A Brief Exposition Of Random Musings Regarding The 2012-2013 Offseason (Part 1).

The Hot Stove is upon us, and it is already living up to its name. In the first installment of A Brief Exposition: Offseason Edition, we'll take a look at the first moves made this winter.

THINGS ARE LOOKING UPTON IN ATLANTA: The Braves pulled off a bit of a stunner this past Wednesday, signing free agent centerfielder B.J. Upton to a 5-year deal worth $75 million. Upton, who has played for the Rays for the first 6 years of his major league career, brings his lifetime stats of .255/118/447 to Turner Field, as the Braves look to sate a fanbase that's looking for some good news after the retirement of legendary third baseman Chipper Jones. He will join Jason Heyward in the outfield, and there is a slim possibility that the Bravos can pull off a stunner and resign Michael Bourn, which would allow them to move Martin Prado to third base full time now that Jones is gone. While Upton may not end up being the super impactful player the Braves are looking for, at the least he'll bring a good bit of power to a lineup that is desperate for some. While Dan Uggla and Brian McCann have the potential to hit 30 home runs in any given year, they're often injured and are streaky when healthy. Freddie Freeman and Heyward are already All-Stars, but they still can't lead a team like the Bravos need them to. And players like Prado and the young platoon of Tyler Pastornicky and Andrelton Simmons at shortstop don't  have the power or skill to be the face of a team at this point. So, more than anything, this was a move of necessity for the Braves, and it appears that Upton will add a lot to an already strong team.

A RAY GETS A RAISE: While the Rays may not have been willing to give Upton the money he was looking for, they decided that third baseman Evan Longoria was worth holding on to, and signed him to a 6 year, $100 million extension that starts at the end of his current deal, which runs through 2016, and will keep him in St. Petersburg until 2023, when Longoria will be almost 38. Although he is often injured as of recently, he is one of the top third basemen in today's game when healthy. The former Rookie of the Year consistently ranks near the top of the league in WAR and other sabermetrics, even if his basic stats leave a little to be desired. He cemented his place in Rays history with his energetic walk-off home run against the Yankees on the last day of the 2011 regular season to leapfrog the Red Sox and get into the playoffs, and if he can bring the Commissioner's Trophy to Tampa just once in the next decade, he'll be a beloved hero there for the remainder of that team's future (which, admittedly, may not be too long). All that's left for the Rays to decide on is whether to shell out the same kind of money Longoria received to hurlers like newly crowned Cy Young winner David Price and James Shields.

SPANNING ACROSS THE NATION'S CAPITAL: With the signing of Upton in Atlanta, it seemed extremely likely that the Nationals would sign Michael Bourn to man centerfield, as has been long speculated. However, in a bit of a shocker, the Nats acquired Denard Span from the Twins in exchange for minor league pitcher Alex Meyer. The move works out pretty well for both sides: the Nationals finally gained a full-time centerfielder without having to rotate Bryce Harper, Jayson Werth and Michael Morse every other game, and the Twins get a highly-touted pitching prospect that makes their bleak present somewhat more bearable when considering the future. This supposedly takes the Nats out of the running for outfielders like Bourn or Shane Victorino, two players that they were seriously considering to fill their revolving door in the middle of the outfield. Span will also bring a bit more pop and speed to a Washington lineup that's starting to fully grow into their power potential, and his career UZR of 24.9 will do wonders for the defense as well. The Nats fell short of making a deep playoff run this past season, but Span may be the first step in getting towards the Fall Classic.

ONCE MORE, FROM THE BEGINNING: Two parts of the already-revered Core Four will be rejoining the Yanks again in 2013, as Andy Pettitte and Mariano Rivera both signed 1-year deals to pitch for the Bronx in one more attempt to win their 6th World Series title in the past 20 years. After coming out of retirement which caused him to miss the entire 2011 season, Pettitte, 40, posted an impressive 2.87 ERA in the 12 starts he made, the second lowest of his career. However, he only notched 69 strikeouts in 75.1 innings, a career low, and missed significant time on both ends of the season, due to spending time on the disabled list near the end of the season. Rivera, 43, pitched in 9 games in 2012 and recorded 5 saves, but missed nearly the entire season after tearing his ACL shagging a ball hit in the outfield by Alex Rodriguez during batting practice in early May. The all-time leader in saves, Rivera has not posted an ERA higher than 2.20 since 2007, and is expected to bounce back nicely. While the Yankees desperately needed to get younger this offseason, their signings so far have been to bring back the older guys. Whether this will work better in 2013 than it did in 2012 remains to be seen.

Something About Birds Preying On Fish (Making Titles Is Difficult).

Just a few months ago, the Red Sox and Dodgers completed a trade that seemed unlikely to be topped, with Boston sending Adrian Gonzalez, Josh Beckett, Carl Crawford and Nick Punto to Los Angeles, who sent James Loney and a slew of prospects back to Beantown. Such a trade meant the Dodgers taking on nearly $250 million in future obligations, and gave the Sox an opportunity to rebuild after an extremely disappointing season. Trades of this caliber are uncommon, but just 3 months after this swap, the Blue Jays and Marlins made a deal that blew this exchange out of the water.

