Cage Match: Cabrera vs. Trout.

All right, there has been so much speculation on the AL MVP award winner that I've finally decided to put my two cents in (sports fans everywhere wait with bated breath). It seems all but settled that this year, the award is between two men and two men only: Tigers third baseman Miguel Cabrera, and Angels center fielder Mike Trout. Narrowing it down to the two of them was difficult enough for baseball fans. It only gets harder from here.

Look out, Carl Yastrzemski...after four and a half decades, you may have some new company.

Cabrera, 29, has been something of a quiet superstar for almost a decade now. He debuted with the Marlins back in 2003, the last time they won the World Series thanks in part to Miggy, and missed out on the Rookie of the Year award to teammate Dontrelle Willis. Since then, he's been an All-Star 7 times, won 3 Silver Slugger awards (notably missing from his impressive resume is a single Gold Glove), and has been a home run, batting average and RBI champion, albeit in separate years. Since 2008, though, he's been a legitimate Triple Crown candidate every season, and this year he's gotten closer than ever before: as of now, he's leading in batting average and RBIs, and is behind Josh Hamilton for the home run lead by only one long ball. Never known for his stellar defense at first, Cabrera has made the transition to third as smoothly as someone who's 240 pounds can play at a position for people who are lighter and quicker. He's received MVP votes in every single season he's played, and was in the top 5 for three of those years, but this season is the first time that he's one of the clear-cut probables. To make an even stronger case for himself this year, he's a legitimate shot to win the first Triple Crown since Boston's Carl Yastrzemski did it in 1967. And, if it weren't for the youngster we're about to discuss, he'd run away with the award for the first time in his relatively short career.

"Bryce Harper's going to be the best rookie this year? We'll see about that."

Trout, 21, burst onto the scene this year and he already has people drawing comparisons to Mickey Mantle and Rickey Henderson. In a year where Bryce Harper was slated to be the hottest rookie in baseball, Mike has made opposing teams look silly: even though he missed nearly the whole first month of the season, his stats (.322 average, 30 home runs, 80 RBIs, 48 stolen bases and an OPS flirting with 1.000) are absolutely shocking. The catch he made to rob Orioles shortstop J.J. Hardy of a home run is already being hailed as one of the greatest defensive plays in years. It says a lot about you when Albert Pujols is in the same lineup as you, but YOU are the most intimidating batter on the team. Even after their flurry of offseason moves that had most baseball fans calling the 2012 World Series in their favor, the Angels suffered mightily before bringing up the young phenom. Before Mike was called up on April 28, the Angels, with all their added star power, were only 7-14. Pujols hadn't hit a single homer. Since then, they've gone 81-56. Coincidence, maybe, but it's hard to argue that he added the final boost they needed in Anaheim. He was a little Trout in a big pond, but he's made the game look like a puddle in the way that nobody seems to be able to contain him.

So if the stats are so similar, which slugger deserves the top honors more? Both are on a team that is struggling to make the playoffs, even though their respective franchises were supposedly scheduled to meet in this year's ALCS, just further proof that you can't determine a winner by how much they spend (yes, this is coming from a Yankees fan). Both have insane talent and ability, so much so that their numbers this year aren't even considered good for them, but rather the rule instead of the exception. For comparison's sake, almost any other position player would have a career year just with Trout's numbers, let alone Miggy's. Both are either in their prime or years away from it, and Trout's trajectory is startling similar to Cabrera's.

But which one is Most Valuable?

Can't we just make them both MVP? This is too hard.

According to the sabermetrics, every math geek's best friend, Trout is leading baseball with a 10.4 WAR, Wins Above Replacement, which factors in a starting player's performance and determines his worth compared to that of a replacement-level bench player. Cabrera is only at 6.7. Trout's BABIP, Batting Average on Balls In Play, is an outrageous .374, while Cabrera's is only (used very sarcastically) .328. According to UZR (Ultimate Zone Rating), a metric that determines a player's worth defensively, Trout is absolutely spectacular, rating a 13.3 in the field, whereas Cabrera is a -9.2 at third base, as if there was any more proof necessary that he's unfit for the position. When it boils right down to it, Cabrera may have Trout beat offensively (and not even by that much), but defensively, sabermetrically, and overall statistically, Trout bests his contemporary without question.

