Wednesday, December 18, 2013

Choose Your (Closer's) Own Adventure!

Let's say you're the general manager of an unnamed Major League Baseball team. Let's say that you have a closer who has perfect control, allows virtually no hits or walks anytime he's on the bump, and regularly throws faster than Prince Fielder knocks out several dinners at Golden Corral. Let's say that same closer is a few months shy of turning 26, is a former Rookie of the Year (as well as a top-10 Cy Young finisher the past 3 seasons), and can be controlled by any team until after the 2016 season. Let's say you have a giant, vacuous hole where your second baseman should be, a mirage at third base, and an outfield that just can't seem to be healthy all at the same time. What would you do?

If you choose to hold on to your closer and refuse to entertain the idea of trading him, skip to the paragraph labeled A.

If you choose to hold on to your closer for now, with the implication that you may be willing to discuss him later on, skip to the paragraph labeled B.

If you choose to trade your closer to fill your needs, skip to the paragraph labeled C.


A - So you hold on to Craig Kimbrel, dominant hurler of the Atlanta Braves, and retain the best closer in the post-Mariano Rivera era. Not a bad decision. Kimbrel has a career 15.1 K/9 in just 4 seasons and still throws fire at will. He's led the National League in saves all 3 seasons that he's been the full-time closer, and led all of MLB last year with 50. Why trade him when you have such a strong bullpen with him? Sure, you have plenty of palatable options (Jordan Walden, Eric O'Flaherty, Jonny Venters, etc.), and more starting pitching than you know what to do with (don't forget, Kris Medlen was a reliever before joining the starting 5), but you don't see how you could possibly trade Kimbrel back and get what he's worth. Still, as good as the Braves are WITH Kimbrel, they still have roster spots for Dan Uggla, Chris Johnson, and BJ Upton, and as we saw last year, that's not a playoff-ready team. It's like wasting the prime years of Mike Trout with the current incarnations of Albert Pujols and Josh Hamilton. Kimbrel languishes away and suffers through continuous first-round playoff exits until he reaches free agency, and all you have to show for one of the best closers of the past decade is a compensatory draft pick.

B - Great closers are hard to come by, and when you have a homegrown, price-controlled one like Kimbrel, you're better suited keeping him as long as you possibly can. But now it's the middle of July and the Nationals are finally as good as advertised, with the Mets and Marlins knocking on the door of relevancy. The Braves are doing fine but are rapidly falling out of contention, and it looks like postseason baseball isn't really happening in Atlanta this season. So you make Kimbrel available, hoping to get an established second baseman and a top position player prospect, as well as some lottery tickets or extra parts. The usual teams come calling with the usual offers, none of which sound good (Howie Kendrick? Dustin Ackley? WHO ARE YOU PEOPLE?!), until finally, by the grace of God H. Selig, a sucker appears, most likely the Royals (got you again, Dayton Moore!), with an offer that isn't fantastic, but is far better than what the Braves brass had been hearing. Kimbrel is shipped out of town, and while his presence is certainly missed, the Bravos might finally have a second baseman who can hit above the Mendoza line without sacrificing anything on defense. Uggla is demoted to backup bullpen catcher, Andrelton has a much more reliable double play partner, and a quick return to October baseball seems likely, if not this year.

C - Fortune favors the bold. Not only is this the move that smart baseball executives should make, but if Frank Wren really wants to advance past the first round of the playoffs before moving to Cobb County, this is a big step in the right direction. Kimbrel's value will never be higher than it is at this moment, while he's still untouchable, young and healthy. There are no indications that he could break down, but we see freak injuries in baseball so often, they can't really be called "freak" injuries anymore. A screaming line-drive comebacker from Andrew McCutchen or a rampaging Giancarlo Stanton and Craig is out of commission for an undetermined amount of time. So why wait until the middle of the season, when anything can or could happen? You decide to get as big of a return as possible, which means getting Kimbrel to another team before pitchers and catchers report in February. Of course, this is easier said than done. As mentioned above, the pickings might be slim on the trade market for what the Braves need. The Padres, however, might be a potential fit. They've got Jedd Gyorko, a natural third baseman displaced by extension candidate Chase Headley who smashed 23 long balls in his first taste of major league action last season while playing slightly below average in the field. He's still young at 25, though, and still has tremendous upside. If the Friars throw in outfielder Hunter Renfroe (to spell BJ/replace Justin when he inevitably walks) and current closer Huston Street, that's a deal you should grab onto and never let go of.

In all likelihood, Kimbrel will still be pitching in a Braves uniform in 2014. Don't get me wrong, that's absolutely fantastic and stands to only make the entire team better as a whole. But the cracks aren't just beginning to show; they're growing larger every day that the Uggla/Johnson/Upton tandem is still on the roster with no clear fixes or alternatives. Giving up the game's best closer for players that could help the Braves is a tough move to justify, but one that has to be made if they even hope to sniff a World Series before Freddie Freeman, Jason Heyward and the rest reach free agency.

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