Wednesday, May 8, 2013

The Cost Of Doing Business, As It Relates To A Game.

Months ago, I wrote a post extolling the virtues of a salary cap, and the benefits that it would bring. Apparently, the front offices of most MLB teams do NOT religiously follow this blog (go figure), and we've seen several massive contract extensions between the last pitch of the 2012 World Series and the first pitch of Opening Night a little over a month ago. While it's easy for fans to initially get excited when one of their favorite players gets a guarantee to stay in that city for years to come, down the line these extensions are bound to become financial and psychological burdens on the franchises responsible for them. Let's take a look at some of the more notable contracts signed by superstars since November:


Buster Posey - Easily the most recognizable member of baseball's most underrated team, the former Rookie of the Year and reigning MVP has been a true wunderkind since his callup early in 2010. In both seasons that Posey has been healthy and behind the plate, he's won an award for his performance and, not coincidentally, the Giants have won a World Series in both years. His impressive game-calling abilities are matched by the pop in his bat (he won the batting title with a .336 average last year). Locking the 26 year old up with a 8-year, $159 million deal on top of the 1-year, $8 million contract they agreed upon in Buster's first arbitration go-through, the Giants have ensured that the baby-faced catcher will be a part of their team for the next decade. There was some hesitation in giving a mega deal like this to a backstop, as they are easily the most injury-prone players in today's game (see: Joe Mauer, whose 8-year, $184 million contract signed after the 2010 season is still the largest ever for a catcher in terms of money, and his value and durability have dropped significantly since then), but Posey has the build and the versatility to eventually move to third or first base as the years go by. This has the potential to be the rare, giant contract that actually pays dividends throughout its entirety.
OVERALL TERMS OF THE DEAL: 9 years, $167 million; $22 million club option for 2022.


Justin Verlander - This came as a shock to most fans, as Verlander made it clear earlier in the offseason that his impending free agency (after the 2014 season) was something he was strongly looking forward to, and with good reason: had he hit the free market, there's a great chance Verlander could have become the sport's first $200 million pitcher. However, the Tigers front office has shown a willingness to spend on their players, so they locked up Justin for the cool sum of $180 million while tacking on 5 extra years to the 2 Verlander already had left in Motown. What makes this deal notable is the option for 2020 that could push the overall value of the deal to $202 million. While Verlander is far and away one of the best pitchers on the planet (he throws 92 MPH in the first inning, 97 in the sixth, and 100 in the ninth), and his stats are otherworldly (an ERA of 2.52 since 2010, an average K/9 of 8.44, and the staggering ability to induce ground balls seemingly at will), a power pitcher of this variety rarely holds up well over the course of a decade. Especially one that signs a contract extension that begins when the pitcher is older than 30 (Justin will be 32 on Opening Day 2015). Will Verlander still be able to bring the insane heat when he's 37? It's hard to say. But this deal could come back to haunt Detroit, especially if it brings a few more World Series implosions.
OVERALL TERMS OF THE DEAL: 7 years, $180 million; $22 million vesting option for 2020.


Elvis Andrus - One of two young, dynamic shortstops in the Texas Rangers organization has just, seemingly, blocked the way to the majors for the other. Andrus was mentioned frequently in trade rumors this offseason, with Jurickson Profar waiting in the wings and their double play partner, Ian Kinsler, quietly refusing a move to first so Profar could start the season with the big club. However, instead of moving Elvis, the Rangers inked him to a 8-year, $120 million extension that will theoretically push Kinsler to first and Profar to second, or Kinsler nowhere and Profar out of town (smart money's on the former). While he's devoid of the power now symbolic of shortstops, Andrus's defensive capabilities and blinding speed on the basepaths make him an extremely valuable commodity in a Rangers lineup that sorely needs some versatility. Andrus is still just 24, and can apparently opt out of the contract following the 2018 season when his value might be even higher than it is right now. If he stays, though, he could be an integral part of an eventual world champion Rangers team. The question is if his speed will hold up throughout the entirety of the deal, as that is his most redeeming quality as a ballplayer. If Kinsler finally accepts a move to first, with Profar at second, Adrian Beltre at third and Andrus entrenched at shortstop, Texas will again be a force to be reckoned with.
OVERALL TERMS OF THE DEAL: 10 years, $132 million; opt-out clause after 2018 season.


