A San Francisco Treat.

And that's the ballgame. The last ballgame of 2012, to be exact. After 6 months, 2,430 regular season games and some pretty spectacular postseason contests, one team stands alone at the top. The San Francisco Giants have won it all in the World Series against the Detroit Tigers, defeating them 4 games to 0. Now we can finally do every baseball fan's favorite thing: analyze this Fall Classic mercilessly.

For the second time in three years,  a bearded closer for the Giants leaps into Buster Posey's arms after closing out the World Series. Is this becoming a trend?

HOW DID THEY GET HERE?: GIANTS.
It's too easy to say that luck played a huge factor in the Giants' championship run. Sure, they won it all in 2010, but 2011 was a lost season for them. They missed the chance to repeat by missing the postseason altogether, Buster Posey missed most of the season with a broken leg, and the offense was truly abysmal. Aubrey Huff led the team with a .246 batting average. Pablo Sandoval led with 70 RBI and 134 hits. So, when they let midseason pickup Carlos Beltran walk last offseason and swung a trade with the Royals that got them Melky Cabrera, it was clear that they were thinking about improving at the plate more so than in the field or on the mound. And while Cabrera's performance in the All-Star Game and in many games during the regular season paid off, the eventual 50-game suspension for his use of PEDs surprisingly didn't hurt the team as much as predicted. Behind Posey, a sudden MVP candidate, Sandoval, who had a bounceback season for the ages, and trade acquisitions Marco Scutaro and Hunter Pence contributing as well, their offense became immensely better. Although Tim Lincecum struggled mightily, Matt Cain, Ryan Vogelsong and Barry Zito held the rotation together while Sergio Romo and Santiago Casilla filled the beard-shaped void left by Brian Wilson in the bullpen. 

HOW DID THEY GET HERE?: TIGERS.
The signing of Prince Fielder caused expectations for a World Series title to skyrocket in Detroit, and rightfully so. He would be batting behind powerhouse Miguel Cabrera, while having the reigning Cy Young and MVP winner Justin Verlander protecting him on the mound. It seemed like destiny. After losing last year's ALCS to the Rangers, the Tigers knew they had to retool. And when Victor Martinez went down with a torn ACL early in Spring Training, with Fielder still available, the Tigers pounced. Cabrera has been an MVP and Triple Crown threat for years, almost coming close to winning both on several occasions, but nobody could have predicted this would be the year that he would actually win the Crown, and possibly the MVP (damn you, Mike Trout). With Jose Valverde coming off a perfect season with 49 saves, the bullpen got a boost from signing Octavio Dotel, fresh off his championship win with the Cardinals. Doug Fister, Max Scherzer and midseason pickup Anibal Sanchez held the rotation down behind Verlander. All the pieces seemed to be in place for Detroit to finally hoist the Commissioner's Trophy again for the first time since 1984. They found themselves trailing the White Sox for the division for nearly the entire season, until they surged past the Chicago boys in the final week and into the playoffs.

WHAT WENT RIGHT?: GIANTS.
Their record in postseason elimination games, the theory that their pitching might actually be TOO good, and Pablo Sandoval. Except for the 1985 Royals, no team has ever won as many elimination games in a single postseason as the Giants did this year. In 6 separate games throughout the first two rounds of the playoffs, they had their backs against the wall, after going down 0-2 to the Reds in the Division Series and 3-1 to the Cardinals in the Championship Series. And yet, they just kept battling back. Could anyone have guessed that Barry Zito would have thrown a gem of a Game 5 in the NLCS in 2012? How could we have known that Tim Lincecum would shine in the playoffs, as a reliever? Did anyone speculate that Matt Cain would become the only hurler to win the clinching game of 3 postseason series in a single year? The mind reels when considering how good the Giants' pitching is. It almost seems unfathomable that they can throw out literally any pitcher they have, and he has a good chance to beat you. And what else do we need to say about Pablo Sandoval, the new World Series MVP? He became the 4th player in history to hit 3 home runs in a World Series game, in good company with Babe Ruth (who did it twice), Reggie Jackson and Albert Pujols. He could have flied out every other at-bat and still won MVP honors, but he ended up hitting .500 in these 4 games. Absolutely masterful.

