Let's dive right into today's FKFK the same way we always do.
Buy Buy Buy - Alfredo Simon, SP, Detroit Tigers
If I told you 3 years ago that in the 2015 season, the Tigers rotation would be led by a right-handed power pitcher with a strong fastball, you'd have probably laughed and said "No way, Justin Verlander will be pitching for another team by then." Well, idiot from 3 years ago, I hate to tell you this, but not only is JV still in Detroit, but we aren't talking about him. An offseason acquisition from the Reds, Simon, 33, had a renaissance year in 2014, pitching to a 3.44 ERA (4.33 FIP) in 196 1/3 innings, his first season as a starter since 2011. He won't ever be a big strikeout hurler, as the 7.67 K/9 he posted back in 2012 still represents a career high, and the low BABIP is also a sign that regression is due, but if he can continue to limit walks at a 0.87 clip per 9, that will go a long way towards keeping the ERA and FIP roughly in line with each other. While his fastball has dropped this season from 94 MPH to 92, Simon's pinpoint control normally helps him avoid getting into too many jams. He's never posted any particularly overwhelming numbers until last season, and even those put him in the "acceptable" fantasy tier rather than the "must-draft" tier. Still, until the blowup comes to pass, he can add a lot of value to your team. Never thought those words would be uttered about an erstwhile murderer.
Sell Em If You Got Em - Mike Zunino, C, Seattle Mariners
Nobody expects a lot of fantasy-relevant numbers to come out of any backstop, but if you're one of the hundreds of people that saw 22 homers next to Zunino's name last year (while somehow ignoring the .199 average), you may have the wool pulled a little too tightly over your eyes. While the 24 year old certainly provides a ton of power from a position not known for it, the rest of Zunino's counting stats suffer mightily even when compared to other catchers. In 196 career games over the last 3 years, he's managed a .261 OBP and a .364 SLG. When you're struggling to break the .650 mark in OPS, you're simply unqualified to face major league pitching, even if you can call for it with aplomb. In fact, it's likely that Zunino still has the starting job in Seattle due to the lack of depth behind him: Jesus Montero is still in Triple-A fending off snide remarks about his weight, and Jesus Sucre is a make-believe person with 69 plate appearance over the last 2 years. Just because the Mariners can't afford to let him go doesn't mean you should needlessly cling to him, though. Jason Castro of the Astros is available in 90 percent of Yahoo leagues, and is an eminently better hitter.
Hurlers In The Stream - Dan Haren, SP, Miami Marlins
Haren is one of the more well-traveled pitchers in today's game: since 2010, he's been traded from the Diamondbacks to the Angels, played for the Nationals and Dodgers one year apiece, and then shipped to the Marlins during this past offseason. Haren, 34, has managed to stay steadily employed despite a sharp dropoff in the velocity of his fastball; this is likely due to the heavier reliance on his splitter, which he's throwing more frequently as the miles come off his other pitches. In spite of that, Haren remains a relatively competent major league-caliber starter, and the team he's facing tonight in Philadelphia more closely resembles a disinterested Little League squad than an MLB one. While Chase Utley might give him the fits, there's no other reason to believe this matchup won't end in Haren's favor.
Minor League Korner - Addison Russell, SS/2B, Chicago Cubs
We're kinda cheating here, but nobody's actually reading these posts, so does it even matter? If a fantasy expert gets something wrong and nobody's around to call him on it, was he ever really incorrect? The most recent in a long line of Cubs prospects making their debut in the hopes of turning the big league club around, Russell may have the most upside of them all. A middle infielder with power is a beautiful sight to behold, and the 21 year old has that in spades. He can run and field beautifully, but unless you're playing in a defense league (and let's face it, you probably don't), that isn't going to help you. What will help you if you're a Russell owner is him playing half of his games in the Friendliest of Confines: with the wind blowing out, most hits coming off of Russell's bat should find some part of the ivy at Wrigley Field if nothing else. Slotting him ahead of Kris Bryant in the lineup should also give Russell a boost, as it'll become much harder for pitchers to pitch around him. The future continues to get brighter in Chicago, another nonsensical sentiment.
A reformed Yankees fan, resplendent in his newly-found baseball bitterness. DISCLAIMER: I neither took nor own any pictures you see on this blog.
Tuesday, April 21, 2015
Monday, April 20, 2015
TBF's Fantastically Kontrived Fantasy Korner - April 20th
Welcome back, fantasy owners and disinterested jerks alike! Hope you all managed to get through the weekend relatively unscathed, and that my "expert" advice has already helped you reach new, imaginary heights. Here we go with week 2 of said advice, in week 3 of the actual MLB season.
Buy Buy Buy - Carlos Rodon, SP/RP, Chicago White Sox
Not to be outdone by their crosstown NL counterparts who called up their own uber-prospect this past weekend (maybe you've heard of him? Kid named Bryant??), the floundering ChiSox are finally promoting Rodon, the third pick in last year's draft and, by all accounts, an absolute force on the bump. While indicative of nothing, Rodon, 22, notched a K/9 of 13.4 in 34 1/3 innings last season, going straight from Single- to Triple-A without missing a beat. He held opponents to a .215 batting average in that same span, which is a lot lower than it may sound (remember, minor leaguers routinely hit over .300). The best news is that you don't need to fret about making space for him in your rotation, because he's slated to start his major league career in the bullpen a la future rotation mate Chris Sale. This way, Rodon won't get too much mileage on his arm before becoming a starter full-time, increasing the likelihood that he and that disgusting slider will last longer through the fatigue of the baseball season. The future looks bright in Chicago, a sentence that hasn't been uttered in decades.