Felix Hernandez - There's not a whole lot to like about the Mariners lately. They've done well in the draft, but most of their stud prospects (Taijuan Walker, Danny Hultzen, James Paxton and Mike Zunino) seem a little ways off from reaching the big leagues, and the current roster, an odd mix of underachieving youngsters (including Dustin Ackley, Justin Smoak, and Jesus Montero) and lackluster veterans (such as Kendrys Morales, Michael Morse and Raul Ibanez), leaves so much to be desired when it comes to creating runs. Thankfully, they've got a pitcher who specializes in shutting down opponents' offenses in Felix Hernandez, and thanks to this extension, the whispers of trade rumors should finally be (mostly) extinguished. The 2010 Cy Young winner signed what was then the largest contract for a pitcher in history (yet again, damn you, Verlander), completely justifiable by his age (a 26 year old signing a 7-year extension is a FAR better idea than signing a 32 year old to a contract of the same length) and his peripherals (his K/9 has been above 8 every season since 2008, and he hasn't posted an ERA over 3.50 since 2007). All this, and he could still feasibly find a lucrative multi-year deal when he eventually does reach free agency. If the M's offense can start clicking behind King Felix, they might just have a contender in Seattle again.
OVERALL TERMS OF THE DEAL: 7 years, $175 million; 8th year at $1 million could trigger if Hernandez's elbow gets injured during the course of the contract.


Adam Wainwright - It's not often that a pitcher undergoes Tommy John surgery in Spring Training, cheers his team on as they win a World Series in improbable fashion, then pitches so spectacularly that they receive a very generous extension, but Adam Wainwright has never been considered a bad pitcher to gamble on. This became evident earlier this year when, after posting a 14-13 record and a 3.94 ERA in a hair shy of 200 innings in 2012, the Cardinals awarded Wainwright with a contract that kept him from reaching free agency after this season. It may be a little garish to give an almost 32 year old hurler with a notable injury history such a deal, but Wainwright's track record when healthy certainly explains why the Cards' front office wanted to keep him in St. Louis: his career BABIP has only surpassed .300 twice since becoming a starter in 2007, his FIP was actually lower than his ERA last year (3.10, no easy feat), and he became an invaluable veteran presence following the disheartening news regarding teammate Chris Carpenter, whose career is in serious jeopardy after another shoulder surgery that will most likely keep him out all season and possibly beyond. With loads of tantalizing young pitching bubbling over from the minors, a solid Wainwright at the helm of the rotation for the next half-decade keeps the Cardinals squarely in contention.
OVERALL TERMS OF THE DEAL: 5 years, $97.5 million; full no-trade clause.


David Wright - David Wright has always had to cede the spotlight, in many ways. He's not the face of New York baseball, Derek Jeter was and is. He's never been the best third baseman in the NL East, Chipper Jones was and is. He hasn't even been the most popular player on his own team lately, R.A. Dickey was last year and John Buck is through this young season. But make no mistake, David Wright is a solid defender, an offensive force to be reckoned with, and vital to any future success the Mets hope to have. Therefore, they signed him to an extension to keep him in Queens until 2020, making him the highest paid player in the team's history. Never mind his exuberance and his ability to pump his teammates up, Wright is only 31, the captain of the Mets, and his career triple slash line (.301/.382/.507) could potentially put him into some esteemed company if he can raise those to a certain level; he would join Jones as the only third basemen in history with an overall .300/.400/.500 line. He already holds multiple Mets records, including most career hits (1,457), RBI (841), doubles (327) and total bases (2,455), and with this extension keeping him in town for another 7 seasons after this one, it's hard to imagine he won't hold every offensive record for the team when he hangs 'em up. Will he have a World Series ring to go with his numbers? Well, that's not really up to just him.
OVERALL TERMS OF THE DEAL: 8 years, $138 million; largest contract in franchise history.