WHAT WENT RIGHT?: TIGERS.
Their perseverance in the regular season and unwillingness to allow the White Sox to run away with the division. Cabrera winning the first Triple Crown in 45 years, Fielder continuing his streak of .300/30/100 seasons in his first year in the AL, and a healthy Fister certainly didn't hurt either. As far as what went right in the postseason, well...

The best pitcher in the game has yet to deliver in the most important contests, and his lone WS start did not differ from the norm. Another Cy Young could be in his future, but a ring still eludes him. 

WHAT WENT WRONG?: GIANTS.
It begins and ends with Buster Posey's offensive slump. While it clearly didn't impede the San Fran crew, his performance at the plate didn't touch what he did behind it. He hit 3 home runs, one of which was a grand slam in the final game of the NLDS against the Reds, but his average for the postseason was just .200. He struck out 15 times in 60 at-bats and walked 8 times. Sure, he's never been a power hitter, nor will he ever be. This isn't a catcher who will pass 30 home runs. He recorded 24 this year, and that may prove to be a career high. Still, it's hard to imagine anyone in San Francisco complaining about that. Otherwise, there isn't much that went wrong with the Giants this postseason. Hell, Barry Zito got the win in Game 1 and Tim Lincecum found more success in the bullpen than he did in the rotation at any point this season. Wacky things happen in October.

WHAT WENT WRONG?: TIGERS.

...Well, damn near everything. Maybe the sweep of the Yankees in the ALCS made them a little too cocky, and they got ahead of themselves. Maybe that week off did them in, just like it did when they lost to the Cardinals in the Fall Classic of 2006. Maybe Fielder felt too much pressure to live up to his immense contract in his first season with the Tigers, and the first World Series in his career. Whatever it was, this was not the team that surged past the Bronx Bombers behind big at-bats from Young and Fielder, or shutout performances by Verlander and Fister. They played sloppy in the field, allowing too many errors and not executing enough double plays, certainly nowhere near as many as the team they faced. Their Gold Glove-caliber centerfielder Austin Jackson made several crucial errors, a surprise for such a talented young player. Verlander, still considered the best pitcher in baseball right now, continued to prove that he is not a big game pitcher, notching a 11.25 ERA in his one start this World Series (4 innings, 4 strikeouts, and 5 runs allowed, including 2 home runs by Sandoval en route to 3). This is, of course, after he allowed 5 runs to the NL All-Stars back in July that, ironically, gave the Giants home field advantage, something else that worked against these Tigers (not that they performed any better at their home stadium, but you get the point). Young and Jhonny Peralta, heroes against the Yanks, both got shut down at the plate in the same vein as Cabrera and Fielder. Valverde yielded the closer's role to Phil Coke, both of whom blew a save situation when they most needed to close it out. Basically, the Giants made the Tigers look like the Tigers made the Yankees look a little under 2 weeks ago. And in this case, that's not a good thing.

CAN THEY DO IT AGAIN?: GIANTS.
Yes. Absolutely. We should have seen this coming years ago. This is a team that is built to last: they're young, they're loose, and they're talented. Posey is just 25, even though he looks like he's 16. Cain signed a 5 year extension earlier this season, and will give the Giants his prime years. Lincecum's bullpen performance gives hope for a bounceback year in 2013. Sandoval has finally regained his power swing, and still defends third base like a player half his weight. Oh yeah, we'll be seeing them in the World Series again. 

CAN THEY DO IT AGAIN?: TIGERS.
Probably. Maybe even better next time. Fielder finally has a taste of serious postseason play, and he can't do much worse in another Fall Classic than he did in this one (1 for 14 at the plate). Cabrera is still just 30 years old, and a second championship title (he was a rookie for the 2003 Marlins) would boost his potential Hall of Fame credentials. Verlander is chomping at the bit for another opportunity to prove that he can deliver in the highest of high-tension games. Don't ever count the Tigers out.