Sell Em If You Got Em - Russell Martin, C, Toronto Blue Jays
It was a nice feel-good moment when Martin, a Montreal native (if only that city had a baseball team...), signed with Canada's only baseball team this offseason, but the jingoism can only go so far. Nobody expected Martin, 32, to replicate the .402 OBP he provided during his final campaign with the Pirates, but he's gotten off to an extremely slow start to begin this season. He's currently sporting a .623 OPS, and I know, small sample sizes, blah blah blah, but the Jays didn't give him $82 million to hit like a Molina (Yadier excluded). Martin's pitch framing abilities are his strongest assets, to be clear, so he isn't expected to be the offensive sparkplug in a lineup that also houses Jose Bautista, Edwin Encarnacion and offseason acquisition Josh Donaldson. Still, a .129 average is ugly no matter how many games have been played to this point. If Martin doesn't get things going soon, you may want to start fielding offers for him on the low end.
Hurlers In The Stream - Anthony DeSclafani, SP, Cincinnati Reds
The linchpin of the Mat Latos trade, DeSclafani was highly touted with both Toronto and Miami before finally making Cincinnati's Opening Day roster this year. He doesn't throw a lot of strikeouts, nor does he prevent baserunners at an impressive rate. What DeSclafani does best, though, is mix his pinpoint command with a fastball that has become his calling card. He issues very few walks, which will be crucial against a Brewers team looking for offense anywhere it can be found. The 25 year old recently added a curveball to his repertoire, and while its efficacy is undetermined as of yet, a solid curve helps cross up a lot of hitters, especially if thrown unexpectedly. The Reds haven't gotten off to the best start, but they could still play saboteur early on and kick the flailing Brewers while they're down. DeSclafani would definitely go a long way to that end.
TBF's Current Standing - After starting the season in 5th place, I beat Zach, the 4th place team, which caused the two of us to flip in the standings. I'm still looking up at three very strong teams, and will be facing the first-place team this week, but I'm confident that my roster will eventually garner me a playoff spot. In our league, 6 teams make the playoffs out of 10, so as long as I can stay above 7th, your favorite writer (I'm assuming) will have another chance to do some real damage come September.
Buy Buy Buy - Carlos Rodon, SP/RP, Chicago White Sox
Not to be outdone by their crosstown NL counterparts who called up their own uber-prospect this past weekend (maybe you've heard of him? Kid named Bryant??), the floundering ChiSox are finally promoting Rodon, the third pick in last year's draft and, by all accounts, an absolute force on the bump. While indicative of nothing, Rodon, 22, notched a K/9 of 13.4 in 34 1/3 innings last season, going straight from Single- to Triple-A without missing a beat. He held opponents to a .215 batting average in that same span, which is a lot lower than it may sound (remember, minor leaguers routinely hit over .300). The best news is that you don't need to fret about making space for him in your rotation, because he's slated to start his major league career in the bullpen a la future rotation mate Chris Sale. This way, Rodon won't get too much mileage on his arm before becoming a starter full-time, increasing the likelihood that he and that disgusting slider will last longer through the fatigue of the baseball season. The future looks bright in Chicago, a sentence that hasn't been uttered in decades.
Sell Em If You Got Em - Russell Martin, C, Toronto Blue Jays
It was a nice feel-good moment when Martin, a Montreal native (if only that city had a baseball team...), signed with Canada's only baseball team this offseason, but the jingoism can only go so far. Nobody expected Martin, 32, to replicate the .402 OBP he provided during his final campaign with the Pirates, but he's gotten off to an extremely slow start to begin this season. He's currently sporting a .623 OPS, and I know, small sample sizes, blah blah blah, but the Jays didn't give him $82 million to hit like a Molina (Yadier excluded). Martin's pitch framing abilities are his strongest assets, to be clear, so he isn't expected to be the offensive sparkplug in a lineup that also houses Jose Bautista, Edwin Encarnacion and offseason acquisition Josh Donaldson. Still, a .129 average is ugly no matter how many games have been played to this point. If Martin doesn't get things going soon, you may want to start fielding offers for him on the low end.
Hurlers In The Stream - Anthony DeSclafani, SP, Cincinnati Reds
The linchpin of the Mat Latos trade, DeSclafani was highly touted with both Toronto and Miami before finally making Cincinnati's Opening Day roster this year. He doesn't throw a lot of strikeouts, nor does he prevent baserunners at an impressive rate. What DeSclafani does best, though, is mix his pinpoint command with a fastball that has become his calling card. He issues very few walks, which will be crucial against a Brewers team looking for offense anywhere it can be found. The 25 year old recently added a curveball to his repertoire, and while its efficacy is undetermined as of yet, a solid curve helps cross up a lot of hitters, especially if thrown unexpectedly. The Reds haven't gotten off to the best start, but they could still play saboteur early on and kick the flailing Brewers while they're down. DeSclafani would definitely go a long way to that end.
TBF's Current Standing - After starting the season in 5th place, I beat Zach, the 4th place team, which caused the two of us to flip in the standings. I'm still looking up at three very strong teams, and will be facing the first-place team this week, but I'm confident that my roster will eventually garner me a playoff spot. In our league, 6 teams make the playoffs out of 10, so as long as I can stay above 7th, your favorite writer (I'm assuming) will have another chance to do some real damage come September.
Friday, April 17, 2015
TBF's Fantastically Kontrived Fantasy Korner - April 17th
We've finally reached the end of our first week!! That's right, you fantasy owners are on your own for the weekend. Before that, let's take a look at some guys who could help you get through to Monday (and close out your matchup in style).