In short: the Marlins will send Jose Reyes, Josh Johnson, Mark Buehrle, Emilio Bonifacio, John Buck, and $8 million to Toronto, while the Blue Jays are sending Yunel Escobar, Jeff Mathis, and 5 prospects (Adeiny Hechavarria, Henderson Alvarez, Justin Nicolino, Jake Marisnick, and Anthony Desclafani, all of whom were ranked pretty highly in the Jays' farm system before joining that of the Marlins') down to Miami. It's something we've seen from the Marlins several times in their short history (they were created in 1993); the only difference this time is that it didn't follow a championship. The Fish won the World Series in 1997 and 2003, and both times the owner at the time (Wayne Huizenga after 1997, current owner Jeffrey Loria in 2003) shipped off many of the players that they knew they wouldn't be able to afford in the future. It appears that Loria is willing to do the same after a last place finish as well. On the flip side, Jays GM Alex Anthopoulos finally has some pieces in place that he's been itching to gain for a while. While the Jays do have the capacity for a high payroll, they're not typically a prime free-agent destination, so Anthopoulos normally scours the trade market, and found a happy partner in Loria and GM Mike Hill.

Just a few short weeks after a disappointing season, the Marlins are cleaning shop...again.

Immediately, the Jays are looking a whole lot better.  Are they a contender in baseball's most difficult division? That remains to be seen. Admittedly, they just gained one of the best shortstops in today's game, two top of the rotation starters, as well as another speedy outfielder and a passable backup catcher to young backstops J.P. Arencibia and Travis D'Arnaud. However, they also just got a shortstop who's missed significant time to hamstring injuries, two pitchers who have lost effectiveness steadily every year since 2010, an outfielder accustomed to playing in a platoon, and a catcher who didn't work out well in his first stint with Toronto a few years ago. So it's hard to crown them with the 2013 World Series title before we even hit New Year's, but it also turns the Blue Jays into an incredibly competitive team, if these pickups can not only stay healthy, but properly adjust to the hardest division in the game. A lineup that contains Reyes, Bonifacio, 2-time home run champ Jose Bautista, Edwin Encarnacion (who signed a new contract after a .280/42/110 campaign) and burgeoning Brett Lawrie, is a pretty intimidating and well-rounded lineup. In conjunction to the sluggers, Johnson and Buehrle will give a strikeout-induced boost that a rotation which saw their starters spend the most combined days on the DL of any team in 2012 desperately needs. Again, we don't want to jump to conclusions and say the Jays will bring the Commissioner's Trophy back over the border 20 years after they last did, but to think they haven't gotten infinitely better is simply untrue.

On the other hand (and about 1,500 miles south of Toronto), the Marlins have just hammered in the first nail in the coffin of baseball in South Florida. I strongly believe (as do several of my more famous colleagues) that, in 15 or 20 years, we'll look back at this as the beginning of the end of the Marlins (and the Rays, but that's a story for a different day). Loria has driven an irremovable wedge between the Marlins and the fans by shipping out literally all the players that either made a difference or would have if they had the opportunity to play out the remainder of their contracts. Look no further for a perfect example of the sentiments in South Florida than the one remaining Marlins star's Twitter: Giancarlo Stanton, the young slugging hope for the Fish, tweeted immediately after the announcement of the trade last Wednesday by saying "Alright, I'm pissed off!!! Plain & Simple". This is not the proper way to treat your players, but more importantly, this is not the proper way to treat your fans. Regardless of how Loria and team president David Samson try to spin this, they were fully aware of the response they would get once news broke of the trade. No free agents are going to be enticed to sign with a team that they know full well could flip them at any time, and would do so happily to free up resources to do the same thing several months later. Thankfully, the farm system is starting to look a little better, especially with the prospects that just came down from Toronto, so there will be some bright spots in the future for the team. Overall, though, this makes a strong case for the contraction of yet another team owned by Jeffrey Loria. A relocation for this team isn't entirely out of the picture, if MLB steps in and does the right thing (once again, looking at you, Buddy).

We can't forget the Melkman, who quietly signed with the Jays while approval of this deal was pending.

In the days between the announcement of the trade and the approval from the Most Honorable Commissioner, the Jays pulled off another trick that's a real gamble: signing fallen slugger Melky Cabrera to a 2-year, $16 million deal. We know now that the reigning All-Star Game MVP was taking performance-enhancing drugs, but even if he can't replicate his 2012 numbers, he'll at least be a palatable 4th outfielder and an off-the-bench force to be reckoned with.

So, the offseason has gotten off to a pretty quick start with this trade and signing. While the baseball world continues to reel from this mega-trade, we'll keep our ears to the ground to bring you analysis of the next big thing to happen in this wonderful game we love so dearly.

Cage Match: Cabrera vs. Trout 3 - The Aftermath.

Damn it all to hell. Anyone who thought this would be over once the AL MVP was officially announced, you clearly don't know baseball fans. All right, let's get this over with...again...

So, as we all know, the new AL MVP is Tigers third baseman Miguel Cabrera, who won 22 of 28 first place votes to beat out Angels centerfielder Mike Trout, who got the remaining 6. It's truly shocking that, considering the debate that's been raging since September, the voting wasn't closer. But, as has always been the case, you can't predict baseball. Even though hundreds of analysts and bloggers have made or have attempted to make a career out of doing so (hence what you're reading at this very moment). If we can't accurately predict it, though, we can sure put our two cents in once the results are announced. And in the interest of time (and my sanity), I'll keep this one short.

I won't throw any (or many) stats at you wonderful people in this final installment of CM:CvT. The stats are already in the first two posts, if you really need to go over them. The simple fact is that old-school thinking beat out new-school in 2012, over 150 years after the creation of the sport. That in itself is a clear statement on the game as it is played. This demonstrates that, above all else, stats like batting average and RBI are still respected enough that they're preferred units of measure when determining what a player is worth, as opposed to WAR, which actually determines what a player is worth. And a Triple Crown win is impressive, no matter how you may try to skew the usage of supposedly outdated stats. If these numbers were so outdated, wouldn't we have moved away from them? OPS+ and UZR aren't listed in the box score after every game, but runs scored and runs batted in still are. If they weren't important, or still an appropriate way to figure out how good or worthy a player is, they would have gone by the wayside like the spitball or the Expos. But they're still the most recognizable, most tangible thing to point toward when talking about position players.

