook: Houston fans have been told to "trust the process" that GM/madman Jeff Luhnow has employed to bring the Astros out of their perpetual cellar-dwelling ways, and while nobody expects them to pull a Royals next season, 2015 should still be a big step forward for the team. They avoided a fourth straight 100-loss season and added some serious punch to an anemic lineup and an equally faulty bullpen. With that in mind, a .500 season doesn't seem very far outside the team's grasp, although they'll have to strike while the injury iron is hot for some of their divisional and geographical rivals. Rasmus will shore up an outfield with George Springer and Jake Marisnick, Gattis will provide them with massive power out of the DH spot (and can even spell incumbent Jason Castro behind the plate if necessary), Lowrie can play either position up the middle in case breakout star Jose Altuve misses any significant amount of time, Gregerson and Neshek will help reinforce the bridge between the rotation and Chad Qualls, Valbuena gives the team a more reliable third base option than Matt Dominguez, and Conger and Straily also provide solid depth at their respective positions. If Springer, Jonathan Singleton and all those coveted prospects like Carlos Correa and Mark Appel can take a few steps forward, the trust placed in the process will soon bear the hard-earned fruits of the Houston front office's labor.
Biggest Need: Continued success from Chris Carter. He hit 37 homers last year and slugged .491, but his .227 batting average, .308 OBP and 9.8 walk percentage leave a lot of room of improvement. He won't be the lone catalyst in this lineup with the addition of Gattis and Rasmus, but he'll need to take more free passes and create more value on the basepaths if he is to add to the Astros' charge.


Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
Key Additions: Andrew Heaney, Josh Rutledge, Roberto Baldoquin
Key Losses: Howie Kendrick, Gordon Beckham, Jason Grilli
2014 Record: 98-64
Playoffs: Lost ALDS to Royals, 3 games to 0
Season Outlook: Baseball's best player (do I really have to say who?) finally found himself on a team that rose to meet him, as the Trout-led Angels breezed to the game's best record. A strong first half from Albert Pujols gave the Halos an early jump start on the division title, and Garrett Richards was a rotational revelation before a knee injury sidelined him down the stretch. His absence was sorely felt during the first round of the playoffs, as the Angels were swept by the surging Royals. Josh Hamilton was a non-factor not only in October but the months preceding it, and his albatross of a contract makes it unlikely he'll be moved soon. Even worse, he experienced a relapse with cocaine and alcohol this season, and he'll be suspended for an as-yet-undetermined amount of time when the season begins. Knowing they needed more youth and power in the starting five, the team swung a trade with their crosstown NL counterparts for Heaney, the former Marlin, giving up Kendrick in the swap. Between him, Matt Shoemaker and a healthy Richards, former aces Jered Weaver and C.J. Wilson may bounce back with lower expectations. However, both Weaver and Wilson have seen sharp declines in their velocity and location, so regaining their command will be vital. The bullpen is fairly reliable, with Joe Smith and Huston Street locking down the later innings. Rutledge is a solid utility guy who's logged innings everywhere in the infield except first, but Baldoquin, a Cuban defector, is a complete unknown (and won't even start the season with the big league club). As long as Richards comes back at 100 percent, Heaney adjusts to the AL, and Hamilton and Pujols provide at least minimal value, the Halos could be looking at a heavenly postseason.
Biggest Need: A resolution to the myriad of questions in the rotation. Will Richards return to his newly found form? Can Shoemaker replicate his surprising season? Do Weaver or Wilson have anything left in the tank? Who's next on the depth chart if one of these guys gets injured? Is Kelvim Escobar still around?


Oakland Athletics
Key Additions: Billy Butler, Brett Lawrie, Ben Zobrist, Tyler Clippard, Jesse Hahn
Key Losses: Jon Lester, Jeff Samardzija, Josh Donaldson, Brandon Moss, John Jaso, Luke Gregerson, Jason Hammel, Jonny Gomes, Jed Lowrie, Adam Dunn
2014 Record: 88-74
Playoffs: Lost Wild Card game to Royals, 9-8
Season Outlook: Nobody's ever quite sure what goes through Billy Beane's head. This offseason makes this humble blogger wonder if Beane has any clue himself. Are the A's rebuilding as a trigger-happy reaction to a tough WC loss? Are they reloading? If they are, why are they reloading with BB pellets and scrolls of paper that say BANG! on them instead of, you know, actual bullets? Moreover, some of the players that the team has brought in don't necessarily make sense or fit comfortably into the Moneyball archetype. Butler's power won't play in the Coliseum nearly as well as Dunn's did (and it didn't), Lawrie is an oft-injured, defense-first liability replacing an all-around force in Donaldson, and Hahn is still a relative unknown after a strong season with the Padres. Zobrist and Clippard are, admittedly, great additions: Ben will assume a similar role of mega-ultra-super utility player as he played in Tampa (even if his on base numbers are nothing to write home about), and Tyler will add stability to a bullpen that desperately needs it in the wake of Sean Doolittle's shoulder injury. Still, this team will be reeling from the whirlwind of moves, especially the losses in the rotation, and the Oakland faithful will be wary of getting too attached to any new faces. They can at least take solace in the fact that they'll have an entirely new crop of faces to be cynical about in 2-3 years.
Biggest Need: A NEW STADIUM, FOR GOD'S SAKE. The walls are crumbling, sewage usually overflows from the sinks and showers, and the location is less than ideal. Maybe new commissioner Rob Manfred will do more than his predecessor to resolve the conflict between the A's and Giants for territorial rights in San Jose, but don't hold your breath (unless you're trying to not smell the sewage, then go right ahead).