Buy Buy Buy - Kris Bryant, 3B, Chicago Cubs
You had to know this one was coming. As expected by every single person on the planet, the Cubs have recalled Bryant from Triple-A to make his major league debut today. The 23 year old has absolutely monstrous power, and you've probably stopped reading this already, haven't you? There's honestly no need for me to explain anything about this kid, but just as a reminder, here's what he provided across Double- and Triple-A last season: .325/.438/.661, 43 homers, 325 total bases, and a dazzling smile. He tore through Spring Training, but was sent back to the minors to work on his defense. Apparently, his defense improved so swiftly that it only took juuuuust enough time to ensure that the Cubs will control Bryant through 2021 instead of 2020. Coincidence? You be the judge. While you'll need to expect a ton of strikeouts to go with all the extra-base hits, is that really going to stop you from making a play for him? If you own him, you're not selling. If he's a free agent in your league, you're playing in a league with absolute morons, including you. God (or Theo Epstein) said, "Let there be light-tower power", and He saw that it was damn good.
Sell Em If You Got Em - Tim Beckham, 2B, Tampa Bay Rays
It feels kinda crummy to advise selling Beckham (on the slim chance he's actually owned in your league), since the former first overall draft pick has had a very difficult road to the majors. Beckham, 25, had a cup of coffee back in 2013, but this is his first year starting at the keystone after the trade that sent Ben Zobrist and Yunel Escobar to Oakland. While he's performed at an acceptable rate through the first handful of games, he's already struck out 9 times in 21 at-bats. He doesn't walk much either, which will kill you in OBP. Is the power worth it? Considering that he's never hit more than 6 homers in a season (and that was back in Triple-A during the 2012 season), I'd have to say no. Beckham has the speed and potential to steal 15 bags in the bigs, but he hasn't swiped a single base yet. In fact, he's only stolen 18 total since the 2013 season began. I know that keeping him off your roster may seem like a given, but you'd be surprised how deep some leagues are. There isn't a league deep enough to justify having Beckham as your second baseman, though...except MLB, I suppose.
Hurlers In The Stream - Drew Hutchison, SP, Toronto Blue Jays
He may not have the same nominal recognition of rotation mates Mark Buehrle, R.A. Dickey or Marcus Stroman, but Hutchison is as vital a cog in the Blue Jays as any of those pitchers. In 184 2/3 innings last season, the 24 year old had a strong left-on-base percentage of 71.2. That's going to be crucial as the Jays take on the Braves at home. While the Atlanta crew has gotten off to a scorching offensive start, something few anticipated, it isn't sustainable: guys like Nick Markakis, Cameron Maybin and (gulp) Alberto Callaspo aren't slugging machines, but they all have the ability to put the ball in play and beat it out. Therefore, having a guy like Hutchison on the bump makes a lot of sense as far as holding the running game. If he mixes his offspeed stuff in more frequently, as he's done in small samples this year, it should be enough to cross up a depleted lineup like the one coming to the Great White North from the South.
Weekend Warrior - Billy Butler, DH, Oakland Athletics
For the first time in his career, Butler will play on the Royals' home field, Kauffman Stadium, as a visitor after signing with the A's this past offseason. Although Kauffman is murder on right-handed sluggers, Butler's OPS is almost 90 points higher there than on the road, .851 to .767. He's off to a fairly hot start this season, something that could boost his chances of having a big weekend. This part is purely sentimental, but he turns 29 tomorrow, and players often reach back and try a little harder on their cake day. I'm not saying you should expect Country Breakfast to steal 5 bases over the course of this series, but a couple of long balls and some timely hits should be in the pipeline for the big man's return to the Midwest.
Buy Buy Buy - Kris Bryant, 3B, Chicago Cubs
You had to know this one was coming. As expected by every single person on the planet, the Cubs have recalled Bryant from Triple-A to make his major league debut today. The 23 year old has absolutely monstrous power, and you've probably stopped reading this already, haven't you? There's honestly no need for me to explain anything about this kid, but just as a reminder, here's what he provided across Double- and Triple-A last season: .325/.438/.661, 43 homers, 325 total bases, and a dazzling smile. He tore through Spring Training, but was sent back to the minors to work on his defense. Apparently, his defense improved so swiftly that it only took juuuuust enough time to ensure that the Cubs will control Bryant through 2021 instead of 2020. Coincidence? You be the judge. While you'll need to expect a ton of strikeouts to go with all the extra-base hits, is that really going to stop you from making a play for him? If you own him, you're not selling. If he's a free agent in your league, you're playing in a league with absolute morons, including you. God (or Theo Epstein) said, "Let there be light-tower power", and He saw that it was damn good.
Sell Em If You Got Em - Tim Beckham, 2B, Tampa Bay Rays
It feels kinda crummy to advise selling Beckham (on the slim chance he's actually owned in your league), since the former first overall draft pick has had a very difficult road to the majors. Beckham, 25, had a cup of coffee back in 2013, but this is his first year starting at the keystone after the trade that sent Ben Zobrist and Yunel Escobar to Oakland. While he's performed at an acceptable rate through the first handful of games, he's already struck out 9 times in 21 at-bats. He doesn't walk much either, which will kill you in OBP. Is the power worth it? Considering that he's never hit more than 6 homers in a season (and that was back in Triple-A during the 2012 season), I'd have to say no. Beckham has the speed and potential to steal 15 bags in the bigs, but he hasn't swiped a single base yet. In fact, he's only stolen 18 total since the 2013 season began. I know that keeping him off your roster may seem like a given, but you'd be surprised how deep some leagues are. There isn't a league deep enough to justify having Beckham as your second baseman, though...except MLB, I suppose.