This really better be the last time I have to talk about this. I can't write another word without clawing my eyes out.

Once again, we have to ask ourselves the most difficult question in baseball: what truly makes a player Most Valuable? It's easy to point to Cabrera's win as the final word that basic statistics win out in a debate, but you needn't go further back than 2010 to find that isn't always the case. Even though he had a 13-12 record on a Mariners team that lost 101 games, pitcher Felix Hernandez took home the Cy Young award because his peripheral stats, both basic and sabermetrical, blew everyone else out of the water. It appeared, for quite some time, that this year would see the same kind of thing happen, with Trout besting Cabrera. But does Trout's edge in the advanced metrics make him more valuable to the Angels than Cabrera's raw power made him to the Tigers? Does Cabrera's ability to smash a baseball into the stratosphere mean more than Trout's blinding speed on the basepaths? Is taking your team to the World Series and losing every single game better than missing the playoffs entirely? Does having one of the best hitters of this generation batting behind you (Albert Pujols for Trout in Anaheim, Prince Fielder for Cabrera in Detroit) make an impact on your value overall? It's hard to say. It's even harder to say that one of these two was better than the other, when in the minds of rational baseball fans everywhere (there have to be a few left in the world besides me, I desperately wished to myself), the vote could have gone either way and there would be plenty who cheered and plenty who grimaced.

Cabrera's .330/44/139 stat line in 2012 is certainly one for the ages, and his Triple Crown will look quite nice next to his new MVP award on the mantle I assume he has. Trout, for his part, had a historic season too, with his .326/30/83 giving him one of the best rookie campaigns in history, and his leading all of baseball with 49 stolen bases and 129 runs scored is nothing to stick your nose up at. He took home Rookie of the Year honors, and even though he lost this year, everyone expects him to remain in contention, with Cabrera, for MVP for years to come.

And, of course, congratulations are in order for all the other award winners this year:

NL Rookie of the Year - Bryce Harper, Washington Nationals.
AL Manager of the Year - Bob Melvin, Oakland Athletics.
NL Manager of the Year - Davey Johnson, Washington Nationals.
AL Cy Young - David Price, Tampa Bay Rays.
NL Cy Young - R.A. Dickey, New York Mets.
NL MVP - Buster Posey, San Francisco Giants.

Can we finally put this debate to bed? (The sound of a million baseball fans screaming "NO" before going back to punching each other in the face while wearing a Cabrera or Trout jersey is reverberating in my weary head right now)

We'll be back later in the week to analyze the pending blockbuster trade between the Marlins and the Blue Jays. Stay tuned.

Don't Show Me The Money.

Before I write a single word of this post, please refrain, at the end, from pointing out that I am a Yankees fan. We're all aware. I don't know how many times I have to say this, but I am a baseball fan first, and a Yankees fan second. Being a Yankees fan does not mean that I'm a fan of high contracts, as you'll soon find out.

All right. Let's do this.

Something has been bothering me for the past few years, and I finally have an acceptable outlet to vent my frustration, since multiple Little League parks have banned me after screaming nonstop about this to many an unfortunate 7-year-old:

THERE HAS TO BE A SALARY CAP IN MAJOR LEAGUE BASEBALL.

A long, long time ago, before teams like the Marlins and Diamondbacks existed, before steroids became the hot topic, even before Jamie Moyer started pitching (26 seasons and possibly counting), free agency was just a twinkle in Andy Messersmith's wistful eye. Players spent most of their careers with one team, unless that organization felt it was in their best interest to trade that player. Sure, they were paid well, but for the most part, contracts were reasonable. There were no bidding wars, no negotiations, no haggling for prospects. Hell, there wasn't even a draft back then. Just players being plucked off of high school fields, college diamonds and sandlots around the country (and a few from outside, but nothing like it is today), who would sign with the team that approached them with the best number. However, those numbers didn't reach the astronomical levels they have since a combination of Messersmith, Curt Flood, and Catfish Hunter introduced the concept of free agency in the baseball lexicon.

Since that pivotal moment in the history of the national pastime, contracts have gone through the roof. For God's sake, Alex Rodriguez signed two different contracts for over $250 million. TWO SEPARATE CONTRACTS WORTH A QUARTER OF A BILLION DOLLARS WERE SIGNED BY THE SAME MAN. That's obviously the most prominent example, but make no mistake, contracts all across the game have gotten completely out of hand. The minimum salary for a Major League Baseball player is $480,000, and that's normally reserved for bit players, bench riders and no-name relief pitchers. Comparatively, the President of the United States makes $400,000. One swings a piece of wood to hit a ball. The other is the leader of the free world. See the problem?

If you got over half a billion dollars just to play baseball, you'd be excited too.

We're not even through the worst part of it yet. With television deals, a 162-game season with potential playoff games, and more merchandising than you could even think of, teams are pulling down more and more money, which gives them ample resources to sign someone like Manny Ramirez to an 8-year contract worth $160 million (Red Sox in 2000), or Derek Jeter to a 10-year, $189 million one (Yankees in the same year). Not that these players aren't great. In fact, most huge contracts are signed by players that are considered to be legendary, even in their playing days. But that doesn't excuse the fact that teams like the Cubs or the Twins, both of whom are going through some real rough seasons lately, can sign players like Alfonso Soriano (8 years, $136 million that runs until 2014, the most expensive contract in Cubs history) and Joe Mauer (8 years, $184 million that runs until 2018, highest contract ever for a catcher) to eye-popping deals that the teams know will eventually come back to haunt them. And yet, it continues to happen, and will continue until something is done about it. Men like Ruth ($910,000), Gehrig ($360,000) and Johnson ($195,000) played without ever topping a million dollars in their career, let alone in a single season. Furthermore, legendary players like Mays ($1,858,000), Aaron ($1,565,000) and Mantle ($1,010,000) never dreamed of reaching the financial figures that players like Colby Rasmus ($2,700,000 just in 2012 to hit .223 and score as many runs as RBI with 75, his career high) and Chris Young ($7,000,000 this season to play in 101 games and do little of worth in the games he didn't miss) make today as somewhat passable players. Hell, Jackie Robinson, whose sheer presence in the major leagues made hundreds of blacks, Hispanics and Asians even eligible to enjoy today's major bucks, never approached even a fraction of the kind of money players like Andrew McCutchen and Adam Jones will make over the next several year, and their production, while of an All-Star caliber, will never touch that of the man who made their careers possible. Nothing sounds right about that to me.

