Sunday, January 18, 2015

A 9-Inning Race Against Time.

All my life, I've heard people complain about how slow baseball games are. "They take too long!" is the common refrain, although when asked to expand on that sentiment, it's mostly a lot of blustering and repetition of the phrase "It's boring to sit through an entire baseball game", which I suppose is true, if you have the attention span and cultural tastes of a chimpanzee in a diaper. But even I can admit that games are getting pretty lengthy. When an at-bat of 5 pitches takes twice as many minutes to end, there's a problem. Pitchers come off the bump halfway through their windup multiple times before ever delivering to the plate. Hitters step out and stare at their bats for 30 seconds at a time to "throw off [the pitcher's] rhythm," which seems counterintuitive when hurlers keep resetting on their own. And if there's a runner on base, especially first? Get ready for a half-inning with as much thrilling action as having Pride and Prejudice read to you by a bored septuagenarian.

In that vein, a pitch clock (or at least the implementation of one in Double-A and Triple-A beginning next season) makes a ton of sense. Limiting the amount of time players have to futz around between pitches should go a long way towards shaving minutes off of games instead of slowly adding them on. The clock would only go up to 20 seconds if someone(s) was on base, and would give the pitcher 12 seconds if the bags are empty, which is still a reasonable amount of time to throw a baseball, as long as you are not Jon Lester. Here's how the average length of a MLB game has steadily increased over the years, via Grant Brisbee of SBNation:

Average Time of Game
1950: 2:21
1960: 2:38
1970: 2:34
1980: 2:38
1990: 2:51
2000: 3:01
2014: 3:08

Over the past 6-plus decades, baseball games have gotten, on average, 47 minutes longer, or roughly the same amount of time it takes Prince Fielder to send a Golden Corral into bankruptcy. This belies all the games completed in a timely fashion, but also neutralizes those knockdown slugfests of the Steroid Era. You'll notice, in fact, that the second biggest jump comes between 1980 and 1990, right around the time Jose Canseco was slinking around clubhouse bathrooms with dripping syringes and that "I WILL STEAL YOUR SOUL AND CREDIBILITY" smile on his face.

Does this image make your skin curdle? If you answered yes, you might have a deep-seated fear of change.
MLB, perpetually a lock to drag their feet when there's a pressing matter at hand, had a departure from the norm and put together a pace of game committee back in September of last year, in the hopes of finding a resolution that would sit well with players, executives, and fans alike. At the time, it just looked like Bud Selig's death rattle, the last Hail Mary on a long list of attempts to restore his own tarnished reputation. However, it seems that, with the testing of pitch clocks, they may be the rare baseball collective that actually affects positive change in the game. That makes sense when you consider who the group is comprised of: commissioner-elect Rob Manfred (who can use this to earn a gold star early on in his tenure as Supreme Ruler of Base Ball), MLBPA director Tony Clark, executive VP of baseball operations and Hall of Fame manager Joe Torre, Red Sox co-owner Tom Werner, Red Sox partner Michael Gordon, Mets general manager Sandy Alderson, and Braves president John Schuerholz, the committee's chairman. These are all men who stand to benefit greatly from drawing in more casual fans, which is always of concern to an organization worth more than $9 billion.

Therein lies the true purpose of shortening games: to get Joe Schmo to switch the channel to a baseball game instead of football/basketball/hockey/soccer/curling/bowling/competitive needlepointing. Hardcore fans (including yours truly) will sit through anything resembling a baseball game purely on merit of it being played. We're a given, a constant. It's those people in flux, those people who are never sure how to answer the question "Which sport is your favorite?" that MLB is targeting with this move. If the creation and institutionalization of a pitch clock converts just one group of affluent human beings with as much money as time on their hands into fans of the hometown nine, it will have done its job exactly. Another benefit to be reaped here is that it has yet to face massive backlash from those through-thick-and-thin supporters of the national pastime. This is not the confusing decision to have the result of the All-Star Game determine which league has home field advantage in the World Series, nor is it the befuddling addition of a second Wild Card team in both leagues. It's a smart change that necessitates more smart change, which is precisely the kind of impetus baseball needs to keep the charge going against obsoletion.