As another season begins to fade into the rearview mirror, we at TBF want to congratulate the San Francisco Giants for winning their 7th title in franchise history, and for doing so in such a masterful way. But just because the season is over doesn't mean we're done here at The Baseball Freak. Keep it tuned here for all the offseason awards, signings and trades, as well as the same in-depth analysis you've come to know and love. 

A Quick Update Before All Hell Breaks Loose.

Since several transactions have occurred off the field, we'll briefly discuss them as we gear up for the World Series, starting with a brand new segment, I Can't Believe He Got Fired!: Sarcastic Edition.

• The first entry in our ICBHGF:SE post, Bobby Valentine's tumultuous time as manager of the Red Sox mercifully came to a close two days after the regular season ended, when he was relieved of his duties. He led Boston to its first last-place finish since 1966 with a 69-93 record, and was viewed by many as responsible for running respected veteran Kevin Youkilis out of town after his remarks about the third baseman led Youk to be traded to the Chicago White Sox. Valentine's firing was all but certain, and just 3 weeks after it happened, the Sox finally got the man they really wanted last offseason in John Farrell, who spent the last year and a half managing the Blue Jays after spending time as Boston's pitching coach. In return for Farrell and minor league pitcher David Carpenter, the Red Sox sent shortstop Mike Aviles to Toronto, which may very well spell the end for troubled Yunel Escobar in the North. Farrell has already received votes of confidence from both the front office and the players, something that eluded Valentine since the day he was announced as manager. Will Farrell fare better than Valentine did, or will the stunning collapse of 2011 still float just above the heads of anyone who dons the Red Sox? This Yankees fan is hoping for the latter.

• In other ICBHEGF:SE news, three managers were dismissed or quit within the past 3 weeks. Indians skipper Manny Acta, who presided over a Cleveland team that was in the running for the AL Central crown as late as mid-July but blew up down the stretch, was let go days before the regular season ended; Rockies manager Jim Tracy, who had a "handshake agreement" to manage the team "indefinitely", resigned several days following the conclusion of the season; and word just broke this afternoon that Ozzie Guillen, who was acquired by the Marlins from the White Sox just a year ago and signed to a 4-year deal, has also been relieved of his duties. Acta, who has the third lowest winning percentage for a manager in baseball history, managed the Indians since 2010, was let go with 6 days remaining in the regular season, and was succeeded by his bench coach, Sandy Alomar, Jr. However, a few weeks ago, former Red Sox manager Terry Francona was welcomed back into the organization he had worked for almost a decade ago, and now Acta is supposedly in the running for the openings in Toronto and Colorado. Tracy, who managed a Rockies team that lost star shortstop Troy Tulowitzki early in the year and had high expectations for the last 2 seasons, decided it would be more beneficial for him and the Rockies to part ways instead of continuing to lose together. First baseman Jason Giambi, who has played in Colorado for the last two seasons, interviewed for the position, was apparently quite impressive according to sources, and would retire as a player to manage the team. Guillen, always controversial, caused a scandal at the outset of the season when his inflammatory remarks supporting dictator Fidel Castro garnered him a 5-game suspension, then he watched as his players fell one by one to injuries or trades. There were high expectations of this Miami team with Ozzie at the helm, and not only did they disappoint, they failed spectacularly. The next manager of the Marlins has his work cut out for him.