On the other hand, in regards to teams with the financial means to throw money at players like Pedro Martinez throws punches at senior citizens, teams like the Rays ($65 million in 2012) and the Athletics ($50 million) have managed to use the draft, international signings and bargain free agents to field somewhat competitive teams over the past decade. So it's not like the financial structure of a team is indicative of their talent and caliber on the diamond. But to say that a team can become a contender without buying a superstar is simply ignorant. And small market teams, such as the ones listed above, and others like the Royals and Padres, both of whom are in the bottom 5 in payroll but boast extremely strong farm systems, often develop and cultivate stars that, eventually and unfortunately, leave them for the promise of more money than they could ever hope to spend from a team like the Phillies ($174 million, 2nd in 2012) and the Tigers ($120 million). So, any players that hit the big time often make or break a team, financially and emotionally (in some cases).

If the allure of insane amounts of money really wasn't a problem, this man would still be in St. Louis with the team that drafted him.

So how do we fix this? How does baseball recover from monstrous salaries? Well, it will take a lot, but it can be done. The first step, and this is the most crucial one, is that players have to agree to take less money, not just in the interest of the team (less money to one player allows a team more flexibility to buy other good players if necessary), but in the interest of the fans that they entertain. Will this happen on its own? Probably not. Excuse me, definitely not. Which leads us to the second step: the salary cap. If a ceiling is put on both how much money a player can earn per year or per contract, and on how much a team can spend on outgoing or incoming free agents, then the problem of outrageous contracts goes away pretty quickly. For instance, there have been reports that the Orioles and Brewers, both of whom are relatively small market teams, have interest in signing Josh Hamilton this offseason. For his part, Hamilton has already stated that he's looking for a 7-year contract worth $175 million. Believe it or not, that's not completely unreasonable. Now, if there were a salary cap for teams of $100 million, or for free agents to not make more than $10 million a year, you could see Hamilton patrolling left field in Baltimore or Milwaukee for the better part of the next decade. Under the current circumstances, though, this could almost never happen.

I'm not saying you have to handcuff teams and players. While it's true that the Hall of Famers from seasons past made much less money for what we still view as superior production, there will come a time in the not-too-distant future that humans, by natural or artificial means, will become more physically capable to crush those tiny spheres with bats that will look like toothpicks in comparison to their arms, or to throw said spheres at a speed previously incomprehensible to our current state of mind. Naturally, as the game becomes more difficult to play at a high level, the pay increase should jump accordingly. The issue remains, though, that the lack of a salary cap still cripples the concept of parity. In all honesty, no salary cap doesn't just cripple parity, it brutally beats it, nurses it back to health, then cruelly slaughters it in a fashion not unlike the last 20 years of whatever it is the Pirates consider to be "playing baseball." Parity cannot truly exist if 10 out of 30 teams have a capital that far outgrosses the combined GDP of many of the South American countries that produce the players who become a part of the vicious circle. And it starts and ends with those teams.

As much love and respect as I have for the man, George Steinbrenner may have been one of the worst things to ever happen to baseball, simply because he was willing to spend however much money it took to get players like Reggie Jackson and Dave Winfield, a trend that should have died out with him, but instead became even more commonplace. Even more to blame is that despicable excuse for a human shell, Scott Boras. Because of him, dozens of players throughout the years, whether he's represented them in the big leagues or "advised" them in high school/college have held out for higher and higher signing bonuses/contracts/merchandising rights/what have you. Has anyone ever heard of Darren Dreifort? No, nobody has. He was a player that Boras negotiated quite a deal for after he was drafted second overall in 1993: 5 years, $55 million to pitch for the Los Angeles Dodgers. And how did he do? From 2001 to 2005, he pitched 86 games, 26 as a starter like he originally was, a total of 205 2/3 innings (which Justin Verlander normally reaches 3 weeks into any given season), and missed the entire 2002 season, finally retiring after the deal expired. And yet, players continue to sign with Boras (yet another fantastic example of how greedy athletes have become), and teams continue to dread negotiating with him. Understandably so, of course. I would hate to sit at a table facing someone who's spent years playing for me and has given as much back to me as I have given to him, and have to listen to a slimeball like Boras explain to me that I should dig deep into my pockets and find $375 million lying around to pay a 31-year-old right fielder for the next 15 years, at which point he'll be limping around the bases after a slow roller back to the pitcher. No, I certainly do not envy a general manager or owner in that respect.

BUT THIS CAN BE DONE. AND IT SHOULD BE. IT MUST BE. I'M BEGGING YOU, OH POWERFUL SELIG, HEAR MY PLEA!

A salary cap requires players, managers, GMs, owners and agents alike to ignore their massive sense of greed and entitlement, and get back to brass tacks: playing the game for the love of the game, and for the fans that fund these ludicrous contracts in the first place. It can't possibly be that hard to do; men did it for centuries before free agency, for much lower salaries in a more difficult playing environment than that of today. It'll take a major renaissance of the baseball spirit, but if it can be enforced consistently and swiftly, this sport can return to what made it the national pastime in the first place.