To be fair, there are those who are not as enamored with this idea as I am. Some people, like Sportsnet.ca's Jeff Blair, are vehemently against the idea of tampering with the game in this manner. It plays well to the purists, bashing this advancement and writing it off as MLB kowtowing to perceived pressure to speed things up.  Blair calls it a "sop to the attention deficit generation", but that seems petty and reductive. I can't imagine that older fans, who currently make up a staggering majority (the most fans aged 55 or older of any sport that isn't golf) of baseball's fanbase, love the idea of spending so many hours watching Clay Buchholz readjust his cup 6 times between pitches. Are you telling me that parents who bring their young children to games aren't just as interested in a quick match as their unruly progeny? Plus, if MLB is indeed making a concentrated effort to draw in younger fans, or lure some people away from watching the NFL or NBA, why would that be a bad thing? There's no question that this endeavor already has its weak points, and more will probably be brought to light whenever it's up for adoption by the big leagues. But I don't see how that justifies doing nothing to abate those increasing game times.

What would a pitch clock look like, exactly? One was used during this year's Arizona Fall League, but keep in mind that this is/was in the early stages of the plan:


It's different, sure, but not invasive. You're aware that it's there, but it isn't all-encompassing. With any luck, you won't even see it on TV broadcasts (more likely, the networks will add their own, presumably next to the count). If you're at a game, you'll probably be more occupied with the action than the clock tracking it. It's not directly in the pitcher's line of vision, so any distractions they may claim it brings would be a result of their own susceptibility to lose focus. Hell, if it's really that big of a deal to have it on the field, put it on those multi-million dollar video boards. Remove one graphic of Benny the Bat crushing Barry the Ball or whatever and slap a big 12 or 20 on there as necessary. There are compromises that can be made at all junctures without diluting the benefits it brings.

Are pitch clocks vital to baseball's continuing success? Highly doubtful. Will they make everybody happy? About as likely as Josh Hamilton converting to Islam. Is this a good decision? Without question. Just because the game has thrived for 150 years without things like a pitch clock, video replay, or a comprehensive Hall of Fame voting structure doesn't mean that these processes can't improve both the quality and marketability of the sport. Embrace the chaos, folks.

Thursday, January 1, 2015

Welcome To Atlanta, Where The Players Play (Poorly).

It's never easy watching a team that you root for undergo a rebuild. Players you've come to know and love are unceremoniously booted out of town, via free agency or trades. Managers and coaches that once brought success to the organization are shown the door, often after being turned into scapegoats for the failures of the team. Going to the stadium even becomes less enthralling, as you know the product you see on the field won't measure up to previous incarnations, desperately bumbling in cleats too big to fill. The one hope that remains is the promise of better days to come, although even that is hardly guaranteed. Such is the cycle of life in baseball.

While some teams freely admit when they're tearing it all down to build it back up, there are some that prefer to operate under the rebuilding mindset without using that dreaded word. One such team this offseason is the Atlanta Braves, who kicked things off after a disappointing 2014 by firing general manager Frank Wren and going with a GM-by-committee, with former Indians and Rangers GM John Hart taking charge and grooming longtime Braves assistant GM John Coppolella to eventually take the job, likely around 2017 when Sun Trust Park opens.

Somehow, after leading the team to a 79-83 record one year after winning the NL East title, manager Fredi Gonzalez is still employed by the team. Managers are often the first ones given a pink slip after a mediocre season, so Gonzalez should be thanking his lucky stars (or Liberty Media) that he still has a job. Third base coach Doug Dascenzo, hitting coach Greg Walker, and assistant hitting coach Scott Fletcher, however, were not as lucky. Dascenzo and Fletcher were let go, while Walker stepped down. Former Astros manager Bo Porter took the vacancy left by Dascenzo, while Kevin Seitzer and Jose Castro filled the roles previously held by Walker and Fletcher.

In addition to the facelift given to the coaching staff, several fan favorites are also no longer with the Bravos. Jason Heyward was traded to the Cardinals. Justin Upton was sent to the Padres. Kris Medlen was released and scooped up by the Royals. Brandon Beachy was also released, and there have been no indications that he'll resign. Ervin Santana was extended the qualifying offer after his make-good season here, and should command a contract larger than the team can afford. Hell, even Dan Uggla managed to latch on with the Giants midseason, and recently signed a minor league deal with the Nationals. Uggly still loves the NL East, even if it no longer loves him back.