Hurlers In The Stream - Drew Hutchison, SP, Toronto Blue Jays
He may not have the same nominal recognition of rotation mates Mark Buehrle, R.A. Dickey or Marcus Stroman, but Hutchison is as vital a cog in the Blue Jays as any of those pitchers. In 184 2/3 innings last season, the 24 year old had a strong left-on-base percentage of 71.2. That's going to be crucial as the Jays take on the Braves at home. While the Atlanta crew has gotten off to a scorching offensive start, something few anticipated, it isn't sustainable: guys like Nick Markakis, Cameron Maybin and (gulp) Alberto Callaspo aren't slugging machines, but they all have the ability to put the ball in play and beat it out. Therefore, having a guy like Hutchison on the bump makes a lot of sense as far as holding the running game. If he mixes his offspeed stuff in more frequently, as he's done in small samples this year, it should be enough to cross up a depleted lineup like the one coming to the Great White North from the South.
Weekend Warrior - Billy Butler, DH, Oakland Athletics
For the first time in his career, Butler will play on the Royals' home field, Kauffman Stadium, as a visitor after signing with the A's this past offseason. Although Kauffman is murder on right-handed sluggers, Butler's OPS is almost 90 points higher there than on the road, .851 to .767. He's off to a fairly hot start this season, something that could boost his chances of having a big weekend. This part is purely sentimental, but he turns 29 tomorrow, and players often reach back and try a little harder on their cake day. I'm not saying you should expect Country Breakfast to steal 5 bases over the course of this series, but a couple of long balls and some timely hits should be in the pipeline for the big man's return to the Midwest.
Thursday, April 16, 2015
TBF's Fantastically Kontrived Fantasy Korner - April 16th
Ahh, we've finally hit our first Thursday post. With so few games being played today, this is a fantastic opportunity to scour your league's waiver wire (or, in most cases, the rosters of your opponents) for some impact guys who could help you this weekend and beyond. As we always do, we'll take a look at a select few right here and now.
Buy Buy Buy - Paul Goldschmidt, 1B, Arizona Diamondbacks
There really hasn't been any reason to root for the Diamondbacks as of late. The team plays poorly and, until the regime change last season, were poor sports to boot, beaning guys like Andrew McCutchen in retaliation for Goldschmidt's season-ending wrist injury from a HBP. Well, Goldy's back at full power this year, and he could give Cutch another run for his money in the MVP voting. Even though he missed 53 games last season, he still managed to launch 19 baseballs into orbit one year after hitting nearly twice as many (36, to be exact) in 2013. Equally important is his ability to get on base, as his OBP has flirted with .400 in both of the last two years. Playing half of his games in the hitter-friendly Chase Field will certainly boost Goldschmidt's counting numbers, but make no mistake: with that expertly-timed swing of his, he could hit on an airport runway and knock a plane out of the sky. As long as nobody seeks him out for unnecessary revenge, it's not crazy to expect 40 home runs out of big Paulie G this year.
Sell Em If You Got Em - Chris Davis, 1B, Baltimore Orioles
Man, 2013 really does seem like a long time ago. Davis followed up a season in which he led baseball by a mile with 53 homers and 138 RBI (as well as an MVP runner-up finish) with an absolutely abysmal 2014 that saw his batting average dip below the Mendoza line and ended with a 25-game suspension, the last game of which was Opening Day of this year, for a failed drug test for Adderall. Although he managed to secure a TUE this year, it's still unclear which version of The Slugger Formerly Known As Crush will show up to OPACY this year. The power should remain intact, as he still notched 26 homers in limited action last season, but to post a .196 batting average in a year when his swinging percentage dropped to a career low is a very troubling sign. Don't hang on to the mirage for too long.
Hurlers In The Stream - Jason Vargas, SP, Kansas City Royals
It's hard to make a case for owning Vargas, even if only for a day. He pitches to contact, which isn't a good thing when you consider that his fastball rarely breaks 90 MPH. He's become increasingly reliant on his curve and changeup, neither of which are considered plus pitches. Curiously, he tends to induce roughly as many fly balls as grounders. So why stream him? Because he's facing the Twins, tantamount to facing a Little League team at this venture. Don't expect a lot of strikeouts tonight, even if Minnesota's offense is so weak that manager Paul Molitor could suit up and hit better than his entire roster. That's just not Vargas's style. What you can expect is 6 solid innings with a fairly low WHIP, which could be enough to make the difference in your matchup (I know it certainly could in mine). Thursdays are always the day of the week wherein streaming options are scarce, so unless you'd rather take the guy Vargas is facing (Tommy Milone, ehh), it's either him or nobody. Enjoy.
Sleeping To Success - Lucas Duda, 1B, New York Mets
For our third first baseman of the post (I swear, this was not planned...), Duda may not have the name recognition of the two guys above him, but that doesn't mean that he can't help your team out in a significant way. The 29 year old Duda played in a career high 153 games in 2014, wherein he delivered 30 long balls to a Mets team that was hard up for power. This year, he should be the offensive spark plug in a lineup that includes David Wright, Michael Cuddyer and Curtis Granderson. A metric buttload of things would have to happen for these 4 guys to combine for 100 homers, but why couldn't they give you at least 80? This is surely what the Mets are hoping for, and it starts with Duda. If he can get rolling, it'll be hard to pitch around him with those other guys looming large.
Buy Buy Buy - Paul Goldschmidt, 1B, Arizona Diamondbacks
There really hasn't been any reason to root for the Diamondbacks as of late. The team plays poorly and, until the regime change last season, were poor sports to boot, beaning guys like Andrew McCutchen in retaliation for Goldschmidt's season-ending wrist injury from a HBP. Well, Goldy's back at full power this year, and he could give Cutch another run for his money in the MVP voting. Even though he missed 53 games last season, he still managed to launch 19 baseballs into orbit one year after hitting nearly twice as many (36, to be exact) in 2013. Equally important is his ability to get on base, as his OBP has flirted with .400 in both of the last two years. Playing half of his games in the hitter-friendly Chase Field will certainly boost Goldschmidt's counting numbers, but make no mistake: with that expertly-timed swing of his, he could hit on an airport runway and knock a plane out of the sky. As long as nobody seeks him out for unnecessary revenge, it's not crazy to expect 40 home runs out of big Paulie G this year.