One's gunning for the first batting Triple Crown in 45 years, the other is the youngest player to ever record a 30/30 season. There is no wrong decision. For my part (and the part of a slightly biased, well-informed friend who advised me on this post), I'm going with Mike Trout for MVP. But if Miguel Cabrera wins it, I can't say I'll be upset. And seeing as this is one of the best offseason award races in years, baseball and its fans win either way.

A Giant Hill To Climb.

After a year in which their ace forgot how to throw, their catcher forgot he was the powerhouse until the second half, and their star outfielder forgot how to play clean, the San Francisco Giants managed to remember how to dominate the NL West division in a manner reminiscent to the way they did in 2010, when they brought the city its first World Series title, and clinched their second division title in 3 years. But, unlike Matt Cain's masterful perfect game against the Astros a few months ago, it doesn't get easier from here.

Even with Cain, Bumgarner and Vogelsong shutting down opposing lineups, the Giants' rotation hinges on Lincecum.

There are three keys for the Giants if they want to survive this postseason. First, they must figure out Tim Lincecum. I don't mean psychologically or emotionally, they must determine why this 2-time Cy Young winner, the youngest pitcher to 1,000 career strikeouts, a huge part of their previous championship-winning team, has given up more hits and home runs than a pitching machine. It might be easy to say that it's his mechanics finally catching up with him; after all, "The Freak" earned his nickname with his extremely odd, and potentially hazardous, pitching delivery. Or it could be the fact that he's already accomplished more in his career than plenty of his contemporaries, what with the accolades previously mentioned. Whatever it may be that has caused Lincecum to have his first "lost season", Big Time Timmy Jim has to turn it around this October, and become the flamethrowing strikeout machine instead of the Little League tee he's been for batters this season. He's proven that he can turn it on just like that in the postseason: in his only postseason experience in '10, he pitched 37 innings in 6 games, notched a 4-1 record and posted a 2.43 ERA to go along with his 0.93 WHIP. Hopefully the pressure to perform well will get to him in a positive way yet again this postseason.

After a lost 2011, Posey has plenty of reason to grin.

Second, they need to continue nurturing the growth of babyface backstop Buster Posey. After the nasty collision that caused him to sit out two-thirds of the 2011 season, Posey has come to life in 2012, going .332/23/98 with a .946 OPS to this point, which has warranted serious MVP consideration for the burgeoning powerhouse. What's even more crucial to his success, and the success of San Francisco, is that losing most of last year to a painful leg injury as the result of a crash at the plate didn't affect his psyche, as he's playing just as aggressively, blocking players rushing toward the plate like they were Scott Cousins incarnate. One thing he could improve on, though, is his caught stealing percentage: he's only throwing out baserunners at a 30 percent rate, which is good for 10th in baseball (in comparison, the Cardinals' backstop and other potential MVP candidate Yadier Molina has a 47 percent success rate). If batters on base in the postseason know they can safely run on Posey, it'll be hard to contain them on the basepaths. Other than that, as long as he keeps going with this stride he's hit, Buster could find himself leaping into the arms of his closer yet again this October.

Going into the playoffs without Melky was not in the Giants' plans, but they can triumph without him.

Finally, the Giants must continue to get production out of their outfield, even after the loss of All-Star Game MVP and performance-enhancing drug user Melky Cabrera. While the Melkman will be available to make deliveries this postseason, his 50-game suspension wouldn't end until about 6 games into the playoffs (if the Giants make it that far), meaning manager Bruce Bochy would have to keep a roster spot open for him once he returns, a very risky move when every bench player could be the difference between a champagne bath on November's eve and looking at a bare ring finger next April (for the record, Bochy has already stated unequivocally that Cabrera will not play this postseason). Plus, there's no guarantee that Cabrera will come back at 100 percent...or what was 100 percent for him on PEDs, as anyone who's seen him play at all in the previous 3 years when he jumped teams 3 times could tell you that he has never been much more than a fourth outfielder at best, not the offensive force he was this year. Angel Pagan and midseason acquisition Hunter Pence are doing their best in his absence, with Pagan leading the team in runs scored with 93, and Pence notching 100 RBIs for the first time in his career. Their offense needs these two to keep producing, because apart from them, Posey and Pablo "Kung Fu Panda" Sandoval, their lineup is absolutely dreadful. Aubrey Huff? Anyone remember him? .194 batting average with 1 home run and 6 RBIs this year. Admittedly, he's missed nearly the entire season, but it's players like him that you don't want to see come off the bench in Game 7 of the NLCS with everything on the line.