So what will the 2015 Atlanta Braves look like? Let's take a gander, although I must warn the faint of heart that what you may see (hint: the starting right fielder's name rhymes with Sick Tarkakis) is potentially disturbing:


FIRST BASE - Freddie Freeman, starter; Joey Terdoslavich
Unless you are actually Joey Terdoslavich, chances are good you've never heard of him. He's had all of 89 major league at-bats across the last 2 seasons, appearing in 64 games total. With a career triple slash line of .225/.320/.292, he is the definition of replacement level. Therefore, this is the last you'll hear about him in this post, as we focus instead on the guy who he would be replacing. Freeman is one of the few consistent offensive producers Atlanta has had since Chipper Jones retired. Since becoming a regular in 2011, he's never played in fewer than 147 games (starting in every single one last season), has appeared in the All-Star game twice, and has hit .287/.368/.466, good for a 129 OPS+ (a stat that measures a player's OPS-related value above replacement, where 100 is average; therefore, Freeman has been 29 percent above league average in that span). He's averaged 21 home runs and 89 RBI over the course of those 4 years. The power may be lacking ever so slightly, but he's young enough and has an expertly timed swing, so it's not unreasonable to expect him to hit 30 or more homers at one point or another. He even plays marginally above average defense at a position known almost entirely for slugging. He'll play nearly all of 2015 at age 25, meaning we haven't even seen Freeman in his prime yet, and is under contract through 2021. As much value as he might provide to the team as a trade chip, it's nothing compared to the value he provides to them on the field. Thankfully, at least as of now, Freddie ain't going anywhere.


SECOND BASE - Alberto Callaspo, starter; Phil Gosselin, Tyler Pastornicky
I had to get up and walk away from my computer after typing the phrase "Alberto Callaspo, starter". I just did it again. Don't feel bad if you don't know who he is. I'd venture a guess that you've only heard his name escape your lips following a certain four-letter word, and that's only if he's been on a team you root for. He has over 100 innings at both corner infield spots, and over 4500 innings at shortstop to go along with the 2400 innings he has at second. At first and third, he grades out fairly well defensively. At shortstop, even better. At second, he is nothing short of atrocious. He has a -28 DRS (Defensive Runs Saved), which means that he's cost his teams a net total of 28 runs in his career, and his UZR (Ultimate Zone Rating) stands at -9, a far cry from the 11 DRS and 7.5 UZR he's posted at short. The Braves already have a stellar defensive shortstop (who we'll discuss momentarily), so Callaspo will be manning second base. The awful defense might be palatable if he supplemented it with a strong bat. He does not. His triple slash line from 2009 on, the seasons in which he's appeared in more than 75 games, is .267/.331/.376. This isn't terrible, but it does nothing to excuse the liability of having him at the keystone. Gosselin and Pastornicky might see some starts, or at least replace Callaspo in the later innings of a game, but as he's a switch hitter, he doesn't necessarily need to be platooned. He just needs an extra arm, or an extra leg, or a glove with webbing large enough to cover the mound.


SHORTSTOP - Andrelton Simmons, starter; Pastornicky
In stark contrast to his new double play partner, Simmons' defense is by far the greatest aspect of his game. Since his debut in 2012, Simmons has saved 88 runs, an absolutely astounding total. For a frame of reference, that's including 19 runs in only 49 games in 2012. Brendan Ryan was the only shortstop who ranked higher, with 27 runs saved in 141 games. In 2013, Pedro Florimon and Elvis Andrus were second and third behind Simmons, with 12 and 11 runs saved respectively. No other shortstop saved more than 8 runs. Simmons saved 41. We're not talking about a good fielder, or even a great fielder. We're talking about the next coming of Ozzie Smith, with a little power. Andrelton has yet to crack a .250 batting average, a .700 OPS or 20 homers, but he's still serviceable at the plate, and when you can defend like him, you'll be in the lineup regardless of how infrequently you make meaningful contact. He's played in more than 145 games the last two seasons, his first two as a regular. Until he gives some indication of slowing down, or his prowess shows any sign of diminishing, the Braves are content to not fix something that isn't all that broken. As a result, the only contingency plan if Simmons gets hurt is to slot Pastornicky in, although something tells me that Callaspo might actually be the first backup shortstop, with Pastornicky instead taking over second. That would be the smart way to handle things, at least.