Sell Em If You Got Em - Chris Davis, 1B, Baltimore Orioles
Man, 2013 really does seem like a long time ago. Davis followed up a season in which he led baseball by a mile with 53 homers and 138 RBI (as well as an MVP runner-up finish) with an absolutely abysmal 2014 that saw his batting average dip below the Mendoza line and ended with a 25-game suspension, the last game of which was Opening Day of this year, for a failed drug test for Adderall. Although he managed to secure a TUE this year, it's still unclear which version of The Slugger Formerly Known As Crush will show up to OPACY this year. The power should remain intact, as he still notched 26 homers in limited action last season, but to post a .196 batting average in a year when his swinging percentage dropped to a career low is a very troubling sign. Don't hang on to the mirage for too long.
Hurlers In The Stream - Jason Vargas, SP, Kansas City Royals
It's hard to make a case for owning Vargas, even if only for a day. He pitches to contact, which isn't a good thing when you consider that his fastball rarely breaks 90 MPH. He's become increasingly reliant on his curve and changeup, neither of which are considered plus pitches. Curiously, he tends to induce roughly as many fly balls as grounders. So why stream him? Because he's facing the Twins, tantamount to facing a Little League team at this venture. Don't expect a lot of strikeouts tonight, even if Minnesota's offense is so weak that manager Paul Molitor could suit up and hit better than his entire roster. That's just not Vargas's style. What you can expect is 6 solid innings with a fairly low WHIP, which could be enough to make the difference in your matchup (I know it certainly could in mine). Thursdays are always the day of the week wherein streaming options are scarce, so unless you'd rather take the guy Vargas is facing (Tommy Milone, ehh), it's either him or nobody. Enjoy.
Sleeping To Success - Lucas Duda, 1B, New York Mets
For our third first baseman of the post (I swear, this was not planned...), Duda may not have the name recognition of the two guys above him, but that doesn't mean that he can't help your team out in a significant way. The 29 year old Duda played in a career high 153 games in 2014, wherein he delivered 30 long balls to a Mets team that was hard up for power. This year, he should be the offensive spark plug in a lineup that includes David Wright, Michael Cuddyer and Curtis Granderson. A metric buttload of things would have to happen for these 4 guys to combine for 100 homers, but why couldn't they give you at least 80? This is surely what the Mets are hoping for, and it starts with Duda. If he can get rolling, it'll be hard to pitch around him with those other guys looming large.
Wednesday, April 15, 2015
TBF's Fantastically Kontrived Fantasy Korner - April 15th
Happy Jackie Robinson Day!! Let's get down to some fantasy advice on this memorable occasion.
Buy Buy Buy - Xander Bogaerts, SS, Boston Red Sox
The Red Sock with the most difficult name to correctly spell since Jarrod Saltalamacchia, Bogaerts was a longtime top prospect before making his debut shortly before Boston won their most recent World Series in 2013 (UGH). His emergence made the Red Sox feel comfortable letting Stephen Drew walk before last season, although Xander's 2014 was a dismal campaign. His torrid start to 2015 (.433/.500/.533 through 7 games) likely isn't indicative of what his final numbers will look like, but if he can keep hitting at an acceptable clip, he could potentially give you 15 homers, which is like getting 35 out of a first baseman. Keep in mind that Bogaerts is still 22, an age at which many professional ballplayers are still toiling in the minors. With his knee issue (which looked fine in the MRI taken today), you could snag him for a song if he's owned. If he isn't already owned, why are you still reading this?? Go pick him up!!
Sell Em If You Got Em - Jose Iglesias, SS, Detroit Tigers
You could probably slot a few Tigers in here and have it make perfect sense. Of all the Motown boys that are due for regression, though, no candidate stands out more than the 25 year old middle infielder. Iglesias missed the entire 2014 season with a stress fracture in both shins, but in 109 games with both Boston and Detroit in 2013, he hit .303 (likely fueled by a .356 BABIP). He got on base at a rate of .349, but a slugging percentage of .386 is worrisome, even from a shortstop. Iglesias draws very few walks, although to his credit, his strikeout rate is relatively low. While he probably won't hurt you in any way, it's doubtful that he'll help significantly. If he's on your roster, you'll want to get anything you can for him.
Hurlers In The Stream - Wily Peralta, SP, Milwaukee Brewers
This one might not be such an easy pickup, as Peralta is owned by 63 percent of Yahoo teams, but considering some of the other names going today, he's still the best streaming option whether or not he's a streaming option. Peralta threw 7 strong innings against the red-hot Rockies in his last start, although he recorded only two outs via strikes. He'll be facing another tough lineup today in the Cardinals, but there's plenty of reason to believe he can work effectively against the division rival. The 25 year old typically induces more grounders than fly balls, something that'll definitely help him out against the slap-hitting Cards, and he's using his changeup more frequently to twist batters up. Only make this move if you're feeling brave, but remember that your other streaming options today include Edinson Volquez and Tim Lincecum, so you can do a lot worse than Peralta.