• We have our first big trade of the 2012-2013 offseason! Hooray! The Diamondbacks acquired shortstop Cliff Pennington and minor league infielder Yordy Cabrera from the Athletics in exchange for centerfielder Chris Young, and the D-backs turned around and traded Cabrera to the Marlins for reliever Heath Bell and cash. The Diamondbacks, with  surplus of young, power-hitting outfielders, felt trading Young was worth it to receive Pennington in return, as shortstop was something of a black hole for Arizona in 2012 (interestingly enough, they traded their starting shortstop, Stephen Drew, to the Athletics several months ago). Young joins a crowded Oakland outfield with Josh Reddick, Coco Crisp and Yoenis Cespedes all projected to return in 2013 for the reigning AL West Division champs, but there are rumblings that general manager and Moneyball inspiration Billy Beane could work some of his magic and send Crisp or Cespedes to a team that would, in turn, send promising prospects back to the A's. For the Marlins' part, they got rid of one of their albatross contracts (something owner Jeffrey Loria seems to specialize in) while sending Bell back to the division in which he led MLB with 151 saves between 2009 and 2011. This familiar scenery may be exactly what Bell needs, after an extremely disappointing season in which he had career highs in ERA and blown saves, and was replaced by Steve Cishek as Miami's closer early in the season. The Marlins also received Cabrera, a third baseman, to help shore up the hot corner in the absence of Hanley Ramirez, who was traded to the Dodgers this season. 

• And to wrap up our first offseason post, we'd like to congratulate Rays closer Fernando Rodney and Giants catcher Buster Posey for winning the first offseason awards announced, AL and NL Comeback Players of the Year. Rodney spent 2011 with the Angels, saved 3 games and blew 4, had 10 holds in 39 appearances, and was generally not used by manager Mike Scoscia. In 2012 with the Rays, however, he recorded 48 saves, only blew 2, and had a 0.60 ERA, the lowest single-season ERA for a reliever in Major League Baseball history. He also won the Delivery Man of the Year award, a Cy Young award for relievers, and is even being considered for the real thing. Posey missed the last 4 months of the 2011 season after a home plate collision with Blue Jays outfielder Scott Cousins (then of the Marlins) left him with a broken leg. Since returning to action in 2012, though, he emerged as a serious MVP candidate, winning the batting title with a .336 average (after teammate and suspended PED user Melky Cabrera's .346 was disqualified) and hitting 24 home runs and 103 RBI on the year, not to mention his grand slam in Game 5 of the NLDS that helped seal their comeback and NLCS appearance. Posey will now have a chance to win his second ring in his 3-year career as the Giants will be taking on the Tigers in the World Series starting tomorrow. Again, congratulations to both players.

The Post I Didn't Mind Writing.

Huh. This is one of the first times that one of my baseball predictions came out wrong, and I'm happier than I would have been if I were right. Just 4 days after the Detroit Tigers swept the New York Yankees in the ALCS, the San Francisco Giants have overtaken the St. Louis Cardinals in the NLCS in the full 7 games, and they will move on to face the Tigers in the World Series starting this Wednesday.

The Giants should be excited. In 6 games this postseason, they faced elimination, and they won every time, and now they're going to the World Series. Ain't baseball funny?

Want to know a fun stat real quick? Of course you do. Before tonight, the Giants were 0-5 all time in Game 7s. That means every time they played in a winner-take-all contest in the postseason, they were a lock to lose, every single time. After tonight, though, they are a much more respectable 1-5. However, I get the feeling that they're focusing less on the 5 losses and more on the win, the win that came so easily for a team that is rarely in a situation like that. The Giants fought and scrapped most of the season just to stay ahead of the Los Angeles Dodgers and even the Arizona Diamondbacks in the standings, finally clinching the division on September 22nd when they beat the San Diego Padres, the same team they ousted on the final day of the 2010 season that eventually culminated in a championship title for the boys by the Bay. They found themselves in a deep hole very early in the Division Series against the Cincinnati Reds, who won the first two games as the series moved to San Fran. Behind the masterful pitching of Tim Lincecum in relief (who knew that a move to the bullpen was all that was needed to turn the Freak's year around?), a grand slam by Buster Posey in the final game (if the LDS awarded an MVP award, Posey would have had it in the bag simply for that at-bat), and a little luck (home field advantage certainly played a part), the Giants managed to win the last 3 games of the best-of-5 and knock out the heavily-favored Reds. They advanced to the Championship Series, where they faced the Cards, the first time that the two most recent World Series winners have faced each other in the LCS for the opportunity to head back to the Fall Classic. While the Cards threatened by winning the first game in San Francisco, the Giants evened up the series in Game 2 as the series switched to Busch Stadium. They lost 2 of 3 in St. Louis, and returned home down 3 games to 2. The history was all against them. But they performed masterfully in Game 7, the first time they've done so in history. Matt Cain made his fellow starters proud by throwing a shutout against the defending champions, with some help from his bullpen and an offense that exploded for 9 runs over 8 innings. The Giants become the first team in MLB history to win 6 straight elimination games in a single postseason, and they're going to run into a Tigers team with everything to prove as well. This is sure to be a great World Series.

