Sunday, August 8, 2010

If You Can't Beat 'Em, Ruin Their Playoff Hopes.

In the 6 months every year when baseball is in, pun intended, full swing, the dynamic and mission of every team changes drastically. In the first month or so, every team is gunning for the postseason right from the get-go: they play every game with October in mind, all hoping they can get a lead on the other teams in their division and clinch a playoff berth. Then, about 3 months in, the race is starting to take on a different shape: some teams are fighting for the top spot, while others play just to keep their hopes alive. Right around the end of July and beginning of August is when the game changes once again: by this time, there's a clear gap between teams still in the running, and those who will be subjected to hearing the phrase "Better luck next season" until spring training rolls around. However, it's at this point in the race that things become the most interesting, especially in a season like 2010, where every division except the AL West does not have a clear, definitive, predictable winner.

For example, say the Yankees are playing the Orioles. The Yankees are a game and a half in front of the Rays for the division lead right now, whereas the Orioles have the worst record in baseball (just a game or two under the Pirates, which we already know how I feel about them). Let's imagine for just a moment that, by some miraculous act of God, the O's sweep the Pinstripes in a 3 game series, and in that same span of time, the Rays beat the Tigers in a similar 3 game series (not so hard to envision, the Tigers got the first win of the season against Tampa Bay today). This means that the Rays are now ahead of the Yankees by 2.5 games. While Baltimore and Detroit, both already too far behind to make a serious push for the postseason, aren't heavily affected by winning or losing, they've changed the division standings for the AL East pretty drastically for this point in the season. In May or June, a similar situation would be disheartening, but not destructive. However, in mid-August, with New York and Tampa in such a close struggle, this could change the course of the rest of the season.

Then, there are teams that are somewhere in the middle: a few games back of the division leaders, but not so far back that they've been eliminated. While some teams can afford to lose at the top and bottom of each division, it's the team or teams in the middle that cannot. For example, the Red Sox are currently 5 games behind the Yankees for the lead in the division, and 3.5 games behind the Rays for the wild card. If they play a 3 game series with the Twins at the same time as these two other series and win 2 but drop 1, they're in a tight situation: they pull closer to the Yankees in the standings, but unfortunately for them, the Bombers aren't leading the division now since the Rays pulled ahead. Therefore, the Sox have to work extra hard to even stay in the race.

My original point is this: this late in the season, some teams are so far out of 1st place that no matter how many games they win, it's no use...however, they can still trip up some teams that are still in the race. And, in a lot of ways, that's more dangerous than them being serious contenders. If they start winning games against teams that are going for a playoff spot, they can shift the standings so heavily that a favorite may drop too many games and end the season on a disappointing note, so don't stop paying attention to teams who drop below by .500...that's when they're most deadly.

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