TBF's Postseason Predictions Extravaganza - Round 3.

In the third and final edition of our Postseason Predictions Extravaganza series, we're going to take a look at the top 11 free agents (not 10, because that's how we do things around here) and try to determine where they could end up before the 2013 season gets underway.

1. Josh Hamilton - By far the main attraction in this year's free agent class, Hamilton presents an interesting dilemma to any team looking to sign him. He's only 31, has won an ALCS MVP and regular season MVP in the past 3 years, he's taken the Rangers to their first two World Series in franchise history, he had a 4-homer game earlier this year and is by far one of the purest hitters in today's game. However, he's often injured, he tends to fade down the stretch (.304 average in the first half compared to .259 in the second half of 2012), and there's the ever-looming shadow that drug and alcohol addiction has cast over his career, let alone his life. He's looking for a 5 to 6-year contract, one that would cover the remaining years of his prime and just a little more, something that his stats alone would absolutely merit. Hell, it certainly couldn't hurt giving Hamilton that many years; if Albert Pujols and Alex Rodriguez can get 10-year deals at 32, why not give Hamilton 5 at 31? All eyes are turned to Arlington, where the Rangers are expected to give Josh a contract offer that will supposedly kick off the bidding war. They know him best, so whatever they offer will be a good indication of what other teams should expect to spend on him. TBF'S PREDICTION: RANGERS.

2. Zack Greinke - Before Cole Hamels signed his extension in the middle of this past season, the 29 year old Greinke was considered to be the second best pitcher available in this year's crop of free agent hurlers. He proved himself in the National League, going 25-9 with a 3.63 ERA and 323 strikeouts over the past year and a half with the Brewers, and his track record in the American League also speaks for itself, as he won the 2009 Cy Young while with the Royals. He gave the Angels a needed boost after being traded midseason, going 6-2 for the Halos while recording the lowest WHIP (1.19) of his career since his award-winning season. Greinke can easily fit into any team's rotation, but he's expected to pass on many big-market teams, due to his social anxiety disorder. However, he continues to make it clear that he wants to play on a contender, so teams like the Dodgers, Red Sox, Yankees and Phillies will almost definitely make him an offer he may not be able to refuse. TBF'S PREDICTION: DODGERS.

3. Mike Napoli - Aside from A.J. Pierzynski, Napoli is the most prolific free agent catcher this season. Ever since he joined the Rangers following a round of trades that sent him from the Angels to the Blue Jays, then almost immediately to Texas, Napoli has established himself as a power-hitting catcher, a rare commodity in today's game. He's also shown versatility, playing a few games at first base and showing prowess at being a designated hitter. His defensive capabilities behind the plate leaves a lot to be desired, but he's short and stocky, just the right build for a backstop. While the Rangers would be better off resigning him, he seems likely to ask for more money than they'll be willing to give. The Braves might seem like a good fit, if they decide Brian McCann is no longer the future of their franchise. Either Los Angeles team would be happy to have him (Anaheim would just be happy to have him back after seeing how he destroyed their pitching since he left). As always, you can't count out the Yankees, who didn't extend a qualifying offer to Russell Martin and may instead go after Napoli or Pierzynski in an attempt to boost the lineup. TBF'S PREDICTION: YANKEES.

4. Michael Bourn - The first of three center fielders that are sure to catch the attention of plenty of teams, Bourn is viewed as a valuable asset as a speedster that could slot in nicely atop most lineups. He's incredibly speedy, having stolen 64 bases since being traded from the Astros to the Braves in July 2011. His OBP constantly hovers around .350, and while his slugging isn't high, he's not expected to hit for power, just to set the table for big boppers behind him. His defense in center is Gold Glove-caliber (in fact, he was nominated for the award this year before losing to Andrew McCutchen), which makes him that much more valuable. A Scott Boras client (my keyboard became white hot when I typed his name), Bourn will probably have to ask for more than he's worth, but a team will be willing to pay for that kind of production no matter what. Rumors about him signing with the Nationals have been swirling since before this year's trade deadline, but plenty of teams, including the Phillies, Brewers, and Mariners, could check in on Bourn. Still, he'll most likely stay in the NL East, and not with the Phils. If he doesn't sign with the Nationals, he'll probably be back in Atlanta. TBF'S PREDICTION: NATIONALS.

5. B.J. Upton - The second center fielder on our list, Upton's stock isn't nearly as high as his younger brother's. Justin is 25, still under team control and is just a year removed from placing 4th in MVP voting. B.J. is 28, a free agent and hasn't done much since 2008 in the way of offense. With B.J., you can expect to get 20-30 home runs, 20-40 stolen bases, and 60-85 runs scored. However, you can also expect high strikeout numbers (he hasn't whiffed less than 160 times since 2009) with a low OBP and OPS. Then there's his defense to consider: his fielding percentage than .992 in 2011, he had 92 fewer outputs this year (290) than the year before (382), and he has only posted a positive dWAR (or defensive WAR) in his career, and never higher than 0.3. The main reason teams will be interested is because of the upside both he and his brother have always been known for. Justin showed it last year, and B.J. has sporadically shown flashes of it, but until they can fully harness their talents and put them to good use, they'll be middle-of-the-pack defenders and slightly above average producers. The Rays don't have the kind of money to take that chance, so expect another team to sign Upton. TBF'S PREDICTION: PHILLIES.