The Giants could find themselves winning it all in October for the second time in 3 years, but it'll take a lot to get past the dominating Reds and the surging Nats/Braves/Cards, much less whichever team the American League has to offer in the Fall Classic, should the San Fran crew make it that far.

A Tale Of (The First) Two Contenders.

If you had spoken to someone before the 2012 season started and asked them who they thought would win the NL Central, there's a good chance that more people would have said the Cardinals or even Brewers before they said the Reds. And if you wanted to know who would garner a postseason berth before the Yankees, Rangers or Giants, it's likely that many fans wouldn't have guessed the Nationals would accomplish such a feat. But here we are, nearing October, and the only two teams who have a guaranteed playoff spot are in Cincinnati and Washington, DC.

This is truly a tale of two teams: one heavily favored, one much less so. One team stacked with consistent bats and gloves, one with far more to prove. One that has tasted postseason success many times in franchise history, one who has starved since the 1930s.

So how did they get here?

First, the Reds. After winning the division over the Cardinals and Brewers in 2010, they exited the playoffs early after falling victim to the second no-hitter in October history thanks to the Phillies' Roy Halladay. In 2011, they finished in 3rd place behind, you guessed it, the Brewers and Cardinals, and had to watch their two division rivals square off in the NLCS, and even more upsetting, saw the Cards win their 11th World Series title. Still, expectations were high entering this season, with Joey Votto signing a long-term extension that guaranteed the ex-MVP would man the cold corner for the Reds for the next decade, and second baseman Brandon Phillips signing a 6-year deal shortly after that. Between the two of them, and other batters like Jay Bruce, Ryan Ludwick, and Chris Heisey, the offense was sure to keep the team afloat even if the rotation or bullpen faltered. The thing is, the rotation and bullpen thrived instead of faltering. Cy Young candidate Johnny Cueto has shut batters down at a fascinating rate, offseason pickup Mat Latos has adjusted well, and flamethrower Aroldis Chapman has blazed into the discussion of the most dominant closer this season. They capitalized on the early-season failings of the Brewers and Cardinals, held off the surging Pirates for the first half, and clinched their second playoff appearance (and NL Central division title) in the past 3 years.

There's plenty of reason for the Reds to celebrate, and there may be even more this October.

In stark contrast, the Nationals came into this season with only one expectation: that, no matter how they finished the year, Stephen Strasburg wouldn't pitch past his "magic number" of innings. There has been much discussion about the possible repercussions of this move (including several posts on this very blog), but the Nats stuck to their word and shut him down. This would have been fine in any of the past 80 years since a baseball team in Washington played in the postseason, but this is a Nationals team unlike its predecessors. Bryce Harper, the most highly-regarded rookie not named Mike Trout, made enough noise for the nation to pay attention to the capital, where the Nats somehow survived injuries to Jayson Werth, Michael Morse Wilson Ramos and kept the offense alive just enough for their extremely dominant rotation, composed of Strasburg (until recently being replaced by stand-in Ross Detweiler), Cy Young hopeful Gio Gonzalez, and breakout star Jordan Zimmermann, to shut down any hopes of the Braves, Phillies, Marlins or Mets winning the NL East division this year. Quick question: which team has the best run differential? Did you guess this team? 666 runs scored, 534 allowed, for a run differential (+132) that's better than that of the Yankees (+103), the Rangers (+119), and the Giants (+62). They are the only team in the National League that has a (positive) run differential that's 3 digits. While they still haven't achieved their division win, it's seemingly just a matter of time.

Everybody's getting into the fun in Washington, regardless of if Strasburg pitches or not.