This Hurts Me More Than It Hurts You - Jose Fernandez, SP, Miami Marlins
If you're a clever fantasy player (and I like to think I am), you know how to properly utilize the DL slots you're allotted. No, you don't use them to give injured players a rest. What are you, nuts?? You have DL slots so you can roster an impact player with a long-term injury, obviously! Enter Fernandez. I don't need to tell you how good this kid is, but I will remind everybody that before the 2013 season (wherein he won Rookie of the Year in a landslide and finished in third for Cy Young voting), the 22 year old had never pitched above Single-A. Jose's fastball is disgusting, his curve should be illegal, and his slider glides like a stitched-up bird. Once he comes back from Tommy John surgery in late June or so, would you bet against him returning to that insanely strong form? I know I wouldn't.
Buy Buy Buy - Xander Bogaerts, SS, Boston Red Sox
The Red Sock with the most difficult name to correctly spell since Jarrod Saltalamacchia, Bogaerts was a longtime top prospect before making his debut shortly before Boston won their most recent World Series in 2013 (UGH). His emergence made the Red Sox feel comfortable letting Stephen Drew walk before last season, although Xander's 2014 was a dismal campaign. His torrid start to 2015 (.433/.500/.533 through 7 games) likely isn't indicative of what his final numbers will look like, but if he can keep hitting at an acceptable clip, he could potentially give you 15 homers, which is like getting 35 out of a first baseman. Keep in mind that Bogaerts is still 22, an age at which many professional ballplayers are still toiling in the minors. With his knee issue (which looked fine in the MRI taken today), you could snag him for a song if he's owned. If he isn't already owned, why are you still reading this?? Go pick him up!!
Sell Em If You Got Em - Jose Iglesias, SS, Detroit Tigers
You could probably slot a few Tigers in here and have it make perfect sense. Of all the Motown boys that are due for regression, though, no candidate stands out more than the 25 year old middle infielder. Iglesias missed the entire 2014 season with a stress fracture in both shins, but in 109 games with both Boston and Detroit in 2013, he hit .303 (likely fueled by a .356 BABIP). He got on base at a rate of .349, but a slugging percentage of .386 is worrisome, even from a shortstop. Iglesias draws very few walks, although to his credit, his strikeout rate is relatively low. While he probably won't hurt you in any way, it's doubtful that he'll help significantly. If he's on your roster, you'll want to get anything you can for him.
Hurlers In The Stream - Wily Peralta, SP, Milwaukee Brewers
This one might not be such an easy pickup, as Peralta is owned by 63 percent of Yahoo teams, but considering some of the other names going today, he's still the best streaming option whether or not he's a streaming option. Peralta threw 7 strong innings against the red-hot Rockies in his last start, although he recorded only two outs via strikes. He'll be facing another tough lineup today in the Cardinals, but there's plenty of reason to believe he can work effectively against the division rival. The 25 year old typically induces more grounders than fly balls, something that'll definitely help him out against the slap-hitting Cards, and he's using his changeup more frequently to twist batters up. Only make this move if you're feeling brave, but remember that your other streaming options today include Edinson Volquez and Tim Lincecum, so you can do a lot worse than Peralta.
This Hurts Me More Than It Hurts You - Jose Fernandez, SP, Miami Marlins
If you're a clever fantasy player (and I like to think I am), you know how to properly utilize the DL slots you're allotted. No, you don't use them to give injured players a rest. What are you, nuts?? You have DL slots so you can roster an impact player with a long-term injury, obviously! Enter Fernandez. I don't need to tell you how good this kid is, but I will remind everybody that before the 2013 season (wherein he won Rookie of the Year in a landslide and finished in third for Cy Young voting), the 22 year old had never pitched above Single-A. Jose's fastball is disgusting, his curve should be illegal, and his slider glides like a stitched-up bird. Once he comes back from Tommy John surgery in late June or so, would you bet against him returning to that insanely strong form? I know I wouldn't.
Tuesday, April 14, 2015
TBF's Fantastically Kontrived Fantasy Korner - April 14th
And here we are for day two of the Fantastically Kontrived Fantasy Korner!! Are you already demolishing your league thanks to my immaculate advice? No?? Typical. Here's some more crappy help!
Buy Buy Buy - Jason Grilli, RP, Atlanta Braves
When the Braves traded Craig Kimbrel hours before the first pitch of the 2015 season was thrown, it sent shockwaves throughout the game. Aside from making the Padres a legitimate contender rather than an erstwhile one, it opened up the possibility that Grilli, recently of the Pirates and Angels, and Jim Johnson, a former Oriole, Athletic and Tiger, would be closing out games in Atlanta. That's a harrowing scenario, considering Johnson's spectacular implosion last season and Grilli's own mini-meltdown in Pittsburgh. Even though the signing of both pitchers was much maligned (especially by yours truly), both guys have looked great in the first few games, Grilli in particular. Jason has 4 saves on the young season, has only allowed 1 run in his first 4 innings, and is currently sporting a 7:2 K:BB ratio. While it's inevitable that he'll eventually fall back to earth (as will his bullpen brother), the 38 year old could easily harness the control that made him an All-Star just two years ago.
