A Tale Of (The First) Two Contenders.

If you had spoken to someone before the 2012 season started and asked them who they thought would win the NL Central, there's a good chance that more people would have said the Cardinals or even Brewers before they said the Reds. And if you wanted to know who would garner a postseason berth before the Yankees, Rangers or Giants, it's likely that many fans wouldn't have guessed the Nationals would accomplish such a feat. But here we are, nearing October, and the only two teams who have a guaranteed playoff spot are in Cincinnati and Washington, DC.

This is truly a tale of two teams: one heavily favored, one much less so. One team stacked with consistent bats and gloves, one with far more to prove. One that has tasted postseason success many times in franchise history, one who has starved since the 1930s.

So how did they get here?

First, the Reds. After winning the division over the Cardinals and Brewers in 2010, they exited the playoffs early after falling victim to the second no-hitter in October history thanks to the Phillies' Roy Halladay. In 2011, they finished in 3rd place behind, you guessed it, the Brewers and Cardinals, and had to watch their two division rivals square off in the NLCS, and even more upsetting, saw the Cards win their 11th World Series title. Still, expectations were high entering this season, with Joey Votto signing a long-term extension that guaranteed the ex-MVP would man the cold corner for the Reds for the next decade, and second baseman Brandon Phillips signing a 6-year deal shortly after that. Between the two of them, and other batters like Jay Bruce, Ryan Ludwick, and Chris Heisey, the offense was sure to keep the team afloat even if the rotation or bullpen faltered. The thing is, the rotation and bullpen thrived instead of faltering. Cy Young candidate Johnny Cueto has shut batters down at a fascinating rate, offseason pickup Mat Latos has adjusted well, and flamethrower Aroldis Chapman has blazed into the discussion of the most dominant closer this season. They capitalized on the early-season failings of the Brewers and Cardinals, held off the surging Pirates for the first half, and clinched their second playoff appearance (and NL Central division title) in the past 3 years.

There's plenty of reason for the Reds to celebrate, and there may be even more this October.

In stark contrast, the Nationals came into this season with only one expectation: that, no matter how they finished the year, Stephen Strasburg wouldn't pitch past his "magic number" of innings. There has been much discussion about the possible repercussions of this move (including several posts on this very blog), but the Nats stuck to their word and shut him down. This would have been fine in any of the past 80 years since a baseball team in Washington played in the postseason, but this is a Nationals team unlike its predecessors. Bryce Harper, the most highly-regarded rookie not named Mike Trout, made enough noise for the nation to pay attention to the capital, where the Nats somehow survived injuries to Jayson Werth, Michael Morse Wilson Ramos and kept the offense alive just enough for their extremely dominant rotation, composed of Strasburg (until recently being replaced by stand-in Ross Detweiler), Cy Young hopeful Gio Gonzalez, and breakout star Jordan Zimmermann, to shut down any hopes of the Braves, Phillies, Marlins or Mets winning the NL East division this year. Quick question: which team has the best run differential? Did you guess this team? 666 runs scored, 534 allowed, for a run differential (+132) that's better than that of the Yankees (+103), the Rangers (+119), and the Giants (+62). They are the only team in the National League that has a (positive) run differential that's 3 digits. While they still haven't achieved their division win, it's seemingly just a matter of time.

Everybody's getting into the fun in Washington, regardless of if Strasburg pitches or not.

So how equipped are these teams? Do they have the stuff to make a deep postseason run? Let's break it down:

The Reds have the best first baseman in the National League in Votto, the best closer in Chapman, and one of the top 3 starters in Cueto. They've experienced playoff baseball very recently, and have led their division for nearly the entire season. Their offseason pickups in Latos and Ludwick have been extremely beneficial, and Bruce is a dark horse MVP candidate. Phillips is defending his Gold Glove with aplomb, and is putting together some respectable offensive numbers after winning his first Silver Slugger. Cozart and Todd Frazier have added some serious depth to the offense, and Homer Bailey, Mike Leake, and midseason pickup Jonathan Broxton have done the same for the defense. They rank between 11th and 18th in all offensive stats, and between 3rd and 11th in all defensive stats. If they can clinch home field advantage, they will be the team to beat this October.

The Nationals, again, have a much harder road to postseason success than the Reds do. Losing Strasburg will only hurt the rotation, but Gonzalez, Zimmermann, Detweiler, Edwin Jackson and John Lannan are more than capable of picking up the slack left behind by the young phenom. Werth is the only batter in the lineup with any real playoff experience, so his presence and prior October service times will be invaluable to this young roster. A healthy Morse, a focused Harper, and third baseman Ryan Zimmerman looking to live up to his $100 million extension signed before the season will benefit the offense that ranks between 7th and 11th. As for the pitching? 3rd in quality starts, 2nd in opponents' batting average, 2nd in WHIP, and 1st in ERA. You can't argue with that. Still, it doesn't seem like this team is structured to play very far into the playoffs, at least this year. The rational behind shutting down Strasburg was the hopes that the Nats would be in the postseason mix for years to come, so a Washington roster with him on it would be much more favored to be true contenders. This year, though, it looks bleak.

If they meet in October?

Catcher: CIN Devin Mesoraco, WAS Kurt Suzuki     Advantage: CIN
First baseman: CIN Joey Votto, WAS Adam LaRoche     Advantage: CIN
Second baseman: CIN Brandon Phillips, WAS Danny Espinosa     Advantage: CIN
Shortstop: CIN Zack Cozart, WAS Ian Desmond     Advantage: WAS
Third baseman: CIN Scott Rolen, WAS Ryan Zimmerman     Advantage: WAS
Left field: CIN Ryan Ludwick, WAS Roger Bernadina     Advantage: CIN
Center field: CIN Drew Stubbs, WAS Bryce Harper     Advantage: WAS
Right field: CIN Jay Bruce, WAS Jayson Werth     Advantage: CIN
Rotation: CIN Cueto, Arroyo, Latos, Bailey, Leake; WAS Gonzalez, Zimmermann, Jackson, Detweiler, Lannan     Advantage: WAS
Closer: CIN Aroldis Chapman, WAS Tyler Clippard     Advantage: CIN

Overall Advantage: CIN

Will either team win it all this October? Hell, anything can happen. Between the two, the smart money's on Cincinnati, but we know now that you can't count the Nats out. As a famous philosopher once said, it ain't over 'til it's over.