So how equipped are these teams? Do they have the stuff to make a deep postseason run? Let's break it down:

The Reds have the best first baseman in the National League in Votto, the best closer in Chapman, and one of the top 3 starters in Cueto. They've experienced playoff baseball very recently, and have led their division for nearly the entire season. Their offseason pickups in Latos and Ludwick have been extremely beneficial, and Bruce is a dark horse MVP candidate. Phillips is defending his Gold Glove with aplomb, and is putting together some respectable offensive numbers after winning his first Silver Slugger. Cozart and Todd Frazier have added some serious depth to the offense, and Homer Bailey, Mike Leake, and midseason pickup Jonathan Broxton have done the same for the defense. They rank between 11th and 18th in all offensive stats, and between 3rd and 11th in all defensive stats. If they can clinch home field advantage, they will be the team to beat this October.

The Nationals, again, have a much harder road to postseason success than the Reds do. Losing Strasburg will only hurt the rotation, but Gonzalez, Zimmermann, Detweiler, Edwin Jackson and John Lannan are more than capable of picking up the slack left behind by the young phenom. Werth is the only batter in the lineup with any real playoff experience, so his presence and prior October service times will be invaluable to this young roster. A healthy Morse, a focused Harper, and third baseman Ryan Zimmerman looking to live up to his $100 million extension signed before the season will benefit the offense that ranks between 7th and 11th. As for the pitching? 3rd in quality starts, 2nd in opponents' batting average, 2nd in WHIP, and 1st in ERA. You can't argue with that. Still, it doesn't seem like this team is structured to play very far into the playoffs, at least this year. The rational behind shutting down Strasburg was the hopes that the Nats would be in the postseason mix for years to come, so a Washington roster with him on it would be much more favored to be true contenders. This year, though, it looks bleak.

If they meet in October?

Catcher: CIN Devin Mesoraco, WAS Kurt Suzuki     Advantage: CIN
First baseman: CIN Joey Votto, WAS Adam LaRoche     Advantage: CIN
Second baseman: CIN Brandon Phillips, WAS Danny Espinosa     Advantage: CIN
Shortstop: CIN Zack Cozart, WAS Ian Desmond     Advantage: WAS
Third baseman: CIN Scott Rolen, WAS Ryan Zimmerman     Advantage: WAS
Left field: CIN Ryan Ludwick, WAS Roger Bernadina     Advantage: CIN
Center field: CIN Drew Stubbs, WAS Bryce Harper     Advantage: WAS
Right field: CIN Jay Bruce, WAS Jayson Werth     Advantage: CIN
Rotation: CIN Cueto, Arroyo, Latos, Bailey, Leake; WAS Gonzalez, Zimmermann, Jackson, Detweiler, Lannan     Advantage: WAS
Closer: CIN Aroldis Chapman, WAS Tyler Clippard     Advantage: CIN

Overall Advantage: CIN

Will either team win it all this October? Hell, anything can happen. Between the two, the smart money's on Cincinnati, but we know now that you can't count the Nats out. As a famous philosopher once said, it ain't over 'til it's over.

All Right, Shut It Down.

Stephen Strasburg hoped this day wouldn't come. Davey Johnson knew this day would come. Mike Rizzo continued to insist this day would come. The Nationals will suffer because this day has come.

That's right, folks...Shutdown Day has arrived. Sooner than expected, no less. And there's a good chance that the pitching-fueled dominance that has made October baseball in the nation's capital all but a certainty for the first time since 1933 will soon come to a screeching halt.

Strasburg will be a great hurler for years to come...so how important is this year?

Strasburg had Tommy John surgery after just 12 starts in his debut 2010 season, where he went 5-3 with a 2.91 ERA and 92 strikeouts. It was a harsh blow to the highly-touted 22 year old who was expected to save baseball in DC (this was before Bryce Harper Christ graced us with His presence), and Tommy John surgery is still a procedure that is difficult to come back from, with a recovery period of around a year. He managed 5 starts in the end of 2011, posting a 1.50 ERA and a minuscule 0.71 WHIP. He was everything the Nats hoped he would be when they selected him with the top pick in the 2009 draft: strong, smooth, and virtually untouchable. Then, just before his first full season in 2012, Rizzo made an announcement that immediately cast a shadow over the entire year: Strasburg would not finish out the season. He would pitch to a certain "magic number", long speculated to be around 160 innings, then be shut down for the rest of the season. He finished with 159.1 innings pitched, a 15-6 record, a 3.16 ERA, a 1.15 WHIP, and 197 strikeouts, good for an astonishing 11.13 K/9, and an even more impressive 4.10 K/BB with 48 walks.