6. Shane Victorino - To round out the three center fielders, we picked the Flyin' Hawaiian, who actually spent the last half of this past season patrolling left instead of center. 2012 saw him post the lowest batting average (.255) of his career, but the 31 year old still projects as a top defender and base-stealing threat due to his running abilities. The two teams most likely to make a push for Victorino are the two he split time between in 2012, the Phillies and Dodgers. He played for the Phils from 2004 until this past July, when they traded him to Los Angeles during the Dodgers' shopping spree. The Phillies might make a little more sense, as the Dodgers have their outfield set for nearly the rest of the decade between Matt Kemp, Andre Ethier, and Carl Crawford, but they haven't counted themselves out with Victorino. His longtime rival Braves might surprise everyone by making him an offer, and the Rangers may check in on him as a possible, affordable replacement should they fail to resign Hamilton. However, one would guess that if the Phillies don't sign Upton or even Bourn, they'll do anything they can to have Victorino return. TBF'S PREDICTION: BRAVES.

7. Melky Cabrera - A fall from grace isn't expected to hurt Cabrera's free agent chances much, but teams will certainly think twice before negotiating with the outfielder. He had a .346 average, which led the National League, and he even won All-Star Game MVP honors that would eventually help his Giants team win their second championship title in 3 years. Unfortunately, due to his failed drug test and resulting 50-game suspension, he was unable to revel in the glory with his teammates. Still, he showed promise beyond what PEDs could do for him, and the 28 year old outfielder has experience at every non-infield position, versatility that plenty of teams will jump at the chance to have. He may not be the consistent producer with a little pop, but his presence off the bench might make the difference to someone. A reunion with the Giants isn't out of the question, as the team might look to replace Angel Pagan, and all the other teams he's spent time with (the Royals, Braves and Yankees) may speak with him, if not offer him a deal. TBF'S PREDICTION: GIANTS.

8. Edwin Jackson - Entering free agency for the second time in the past calendar year, Jackson projects to be a hot commodity in a thin starter market. He signed a one-year pact with Washington after winning the World Series with the Cardinals, and while his basic stats (10-11 record with a 4.03 ERA and 168 strikeouts) don't paint the prettiest picture, the sabermetrics show that Jackson is a solid number 2 or 3 starter, and would help shore up any rotation, if not make it a little scarier. Plus, he's still 29, and it would appear that his best years are still ahead of him. He threw a no-hitter against the Rays while with the Diamondbacks in 2010, and some of his lowest ERAs have come in years that he's pitched in the AL. However, he's spent the majority of his career in the NL, and that's where he'll most likely stay. A multi-year deal isn't out of the question, wherever he signs, but the dollars he wants and the dollars teams will offer may not easily match up. The Nationals could look to resign him, and the Pirates, Yankees and Astros could all be interested in his services. TBF'S PREDICTION: PIRATES.

9. Kyle Lohse - Another free agent pitcher that will benefit from many top-of-the-line starters not being in the same year as him, Lohse could be in line for a big payday. He went 16-6 for the Cardinals this year while pitching to a 2.86 ERA, the lowest of his career and 5th in the NL. At 34, a deal past 4 years wouldn't be smart for most teams, as pitchers tend to see their effectiveness nosedive much quicker than batters do, but Lohse could probably find a team that would love to give him 5 years. The Cardinals would do well to resign him, and keep him in a rotation as a number 3 starter behind Adam Wainwright and Chris Carpenter, but he could find opportunities as a number 2 on other teams, and maybe as a number 1 for a team like the Twins, who he played for a few years ago and who need more reliable, but affordable, starting pitching. A reunion between the two seems most likely. TBF'S PREDICTION: TWINS.

10. Rafael Soriano - Opting out of his contract, like many expected him to do, puts Soriano in a very good position, especially in a year where the reliever free agent class is relatively weak. He converted 42 saves out of 46 opportunities in his first year as the closer for the Yankees, a position nobody other than Mariano Rivera has regularly occupied since the 1990s. Filling in for the greatest closer in history would make anybody tremble, but Soriano handled it expertly. Seeing as Rivera, also a free agent, has explicitly stated that he wants to come back to the Yankees, and Soriano now re-establishing himself as a closer rather than a set up man, Rafael is expected to seek a long-term deal to pitch the 9th inning, rather than go back to pitching the 7th or 8th. At 32, this might be his last chance to do so. The White Sox and Astros both don't have a true shutdown closer, and the Red Sox may also find themselves in play. He'll most likely be too expensive to return to the Rays, whom he played with in 2010, but the Marlins may make a surprise push to sign him. TBF'S PREDICTIONS: WHITE SOX.

11. Torii Hunter - Hunter is a special case in this year's free agents position players. He hit .313 at age 37 (the highest batting average of his long career), with 16 long balls and 92 RBI. He became a friend and mentor to this year's hottest thing in baseball, Mike Trout, and even ceded his natural position of center field to the young phenom. He's actually been more valuable in right field than in center since 2009, posting a positive dWAR in right field this year, with the highest zone rating (12. 326) of his career. While he has stated multiple times that he'd like to finish his career with the Angels, and he still has the desire to win a World Series with him, there are a few teams that are chomping at the bit to sign him to a short-term deal, which just makes sense for someone his age. The Rangers may speak with him just to drive up the price if the Angels do decide to keep him, but the smart money is on him staying in Anaheim. TBF'S PREDICTION: ANGELS.

TBF's Postseason Predictions Extravaganza - Round 2.

The 2012 season is over. Thank God. Now there's nothing standing in the way of offseason trades, signings and awards! Because Angels, Marlins, Dodgers, Phillies, Red Sox and Yankees fans know all too well that a World Series championship is actually determined not by the last two teams standing in the playoffs, but by who signs the most players to the biggest contracts before Spring Training. Anyway, in this edition of Postseason Predictions Extravaganza, we're going to take a crack at guessing who will win what awards before they are announced in the coming weeks, in the order they will be awarded.