Evan Longoria - Another third baseman signed an extension worth $100 million this offseason, but this one might not necessarily be as kind or fruitful. That's not to say that Evan Longoria hasn't been crucial to the Rays' recent success, or that he isn't now, or that he won't be. But there is a serious concern regarding whether he can stay healthy enough to help bring another World Series berth to Tampa. Longo has been a serious offensive producer in seasons when he's had 500 or more plate appearances, bopping no less than 22 homers in any of them and surpassing 100 RBI in 2 of them. He's even shown flashes of speed, stealing 15 bases in 20 tries in 2010. Defensively, he's been roughly as valuable, as he's never posted a fielding percentage lower than .937, although he does tend to make a few too many errors, making double digit errors every year since 2008 except last year, when he had 8 in only 74 games. Which leads us to the injuries. Evan has only played close to a full season twice, when he appeared in 157 games in 2009 and 151 in 2010, and missed over half of last season due to a torn hamstring in April. It seems odd to give a deal of this caliber to a talented but unstable third baseman already contracted through 2016, but the Rays are known for their shrewdness, and it's hard to bet against Longoria to keep shining.
OVERALL TERMS OF THE DEAL: 6 years, $100 million; only player under contract until 2023.

Monday, May 6, 2013

To Err Is Human, To Consistently Err Is Umpiring.

Look, we all understand that umpiring is a thankless job. No matter what call you make, you're going to piss off the majority of any team's fanbase at any given time. Even if you know the call you made is right, you'll be mercilessly second-guessed and vilified by players, managers, fans and writers. It's tough for anyone to admit when they're wrong, and the pressure to do so is multiplied exponentially when it comes to a close game. So, while umpires may be a little short-sighted, they've been a part of the sport for so long that it's hard to imagine the boys in blue no longer calling games behind the plate.

Now, with that in mind, here's why human umpiring is no longer the correct way to determine calls in baseball.

You knew this was going to be referenced, didn't you?
Perhaps the most infamous blown call in baseball history took place on June 2nd, 2010, during a game between the Detroit Tigers and the Cleveland Indians. Normally, a game between these two division rivals before the All-Star break wouldn't receive any more attention than it needed to. But this happened to be a game in which Armando Galarraga, a journeyman pitcher who'd managed to find a semi-permanent spot in the Tigers' rotation, was throwing a perfect game. By now, even the most casual baseball fan knows the story: with 2 outs in the bottom of the 9th, Galarraga (with the perfecto still very much intact) gets Jason Donald to hit a grounder towards first baseman Miguel Cabrera. Galarraga covers the bag, Miggy throws to him, and Donald is clearly out by a full step. The team and the fans begin to go crazy over this historic milestone...until first base umpire Jim Joyce calls Donald safe, leaving Galarraga with a stunned and disappointed smile on his face, the fans in the stands booing loudly, and Cabrera animatedly arguing that the call was blown. This story is mainly remembered now for the class with which both Galarraga and Joyce handled things: Joyce, upon being shown replay after the game (more on that later), tearfully admitted that he blew the call and "cost that kid a perfect game", Galarraga showed his respect when Joyce came to formally apologize, and it became a feel-good story for the ages. With one caveat: an appeal was made to Major League Baseball to overturn the call and credit Galarraga with the perfect game. Why wouldn't they? Joyce even admitted he made the wrong call; that alone should have sufficed. But Bud Selig, His Most Holy And Brilliant Commissioner, rejected the appeal. There was plenty of outrage, but the argument for instant replay being implemented across the game for such purposes gained serious traction.