Why not let him pitch a full year? Why not start him in the bullpen and work his way slowly into the rotation? Why not keep him inactive in the first month of the season so he could pitch in the playoffs? Why not limit his innings per start to stretch it out longer? Why not skip a few of his starts? Why not reactivate him and let him pitch in the postseason? All these questions have been shouted by everyone aware of the situation for almost 5 months now, and no reason has been given. We may never fully understand why Rizzo and the Nationals decided to handle his first full season in the majors in such a way. We'll never know what could have been if he was allowed to pitch the rest of the year, and in the playoffs, should the Nats still find themselves leading the division on October 3rd. Not many organizations willingly shut down their ace and Cy Young candidate a month before entering the playoffs, let alone after a 70 year drought.

The Nationals still have good pitching. Offseason acquisition Gio Gonzalez now becomes the de facto ace, if he wasn't already (18-7, 2.98 ERA), and Jordan Zimmermann (10-8, 2.99 ERA) has also been quietly having a fantastic season. With a revolving door of Edwin Jackson, Ross Detweiler, John Lannan and Chien-Ming Wang occupying the last three spots in the rotation, the Nats have managed to stave off the advances of Chipper Jones performing his swan song with the Braves, and with some luck in the rest of the division absolutely falling apart this season, they capitalized on their golden opportunity.

So why shut Strasburg down? This kind of season probably won't happen again for Washington. They are built to last, with a solid core of young players and veterans, the offense has come alive in ways they couldn't have imagined as the Expos, and the pitching, of course, has been stellar. The Nats are excellent, to be sure. The Braves are also excellent, and are getting even better. The Phillies won't be cellar-dwellers two years in a row. The Marlins, once they figure out how to bat Giancarlo Stanton in every position in the lineup, will be tough to beat. Even the Mets won't be a joke for too much longer. This seems almost like a season of destiny. It just had to be the same season that the man who should have stood at the forefront of this magical run would be deactivated with a month to go before the playoffs.

Can these two help bring a championship to Washington? We never expected that they might do it this season, so why not next year?

It's not up to us. Hell, it's really not even up to Strasburg. Well-known for his competitive spirit, Stephen made it extremely clear all year that, while he may not have been happy with the decision, he respected Washington for making it and sticking with it, while looking out for his best interests. But in this season? This year? Why did it have to be now? This is a franchise that, even during their time in Montreal, never reached the postseason (1981 and 1994, the only years during which the Expos were possible contenders, were both shortened by strikes), and now that they're finally poised to do so, and maybe reach their first World Series ever (the Mariners are the only other team who've never played in a Fall Classic), they're willingly taking away one of the biggest reasons that got them to where they are. Yes, there's the rest of his career to consider. Sure, he's pitched more innings than he ever has in his career. OK, the thinking for the Nats is that they'll be able to maintain this level of team production for years to come. But in this game, where tides can turn and seasons can be made or broken in one game, you don't take anything for granted. You don't take any chances that haven't been carefully researched, with every possible outcome considered and the consequences that come with them understood. When it comes down to it, the front office made the decision they thought would be best for their franchise, bottom line, no matter what. They were presented with all the facts and figures from Strasburg's agent, mega-prick Scott Boras, and were able to make their own informed conclusion from that. Whether we as fans, his teammates as contenders, or Strasburg as the player in question, agree with the decision made or not, it's not up to us.

If Mike Rizzo and Davey Johnson are lucky, this decision will be meaningless in 5 years. If what they believe will happen does transpire, the Nationals will keep baseball alive in the District of Columbia for many Octobers to come, and we'll all be able to look back at this decision and laugh. But if this ends up being a Cinderella story for the ages, and the Nats intentionally shatter the glass slipper 15 minutes before midnight, this fairy tale won't have such a happy ending.