THIRD BASE - Chris Johnson, starter; Gosselin, Pastornicky
Johnson is probably best known for being the forgotten man in the first Upton trade, coming to the team from Arizona. Admittedly, he did fairly well in his first season in Atlanta, hitting .321 for the second best average in the National League (fifth highest in baseball) with 12 homers and 165 hits in 142 games while providing predictably shoddy defense at the hot corner. However, his hitting stats took a significant dip in 153 games last season, batting just .263 and seeing his OPS drop from .816 in 2013 to .653 last year. It's not hard to guess why the new front office has been trying desperately to get him out of town, and the opportunity to ship him to San Diego (again with J-Up) would have made some sense on both sides, since the Padres don't currently have a third baseman, but even they didn't bite. When the Padres pass on any major league-caliber player, I assume those guys have to take a long, hard look at themselves to figure out where it all went wrong. The Braves did receive Dustin Peterson in the Upton trade, who could slot in as the third baseman at some point in the future. However, Peterson is still only 20 and has yet to play above Single-A, where his numbers have been solid for someone his age. As Pastornicky is more apt to spell the middle infielders, Gosselin is likely the first man off the bench if Johnson goes down. Considering how little value CJ provides, that might not be the worst thing in the world.


CATCHER - Christian Bethancourt, starter; A.J. Pierzynski, Evan Gattis
Long gone are the days of Brian McCann, and if Gattis is still on the team come Opening Day, he'll be covering left field (more on that in a bit), so the starting catcher's job is Bethancourt's to lose. This appears to be a tremendous sign of faith, as the 23 year old has all of 32 games above Triple-A to his name so far. He's typically devoid of power, only hitting double digit homers once (in Double-A, no less), and providing a complete dearth of extra base hits. However, like his teammate at short, his defense is simply superb. He graded out quite well at every minor league level he played in, and was just slightly below average in a small sample size of 260 innings with the big league club last year, committing just 3 errors and only costing the team 1 run defensively. Bethancourt, on the whole, is something of an enigma. He could become a fairly strong catcher, a high commodity in the game, but until he actually plays a full season, we really have no idea what he'll be. Sensing that he might not be ready to handle an entire season behind the dish just yet, the front office signed longtime backstop and salty instigator A.J. Pierzynski to a one-year pact to not only mentor the young catcher but presumably spell him from time to time. Pierzynski is certainly no slouch when it comes to hitting, crushing 11 or more long balls in 9 different seasons, including 27 in his last season with the White Sox back in 2012. His defense, though, is about as shaky as Callaspo's, so it would not behoove Gonzalez to give AJ many starts unless absolutely necessary.


LEFT FIELD - Evan Gattis, starter; Zoilo Almonte, Terdoslavich
Hey, look! Joey T-Bags shows up again! We're not discussing him any further, though, as I'm a man of my word. Gattis earned the starting catcher job in McCann's injury-riddled absence back in 2013, and started the 2014 season there after B-Mac bolted for the Yankees. El Oso Blanco has been one of the Braves' top offensive performers over the last two years, blasting 43 homers in just 213 games and a 125 OPS+ last season. His relatively low RBI totals are more indicative of the team around him not being on base for many of those homers than his inability to knock in runs. And, assuming he's not dealt before the 2015 season begins (as it stands now, he's the only remaining positional trade chip with a lot of value on a team that's clearly throwing in the towel), he'll slide out from behind the plate and be the starting left fielder. This is not as good of a scenario as it might seem: once you look past Gattis' impressive hitting stats, his defense leaves a whole lot to be desired. He's only cost the team one run behind the plate (3 runs saved in 2013 followed by 4 runs lost in 2014), but in 342 1/3 innings in left last season, he recorded a whopping -10 DRS, and UZR was also unkind at -24.1. Even if you don't care for sabermetrics, watching him flail around in left during the 2013 playoffs should have been all the evidence you need that Gattis doesn't belong in a position where good defense is preferred. If he is dealt, though, Almonte should be moderately acceptable in the yard.