Well, not really. It's almost 3 years to the day of the botched perfecto, and while replay has been instituted in some ways (reviewing whether a home run was fair or foul, which has actually been in place since the middle of the 2008 season), it's still leaps and bounds behind where it should be. With all the technology at our disposal, there is simply no excuse for baseball's continued ignorance and stubbornness to join the present. The problem, though, isn't that MLB isn't utilizing this technology; rather, that they're allowing these high and mighty umpires to continue making completely incorrect calls with no retribution. It's not so awful that a single person can't see every minute detail of a complex play, be it a stolen base, a questionable home run, or a botched defensive play. There are more umpires on the field in today's game (one behind home plate, one behind the pitcher, one on the first base foul line, and one on the third base foul line), and adding more would be invasive to the players in that they probably wouldn't be able to field properly. So it's not atrocious that there isn't ENOUGH umpiring. What is atrocious is that, when the wrong call is made, or that there's even a chance the call was wrong, baseball's higher ups act like it's damn near impossible to know for sure. This was true for most of baseball (and human) history, but it's not now. There are close to 100 cameras on any given major league field at any given time, pointed at any given spot, at any given angle. There are cameras overhead, in the stands, behind the fences, in the bullpen, even in the dugout. Any fan watching at home has the benefit of seeing any play slowed down several times, so even THEY can become proper armchair umpires (I have been guilty of this on many, many occasions). Hell, Joyce saw several videos of the call he missed in Galarraga's game (after the game, when it barely even mattered) and could see that he was wrong. Selig can talk endlessly (and often does) about the supposed cons of using instant replay, and he can act like they heavily outweight the pros, but if he truly believes in what he's saying, he may need to be institutionalized. So the technology's there. It's even being used in a lot of ways. But not in the most crucial way.

Does this look like a player who's lost his cool? Did this deserve an ejection?
Another problem with only going by what the umpire says is a deeply psychological one. In the past few years (ironically, almost immediately after this outpouring of good vibes from Galarraga's near-perfect game), we have seen a massive shift in the way umpires view the players, the game, and themselves. It seems like most umpires have developed God complexes in the wake of the "more instant replay" movement. Maybe they took it as a slight, which it most certainly was not. Human umpires are still completely necessary. Nobody wants to see a computer with a face guard behind the catcher, flashing STRIKE or BALL. That's what these multi-million dollar Jumbotrons in the outfield are for. We still need umpires to determine if a check swing went all the way through, or in some easier cases, if a player successfully stole a base. But whenever umpires are challenged, they've become much quicker to violence, losing their cool and ejecting managers and players with minimal provocation and even less justification. Just this season, we've witnessed Tampa Bay Rays starter David Price being thrown out of a game, as well as teammate Jeremy Hellickson who wasn't even playing that day, because home plate umpire Tom Hallion reportedly told Price to "throw the ball over the f**king plate" during a start against the White Sox a couple of days ago. Hallion later denied saying anything to incite Price and Hellickson, but was quoted as saying that Price's body language "insinuated that he was pissed off." So, let's get this straight: an umpire, who's supposed to be professional and subjective, is now allowed to argue with a pitcher, who might be understandably upset with the calls being made BUT ISN'T ACTUALLY DOING ANYTHING TO WARRANT AN EJECTION, apparently curse at said player (again, for THINKING the player MIGHT be upset), and then throw out not one, not two, but THREE players (Matt Moore, another teammate who wasn't pitching that day, was thrown out with Price and Hellickson) based on HIS transgressions. If any of this makes sense to you, please go to a therapist.

This is the real reason instant replay and other technological advances need to be implemented in baseball. Never mind the necessity of getting calls right, umpires have become all too human and are letting their emotions cloud their judgment. In an impartial game, they're becoming partial. But not to a certain team, or certain players, but rather to themselves. They're starting to believe that they are the end all authority on the field, maybe because they think implementing a service that will render them all but useless and defunct is too much of a threat for them to go out quietly. Nobody's saying human umpires need to be taken out completely, but their power needs to be restructured, and fast. And in that same vein, make instant replay an integral part of the national pastime. No more excuses need be made, and no more calls need be botched, just make this right so we can get back to enjoying the game again.