AL Rookie of the Year: Mike Trout, CF, Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim.
This might be the most uncontested RotY ever. Yu Darvish made a strong case to win with the Rangers in his first season on this side of the Pacific, garnering an All-Star appearance and starting the play-in Wild Card game for Texas (which, admittedly, he lost). Will Middlebrooks gave the Red Sox hope for their season early on before he went onto the DL and missed the rest of what could have been a solid rookie year. And Yoenis Cespedes was one of the top offensive and defensive performers on an A's team that surprised the baseball world (more on that later). But none of them did what Trout did this year. In fact, no rookie in history did what Trout did this year. He posted a 10.7 WAR, 2.5 higher than Robinson Cano of the Yankees and 3.5 higher than Buster Posey, who won that category in the National League. He became the first rookie in history to record a 30-30 season (30 home runs and 30 stolen bases). In fact, he led the AL and all of baseball with 49 stolen bases, meaning he almost became the third member of the 30-50 in history, and again, no rookie has ever come close. He batted in 83 runs, scored 129 on his own (best in the AL), had a .326 batting average (2nd behind Miguel Cabrera) and ranked in the top 3 in slugging and OPS, all this despite missing nearly the entire first month of the season (he played in 139 games). Whether he'll win the MVP award is not as certain (again, more on that in just a bit), but Trout will absolutely run away with the Rookie of the Year award, almost as fast as he runs from first to third. And that's pretty darn fast.

NL Rookie of the Year: Bryce Harper, CF, Washington Nationals.
Believe it or not, this one may not be as uncontested as Trout. There was Wade Miley of the Diamondbacks, Yasmani Grandal of the Padres and Andrelton Simmons of the Braves to consider. Miley anchored the D-backs rotation, leading the team in wins (16, tied with Yu Darvish in the AL for most wins by a rookie) and ERA (3.33). Grandal, along with first baseman Yonder Alonso, came over from the Reds in the Mat Latos trade, and both of them infused the Padres with a severely needed shot of youth and talent, giving San Diego fans hope for the future between the two of them and third baseman Chase Headley (side note: look for Headley to steal a few MVP votes this season). And Simmons projects to fill the starting shortstop role, something that's been a bit of a black hole since Yunel Escobar got traded to the Blue Jays a few seasons ago. But just as Trout had the best rookie season in the AL, so did Harper in the NL. Could it have been any other way? 22 home runs, 98 runs scored, 57 extra base hits, 254 total bases, and an .817 OPS. All of this before he turned 20 years old. And you guessed it: those are all either records for an NL rookie, or the best numbers a teenager has ever posted in Major League Baseball history. It's not every season that we see a rookie in both leagues post numbers that no kid ever has before, but this year was truly a special one in that regard. Not to mention that Harper helped bring postseason baseball back to Washington for the first time since the 1933 World Series. Yep, the kid is special, all right.

AL Manager of the Year: Bob Melvin, Oakland Athletics.
If you picked the Athletics to win the AL West this year, raise your hand. All right, now all of those who raised their hand, get out of here and stop lying. Nobody on earth would ever have guessed that a team whose most prolific free agent signing was a 26 year old Cuban defector who had never played a day of professional ball in his life (Cespedes), or that an outfield comprised mainly of Red Sox castoffs (Coco Crisp and Josh Reddick, along with ex-Rockie Seth Smith) would have put up offensive numbers better than their current counterparts in Boston. No one, not even those who live in Oakland, could have expected a rotation headed by 39 year old Bartolo Colon (who was suspended near the end of the season for a failed drug test) would end up ranking in the top 10 of all defensive stats, reaching as high as 5th in opponents' batting average. There isn't a person alive that would believe that a 34 year old Australian relief pitcher in Grant Balfour would become such a dominant closer. But for all of these facts and stats, most of which are hard to believe when considering the team they relate to, the A's didn't care. They were known as the team that didn't know they weren't supposed to be winning, but that's a copout. They sure knew it when Bob Geren was managing the team. For some reason, this team couldn't tap into its' immense potential until Melvin took the helm, and from the day he was hired, the A's surged to their first division crown since 2006. That's not coincidence. Melvin deserves credit for breathing new life into an Athletics team that looked dead.

NL Manager of the Year: Davey Johnson, Washington Nationals.
The Nationals lost 100 games in 2008 and 2009. Hard to believe now, right? After a year in which they had the best record in baseball and won their very first NL East crown, the Nats of the last 7 years since they moved from Montreal and ceased to be the Expos seem like a distant, happily-forgotten memory. And Johnson is directly responsible for turning this team of inexperienced rookies, listless veterans and offseason acquisitions into a dangerous contender, likely for years to come. He, along with GM Mike Rizzo, presided over the most controversial pitching decision in a long time when they announced before the season that Stephen Strasburg would be shut down in September and wouldn't pitch in the playoffs, considering that they didn't think they'd be competing this year. When it became clear that they would, Johnson stuck to his guns and didn't allow Strasburg to pitch, in the interest of nurturing his skills for the long-term instead of short-term playoff performances. He advocated bringing up Harper as the everyday center fielder when some felt Harper wasn't ready. Johnson has past experience with this, though: he saw Dwight Gooden as a valuable asset for the Mets in the 1980s when he called him up to the big leagues, and he promptly won Rookie of the Year in 1984 and a World Series in 1986, which Johnson led the Amazin's to. His vivacious spirit and vigor are still with him even at 69, and Johnson has brought this Nationals team to baseball's Promised Land. It's even likely that, whether he wins this year or not, 2012 won't be the last year he's in the running.