CENTER FIELD - B.J. Upton, starter; Almonte, Terdoslavich
Please keep in mind that the term "starter" is used very loosely here. B.J. shouldn't even be coming off the bench at this point, much less starting. A five-tool phenom early in his career, it appears that somebody raided the shed shortly before Upton signed the largest contract the Braves have ever given to a free agent ($75.25 million for 5 long, long years). Gone are the days of him hitting for average (he rarely cracked .250 with the Rays, but staying above the Mendoza line appears to be nearly impossible now), hitting for power (a combined 21 homers over the last 2 years, or 7 fewer than he hit in his last season in Tampa), running (after 5 straight years of 30+ stolen bags, he stole 12 in 2013 and 20 in 2014), and throwing/fielding effectively (never a great defender, his play in center has only become more detrimental). It'd be nice if he started next season on a different team, or if the Braves signed a center fielder between now and Opening Day (Georgia native Colby Rasmus is still available), but chances are slim that either will come to pass. In short, Upton is no longer a viable option to start for a Major League Baseball team. The question is, can he rebound to the point that he MIGHT be a useful piece off the bench? The answer looks more and more like "No way, B.J." with each passing game. Stranger things have happened, sure, and Upton could always rise back to prominence with 20 homers or 30 stolen bases. Babe Ruth could also come back to life and lead the Cubs to 10 straight World Series titles. Which one do you think will happen first?


RIGHT FIELD - Nick Markakis, starter; Almonte, Terdoslavich
Ugh. Is there any way Hank Aaron could be swayed to come out of retirement? Markakis, a longtime Oriole, signed a 4 year, $44 million contract with the Braves a day or two before it was announced that he required surgery to repair a herniated disc, something both Baltimore and Atlanta knew before and at the time. He's not expected to miss any time during the season, and should be ready to go about halfway through Spring Training. Still, knowing they needed a right fielder AND being fully aware of Markakis' ailment, why in the hell did the Braves sign him?! Nori Aoki, a close comp to Markakis, was eminently available at the time. Alex Rios signed with Aoki's old team in Kansas City on a one-year deal that would have still been affordable for Atlanta. So why Markakis??? Unfortunately, dear reader, I don't have an answer to that question, or at least an answer that makes sense in this plane of existence. Maybe there's a parallel universe where Markakis is a powerhouse offensively and not a negative defensively. But we don't live in that universe. We live in a universe where Markakis is a good contact hitter (a career .290 average) and little else. Factor in his age, 31, and it's irrational to expect an improvement, much less sustained production for very long. Boy, Joey T-Bags may get more love next year than I anticipated! OK, last time he's mentioned. I promise. Kinda.


STARTING ROTATION - Julio Teheran, Shelby Miller, Mike Minor, Alex Wood, David Hale
Finally, we get to the team's greatest strength: the pitching. Teheran had a breakout year, making 33 starts for the first time in his promising young career and throwing 221 innings. He was good for a 2.89 ERA, although FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching, which factors in the outcomes involving only the pitcher and the batter, those being strikeouts, walks and homers) had him pegged a bit higher at 3.42, indicating a little luck. He notched 186 strikeouts, good for a 7.57 K/9, and even threw 4 complete games, 2 of which were shutouts. I think we can safely predict that he'll be starting on Opening Day. Miller was the main piece in the Heyward trade, and should have more of a chance to blossom into the effective hurler everybody in St. Louis thought he was (except the Cardinals' front office, apparently). He's outperformed himself over the last 2 seasons, with his FIP being over half a run higher than his actual ERA both years, but he's done a pretty solid job of leaving opposing batters on base when they get on, and showed significant strikeout potential in the minors, so there's reason to believe he can regain his form with an organization known for revitalizing pitching careers. Aside from 2013, Minor has been the weakest link in an otherwise durable rotational chain. Outside of that aforementioned 2013 season, he hasn't posted an ERA lower than 4.12, nor has he thrown more than 180 innings. It might be easier to stomach his poor mound presence if he could throw strikeouts with aplomb, a la the current incarnation of Tim Lincecum, but he can't even do that. He's the number 3 guy as of now, but I wouldn't be shocked if Wood leapfrogs him sometime during Spring Training. Wood, for his part, could be a younger version of Medlen, as he's shown he can be successful in the starting five or in the bullpen. With the departure of Santana, Wood should have ample opportunity to start, and he'll likely continue to be great on the bump. He's been stellar at preventing balls from leaving the park, with a 0.35 HR/9 in 2013 and a 0.84 in almost 95 more innings last season. Hale is something of an unknown, as he's only started 8 games in his short MLB career, and his 4.53 K/9 in 87 1/3 innings last year is extremely disheartening. FIP also disagrees with him, as his 3.30 ERA translated into a 4.31 mark. There's still plenty of offseason left, and if the Braves are smart (most fans seem to think they are), they'll sign someone for depth like they did with Aaron Harang and Gavin Floyd last winter. Both of them managed to put up good numbers, so maybe there's still some magic left in that old Turner Field.