Seattle Mariners
Key Additions: Nelson Cruz, J.A. Happ, Justin Ruggiano, Seth Smith
Key Losses: Michael Saunders, Corey Hart, Chris Denorfia, Justin Smoak, Kendrys Morales
2014 Record: 87-75
Playoffs: No
Season Outlook: After years of playing the role of whipping boy, the Mariners finally forced the world to pay attention to them once again, as they just missed the playoffs on the final day of the season. The first year of Robinson Cano's tenure in the Pacific Northwest was, therefore, a success, but they'll need to make some noise next year if they're to be taken seriously. The M's finally got their man in Cruz, after he led baseball with 40 homers while playing in Baltimore. In Nelly, they've added a strong power hitter, a rare commodity in today's offense-starved game, but Safeco Field is notorious for being a graveyard for prolific sluggers. In addition, Cano and Kyle Seager are the only other hitters that opposing pitchers need to worry about. Once they get past the heart of the lineup, it's just despair, agony, and Dustin Ackley. Felix Hernandez, still one of the best pitchers on the planet, and the rest of the rotation will benefit from the addition of Happ (and they only had to give up Saunders, who was reportedly unhappy with the organization anyway). The bullpen, led by closer/archer Fernando Rodney, was actually pretty solid, as they combined for the 7th highest relief corps WAR in MLB. Smith will add a bit of value at the plate, as he managed to knock 12 balls out of the park last year while playing in another cavernous field (Petco Park), although he'll likely platoon with Ruggiano, considering how Seth hits righties and Justin hits lefties, and neither provides much in the way of fielding. Optimism is running high in Seattle for the first time since Junior was there, but will it culminate in a playoff appearance in 2015? Hey, anything's possible in this game.
Biggest Need: One more bat wouldn't hurt, but it'll have to come on the trade market at this point. It's possible that the team could forego any more moves, though, and hope for a return to form from Jesus Montero. The DH/erstwhile catcher made more headlines for his ice cream-inspired feud with a scout last season than his performance on the diamond, but he's supposedly dropped some weight and is rededicated to becoming the slugger Seattle hoped he'd be when they traded Michael Pineda to the Yankees for him.


Texas Rangers
Key Additions: Yovani Gallardo, Ross Detwiler
Key Losses: Alex Rios, Alexi Ogando
2014 Record: 67-95
Playoffs: No
Season Outlook: Everything's bigger in Texas...including, it seems, the injury risk. Hopes were high for the former 2-time pennant winners, especially after signing Shin-Soo Choo to an outrageous deal and taking on another when they acquired Prince Fielder from the Tigers for Ian Kinsler. Then, suddenly, putting on a Rangers uniform became the equivalent of wrapping yourself tightly in a smallpox blanket. As per CBSsports.com's Matt Snyder, the team set a record for most active players on a 25-man roster. 40 (!!!) different pitchers were used, and 14 pitchers made a start with only one reaching 25 in Colby Lewis. Trading for Gallardo (30 starts or more every year since 2009) and Detwiler (who is comfortable starting or throwing long relief) makes a ton of sense, then. Slotting those two behind Yu Darvish and a healthy Derek Holland will help prevent a repeat of the revolving door on the mound. Even when healthy, the two big prizes of the Rangers' offseason were ineffective. Choo didn't play after August 23rd due to ankle surgery, and his OBP was a career-low .340. Fielder went down for the year in early May with a neck injury. Kinsler, if you didn't know, thrived in Detroit, provided superb defense, notched a career-high 92 RBI and helped the team win their fourth straight division title. Just saying. In his stead, Rougned Odor handled second base appropriately, and even slugged pretty well for a middle infielder. Elvis Andrus, however, was a non-factor for most of the year, having the worst offensive season of his career since 2010 and leading the league in failed stealing attempts. Jurickson Profar didn't appear in a single game as injuries also prevented him from taking the field, and he'll lose all of 2015 as well. Losing Rios in the outfield, though, doesn't hurt too much, and Adrian Beltre continues to add to his Hall of Fame credentials, so this team isn't without bright spots. They just got lost in the sea of maladies.
Biggest Need: Waking up from that nightmare 2014 season may be enough. Last year was a fluke in terms of days lost to injury, so the team is due for some positive regression there.

Projected 2015 Standings
Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
Seattle Mariners
Texas Rangers
Houston Astros
Oakland Athletics

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