Sell Em If You Got Em - Salvador Perez, C, Kansas City Royals
This one hurts. I drafted Perez as my main backstop this season in the 9th round, after 3 years of trying (and failing) to acquire him in a trade, and he has torn starters up lately to the tune of an absurd .414/.433/.759 triple slash line. He's hit 3 homers, scored 7 runs, and knocked 9 runs through the undefeated (!!) Royals' first 7 games. This would all portend well for Salvy this year, but keep in mind that he is a catcher, and not of the Piazza variety. Perez is sporting a .350 BABIP, much higher than his career mark of .302. As that normalizes, his batting average should dip back down into the .280 range. In addition, his wRC+ has decreased each of the last 2 years, starting at 114 in 2012 before dropping to 106 in 2013 and 92 last season, which is a fairly upsetting trend. I hate to say it, since I've spent that same amount of time pining after him, but if someone gives you a palatable offer for Perez, you kinda have to take it. Sorry, Sal :(
Hurlers In The Stream - Kendall Graveman, SP, Oakland Athletics
The linchpin of the deal that sent MVP candidate Josh Donaldson to the Great White North, Graveman was highly touted in the Blue Jays' system before arriving in Oakland with Brett Lawrie et. al. Admittedly, the 24 year old didn't look so great in his first A's start, yielding 7 earned runs (8 total) to the shambling Rangers, including 2 homers and 2 hit-by-pitches. Still, the rookie not only has a fantastic cutter to complement his fastball, but he will be facing an Astros lineup that's currently sporting a .195 team batting average, tied with the Angels for the worst in the AL. Their 61 strikeouts trail only the Pirates for the most in baseball. Evan Gattis and Chris Carter, two righty sluggers who are known for their tendency to hit long homers if they hit at all, should be neutralized by the same-handedness, another point in Graveman's favor. Rookies are a crapshoot, but for a streamer, you could do a whole lot worse than whoever's facing Houston.
Minor League Korner - Joey Gallo, 3B, Texas Rangers organization
It's not uncommon for a fantasy league to have minor leaguers under team control in some fashion: maybe you drafted Kris Bryant with your 12th round pick, or you took a flyer on Noah Syndegaard with one of your final selections. In our league, we do a MiLB draft immediately following our MLB one, wherein each team picks 3 minor league guys. This year, my last pick in that draft netted me Gallo, a prospect with light tower power. Across Single- and Double-A last season, Joey hit 42 homers, nothing out of the ordinary for a 20 year old who has seared through the minor leagues like a hot knife through butter. He has the misfortune of being blocked in Texas by a future Hall of Famer in Adrian Beltre, but come 2017, look for Gallo to be manning the hot corner in a park that's extremely conducive to his homer-happy approach.
Buy Buy Buy - Jason Grilli, RP, Atlanta Braves
When the Braves traded Craig Kimbrel hours before the first pitch of the 2015 season was thrown, it sent shockwaves throughout the game. Aside from making the Padres a legitimate contender rather than an erstwhile one, it opened up the possibility that Grilli, recently of the Pirates and Angels, and Jim Johnson, a former Oriole, Athletic and Tiger, would be closing out games in Atlanta. That's a harrowing scenario, considering Johnson's spectacular implosion last season and Grilli's own mini-meltdown in Pittsburgh. Even though the signing of both pitchers was much maligned (especially by yours truly), both guys have looked great in the first few games, Grilli in particular. Jason has 4 saves on the young season, has only allowed 1 run in his first 4 innings, and is currently sporting a 7:2 K:BB ratio. While it's inevitable that he'll eventually fall back to earth (as will his bullpen brother), the 38 year old could easily harness the control that made him an All-Star just two years ago.
Sell Em If You Got Em - Salvador Perez, C, Kansas City Royals
This one hurts. I drafted Perez as my main backstop this season in the 9th round, after 3 years of trying (and failing) to acquire him in a trade, and he has torn starters up lately to the tune of an absurd .414/.433/.759 triple slash line. He's hit 3 homers, scored 7 runs, and knocked 9 runs through the undefeated (!!) Royals' first 7 games. This would all portend well for Salvy this year, but keep in mind that he is a catcher, and not of the Piazza variety. Perez is sporting a .350 BABIP, much higher than his career mark of .302. As that normalizes, his batting average should dip back down into the .280 range. In addition, his wRC+ has decreased each of the last 2 years, starting at 114 in 2012 before dropping to 106 in 2013 and 92 last season, which is a fairly upsetting trend. I hate to say it, since I've spent that same amount of time pining after him, but if someone gives you a palatable offer for Perez, you kinda have to take it. Sorry, Sal :(
Hurlers In The Stream - Kendall Graveman, SP, Oakland Athletics
The linchpin of the deal that sent MVP candidate Josh Donaldson to the Great White North, Graveman was highly touted in the Blue Jays' system before arriving in Oakland with Brett Lawrie et. al. Admittedly, the 24 year old didn't look so great in his first A's start, yielding 7 earned runs (8 total) to the shambling Rangers, including 2 homers and 2 hit-by-pitches. Still, the rookie not only has a fantastic cutter to complement his fastball, but he will be facing an Astros lineup that's currently sporting a .195 team batting average, tied with the Angels for the worst in the AL. Their 61 strikeouts trail only the Pirates for the most in baseball. Evan Gattis and Chris Carter, two righty sluggers who are known for their tendency to hit long homers if they hit at all, should be neutralized by the same-handedness, another point in Graveman's favor. Rookies are a crapshoot, but for a streamer, you could do a whole lot worse than whoever's facing Houston.
Minor League Korner - Joey Gallo, 3B, Texas Rangers organization
It's not uncommon for a fantasy league to have minor leaguers under team control in some fashion: maybe you drafted Kris Bryant with your 12th round pick, or you took a flyer on Noah Syndegaard with one of your final selections. In our league, we do a MiLB draft immediately following our MLB one, wherein each team picks 3 minor league guys. This year, my last pick in that draft netted me Gallo, a prospect with light tower power. Across Single- and Double-A last season, Joey hit 42 homers, nothing out of the ordinary for a 20 year old who has seared through the minor leagues like a hot knife through butter. He has the misfortune of being blocked in Texas by a future Hall of Famer in Adrian Beltre, but come 2017, look for Gallo to be manning the hot corner in a park that's extremely conducive to his homer-happy approach.