BULLPEN - Craig Kimbrel, closer; David Carpenter, Luis Avilan, James Russell, Arodys Vizcaino, Jason Grilli, Jim Johnson
The last name on that list should give Braves fans the most pause of any other bullpen arm. Johnson is famous for leading baseball in saves for the Orioles in both 2012 and 2013, then imploding spectacularly after an offseason trade brought him to the Athletics. He was released early in the season, signed a minor league pact with the Tigers, then proceeded to be similarly terrible there. Somehow, the Braves saw some appeal in watching him do the same here next season, but not being in the closer's role should hopefully help him regain some efficacy. Grilli had a 3 season stretch for the Pirates wherein he was a lights-out setup man with a K/9 over 10 from 2011-2013, and over 13 the last 2 years. Then, something happened (most likely age catching up with him, as he recently turned 38) and while he still threw a lot of strikeouts in not too many innings, his ERA ballooned last season between Pittsburgh and Anaheim, where he was traded midseason. FIP has pegged him lower than his ERA the last 3 years, though, so with some good defense behind him, he might rebound. Vizcaino returns to the organization he was part of from 2010-12 before being traded to the Cubs for Paul Maholm and Reed Johnson at the 2012 deadline. He was brought back in exchange for Tommy La Stella a couple of weeks after the World Series ended, and despite being so well traveled, he'll play all of next year at age 24. He's struggled in very limited action (17 1/3 innings with the Bravos in 2011, 5 with the Cubbies last year), and his minor league numbers are nothing special. Combined with his high walk rate, it doesn't seem likely he'll add much value. Russell is another Cubs transplant, joining the team at this year's deadline with Emilio Bonifacio. What is it about marginal pitchers and utility guys in Chicago that the Braves front office loves so much? He did record the lowest ERA of his career between the two last year, although that was on the back of an extremely low opposing hitters' BABIP (Batting Average on Balls In Play, or how well a hitter is at turning swings into hits) at .244, well below his career mark of .278. Avilan, the only reliever so far who has spent more than a few months with the team, is probably best suited for mop-up duty in blowouts than anything else. He throws an alarmingly low number of strikeouts for a reliever, walks far too many hitters per 9 innings, and doesn't do a good job of preventing batters from reaching base. Carpenter will take the role of setup man vacated by Jordan Walden, who went to the Cardinals with Heyward. He's done very well over the last 2 seasons, recording high K/9 figures while keeping the ball in the yard. He's only 29, still young for a reliever, so he should be an important cog in the bullpen for years to come. Kimbrel is the best closer in baseball. If you've watched a single game he's appeared in since coming up in 2011, you'll understand why I don't have to explain that. Like Gattis, he's a player with monumental talent on what projects to be a bad team, so many are anticipating that he'll also be shipped out of town for a solid package. Until then, Atlanta can enjoy having the best post-Mariano Rivera closer in the game.

To summarize: The Braves have a great rotation with a couple of small question marks, a bullpen that will likely dominate opposing hitters, a first baseman and left fielder with light-tower power, a shortstop and catcher who are defensive wizards, and piles of flaming garbage at every other position. If the NL East was as imbalanced as it's been the past few years, this Atlanta team could have a fair shot at making the playoffs in 2015. However, the Mets and Marlins should be markedly improved from last year, the Nationals still have one of the best overall rosters in baseball, and if the Phillies trade Cole Hamels for the kind of return they're expecting, they could rise from the cellar quicker than we think. All we know for sure is that it's going to be a rough time in Turner Field's golden years, and all we can hope for is the team to at least stay competitive, and not play like turd...oslavich (that's the last one).