AL Cy Young: Justin Verlander, SP, Detroit Tigers.
I'm sorry, David Price. And I'm sorry, Jered Weaver. But it's Justin Verlander...again. Price led the league in wins (20) and ERA (2.56). Weaver threw a no-hitter and also won 20. But the league leader in WAR, strikeouts, innings pitched and WHIP? Take a wild guess. A 7.5 WAR, 239 strikeouts, 238.1 innings (the second season in a row in which he average roughly a strikeout an inning, no small feat considering how much he throws and how often) and a 1.06 WHIP would be great for any pitcher, and would almost certainly gain them a Cy Young. But for Verlander, these stats are actually down from his award-winning campaign in 2011. He came up short in the All-Star Game, and struggled mightily in his lone World Series start this year, but make no mistake: Justin Verlander is still the best pitcher in baseball right now. His stats are impressive, the sabermetrics support him, but what makes Verlander the scariest hurler to take the mound is that, unlike most pitchers and against all logical conclusions, he gets better the longer he pitches in a game. Most pitchers throw much faster in the earlier innings than they do in the later innings, due simply to fatigue and working so hard. Verlander throws 91 in the 1st inning, 95 in the 6th inning, and 100 in the 9th inning (not coincidentally, he led baseball in complete games this season with 6, no small feat). For someone who understands the art of pitching better than anyone else today, it's surprising that he's only won the Cy Young once. But don't be surprised if you see him win his second this year, and many more soon to come.

NL Cy Young: R.A. Dickey, SP, New York Mets.
In the original draft of this post, I had Giants starter Matt Cain for this award. I mean, a perfect game? Starting the All-Star Game? Taking his team to another championship title? How could you not pick him? How could you not pick Nationals hurler Gio Gonzalez, who led the NL in wins with 21 in his first season in the Senior Circuit? What about Dodgers pitcher Clayton Kershaw, the reigning Cy Young recipient who had the lowest ERA (2.53) in the league? Heck, even Braves reliever Craig Kimbrel will get serious consideration after one of the greatest single-season relief performances in history. But it has to be Dickey, the least likely candidate just a year ago. The 37 year old knuckleballer wowed the baseball world this year, winning 20 games, leading the league in innings pitched (233), strikeouts (230) and was 3rd in the league behind Kershaw and Cain in WHIP with 1.05. He climbed Mt. Kilimanjaro this past offseason, and wrote a book talking about his struggles as a child after being molested by a babysitter. He has switched teams frequently in the past decade, and was never known for his knee-buckling knuckler until this season, when he absolutely dominanted baseball, including back-to-back 1-hit shutouts in June, both of which saw Dickey throw 10 or more strikeouts, the first time a single pitcher threw two such games in the same season, let alone in consecutive starts. And we found out, when the season ended, that he had torn a muscle in his stomach in Spring Training. He did all this with a painful injury? Give this man the Cy as quickly as possible.

AL MVP: Mike Trout, CF, Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim.
Now, any semi-loyal reader to this blog (and I know there are at least 3 of you somewhere out there) will remember the two Cage Match posts I wrote before the playoffs making a case for both Trout and Miguel Cabrera of the Tigers to win this award. In the first post, I said I believed Trout would win, but just barely. In the second, I admitted that I had no idea which one deserved it more, and that either one would be a good winner. But, as we inch closer to the actual announcement award, my gut is telling me it's Trout. Sure, Cabrera took his team to the World Series, but these awards are voted on before the postseason. Yes, Cabrera won the Triple Crown, but so did Carl Yastzremski in 1967 (the last one to do it before this year) and he didn't win MVP that year despite taking his Red Sox to the Fall Classic as well. Of course, Trout's a rookie and there is a specific award for that, but there are no rules in place that say a rookie can only win Rookie of the Year and not MVP (just ask Fred Lynn in 1975 or Ichiro in 2001). And when we took a look at it, I mean REALLY delve into the sabermetrics that are becoming so popular with today's fans, it becomes painfully clear that Trout excels in a way that even a powerhouse like Cabrera couldn't do in his best season...which just happened to be this one. As I've said before, this award is far too close to call, and could go either way. But don't be surprised if this Trout ends up hooking onto the MVP line while Cabrera flounders in 2nd place again.

NL MVP: Ryan Braun, LF, Milwaukee Brewers.
Before you jump down my throat for not picking Giants catcher Buster Posey, just listen: Braun ranked in the top 3 in batting average (3rd), RBI (2nd) and home runs (1st) in the National League. He was first in runs scored, slugging and OPS. He even stole 30 bases to go with his 40 home runs, notching yet another 30-30 season, his 2nd in a row. He notched a 6.8 WAR, good for 3rd in the NL. And he just happened to fail a drug test this time last year. Nobody is denying that he did fail the test, regardless of his successful appeal of his 50-game suspension. It was reported that the level of testosterone in his urine sample, most likely synthetic, was around 4 times higher than any other sample taken in the last decade and a half. Whatever it may have been, it was there. Don't you think that he, of all MLB players, would be tested regularly and monitored more closely than anyone else in 2012? If that was the case, and it undoubtedly was, how is it that he actually put up better numbers this season than he did last year when he won? Because he has talent, and he has power, and he plays the game the right way, despite what his detractors say. His numbers this year and last, while spectacular, really don't deviate much from his career averages: a .313 batting average (.319 this year), 37 homers (41), 118 RBI (112) and a .943 OPS (.987). Whatever caused his test results, they certainly didn't boost his already-impressive offensive output. He'll likely lose votes for that test, and Posey is just as deserving of the award, but for our part, we're going with a repeat win for the Hebrew Hammer.

These awards will all be announced in the second week of November, at which point we'll bring you updated analysis and see if we were right about any of the winners (we probably won't be).