Monday, April 13, 2015
TBF's Fantastically Kontrived Fantasy Korner - April 13th
Welcome to a brand new series on TBF (one that will likely be abandoned after a few days, just like all the rest), the Fantastically Kontrived Fantasy Korner!! When it comes to fantasy baseball, there are few guarantees for success. Players get hurt, go through slumps, start going by the name Melvin, etc. How do you combat the maladies and malaise? By turning to self-proclaimed "experts" for "good" advice, obviously. If that's what you're here for, then sorry, you've probably come to the wrong place. But stick around! You might learn something, even if that something is that I have no idea what I'm talking about.
Before we begin, I feel it's important to lay out the parameters of my fantasy league. See, every league in fantasy baseball is unique: like snowflakes, no two are the same. Even though that's a bold faced lie, there is some truth in it, as there are rotisserie, head-to-head and points leagues. Moreover, there are plenty of categories to mix and match, giving you the ability to make your league as unique as you please. I play in a 10-team, head-to-head dynasty keeper league that's 10x10: on the offensive side, runs/hits/homers/RBI/stolen bases/total bases/BA/OPS/cycles/slams; defensive side, wins/complete games/shutouts/strikeouts/ERA/WHIP/K/9/no-hitters/quality starts/saves+holds. A lot of these categories are unconventional, I know. I haven't seen any other league that factors in cycles, grand slams, no-hitters and saves+holds (as a single category, at least). But when you're a humongous stathead, as most of the owners in my league are, you get a little wacky. We're in our fourth season now, and I am the reigning third-place team, so you can trust that my "successes" in this game founded entirely on random chance are hard-earned.
So, without any further ado, let's start getting you on track to maybe do marginally better in your league!
Buy Buy Buy - Nolan Arenado, 3B, Colorado Rockies
Listen, if you don't know who this kid is, kindly remove your head from your behind and pay attention. Arenado is a defensive wizard, but more importantly, he's got a hot bat well-suited for the hot corner. I've personally been high on the 24 year old slugger since taking a flyer on him in the 18th round of last year's draft, before he delivered a triple slash line of .287/.328/.500 with 18 homers in 111 games. Small sample size alert, but through the first 6 games of the season, he's hitting .375/.423/.792. He won't help you out in steals, with 2 per season in 2013 and 2014, and if you play in an OBP league, his low walk rate will irritate you immensely. But the potential for 25 homers is there, and playing half of his games in the thin air of Coors Field makes that an inevitability more than a possibility. In addition, he's already hit 4 doubles on the young season, putting him on pace to...probably hit around 40 or so, don't get too excited. There isn't much reason to root for the Rockies these days, but if you must take a chance on a Colorado player, eschew Cargo and pass on Tulo - Arena-GO for Arenado. I'll see myself out.
Sell Em If You Got Em - Jake Arrieta, SP, Chicago Cubs
Some pitchers take longer than others to break out. Even then, only a handful of those are worth the wait. Arrieta finally put it all together in Chicago last season after several failed campaigns with Baltimore, but how long until the magic fades? The 29 year old posted a K/9 of more than a strikeout per inning (9.6, to be exact), but only in a career-high 156 2/3 innings. If he's going to be the number 2 guy in a Cubs rotation playing for the postseason, 200 strong frames (or at least 30 starts, since he topped out at 25 last year) is a necessity. He looked quite sharp against an intimidating Cardinals lineup, going 7 strong innings with as many strikeouts, but the 3 walks he allowed is nothing special (in fact, it's roughly in line with the 3.6 walks per 9 he's posted in his short career). There's no telling how long this will last, so if you're looking to really maximize Jake's value, let him play elsewhere.
Hurlers In The Stream - Wei-Yin Chen, SP, Baltimore Orioles
For all the good work Chen has done with the O's over the last 3 seasons, he never seems to get as much recognition (or, perhaps, the ADP) that he is honestly due. Chen pitched to a 3.54 ERA (3.89 FIP) last season, making 31 starts and recording 185 2/3 innings across them. He's never been a big strikeout guy, with a career 6.9 K/9 mark, so don't expect a lot of help there. But he keeps the ball on the ground fairly well, and in just one start this season (an unimpressive 4 1/3 innings against the Rays wherein he allowed 3 runs), he's mixed in his changeup and curveball more frequently, two pitches that get him out of trouble when his middling fastball is as advertised. He'll be going up against a Yankees squad that mostly looked lost in the first week of the season, and being a lefthander will certainly help him out against a heavily left-handed lineup. Additionally, the Orioles have had the Yanks' number over the past few seasons, so Chen is about as close to a sure thing as you can get in this game. For today, at least; let's not get too crazy here.
Sleeping To Success - Joey Votto, 1B, Cincinnati Reds
It almost feels blasphemous to consider Votto a fantasy sleeper, but you can't ignore the fact that the former MVP followed up a typically strong 2013 with a comparatively weak 2014, missing 100 games and seeing his OBP dip under .400 for the first time since 2008. His home run totals have jumped all over the place: after launching 66 long balls from 2010-11, he managed just 44 between 2012-14 (and just 6 in his shortened 2014 season). At 31, there is no certainty that he'll regain the entirety of that power, but he should still have enough left in the tank to rediscover his swing. As long as he's healthy, Votto could quietly put up another stellar season.
TBF's Current Standing - I am currently in 5th place out of 10, in spite of winning my first matchup against our league's commissioner (I'm the co-commish, naturally). Even though we're a H2H league, our standings go by the scores of the matchups rather than actual wins and losses. Therefore, the 4 guys ahead of me all won their matchups with higher scores than the one with which I won mine. But I'm feeling really good about the construction of my team, and beating Shane (main-commish) is especially sweet due to the insane amount of trash talk he spews. I'll be sure to keep you ravenous fans updated every Monday on where I stand.