Motivated by last year's spectacular run, the Cards couldn't replicate their 2011 success.

For the Cardinals, October is significantly less kind in 2012 than it was in 2011. They found themselves in the same position this postseason that they did last year: viewed as dangerous underdogs, a team that could strike at any time or not at all. And it certainly didn't help that they lost their star first baseman, their longtime manager, and their reliable hitting coach all before spring training even began. What did help, surprisingly, was signing a 35 year old right fielder in Carlos Beltran, who promptly went .269/32/97 and made a team that lost the best batter of this generation barely notice the man was gone. Reigning World Series MVP (for another week) David Freese came into the season with high expectations after his historic playoff form in 2011, and while he wasn't terrible (20 homers, 79 RBI and an OPS of .839 are nothing to stick your nose up at), he certainly wasn't the force this postseason that he was last year, getting 13 hits in 47 plate appearances through the first two rounds and hitting one home run in 13 games. Veterans like Matt Holliday and Yadier Molina stepped up as well, with the two perennial boppers keeping the team afloat while players like Lance Berkman and Rafael Furcal spent extended time on the disabled list, and rookies like Pete Kozma and Matt Carpenter got a chance to make their cases for starting jobs down the line. But, surprisingly, this Cardinals team's biggest strength was their pitching. Adam Wainwright, fully recovered from surgery he had before the 2011 season, had to fill in the role opposite of the one he played a year ago: Chris Carpenter, the man who pitched beautifully in last year's postseason and redefined our perception of a big game pitcher, spent nearly the entire season recovering from surgery of his own. He went 14-13 with a 3.94 ERA and 184 strikeouts. Nothing special, but his presence was pivotal to the continued success of a team no one wanted to meet in October. After a hilariously blown call in Atlanta garnered them a Wild Card berth, they took the Division Series against the Nationals all the way to Game 5, in which they were down 6 runs in the 8th inning and still won the game 9-7 to advance to their second straight Championship Series. This explains why many weren't comfortable with the 7-0 lead the Giants had last night, thinking that if any team in this day and age could come back from that kind of deficit, it was the Cards. But after some timely misplays, the Cards found themselves flying low back to St. Louis

Well, we're finally here. The 108th World Series, between the Detroit Tigers and the San Francisco Giants, will start tomorrow, and with it, sadly, the end of the 2012 season. But this is far from decided. The two teams are matched quite nicely (expect a post analyzing both sides between Games 2 and 3), and it appears the stars are aligning for an awesome matchup. Keep it tuned here for any breaking news before the Series reaches its conclusion.

The Post I Didn't Want To Write.

Let me start this post off the way I've started many other posts: it's no secret that I am a Yankees fan. At heart, I am a baseball fan first and foremost, but if I have to pick a team to root for, through thick and thin, no matter what happens, I've picked the Yanks. They were winning pennants and World Series left and right when I was in my formative years, and I grew to love them. So this post, as few before and potentially many after were and will be, is difficult to write. But it must be written: the Detroit Tigers have defeated the New York Yankees in a 4-game sweep, and will be moving on to the World Series, to face the winner of the St. Louis Cardinals-San Francisco Giants matchup in the National League.

These two big boppers will have a chance to strut their stuff in the World Series.

To the Tigers' credit, they certainly earned this honor: they have the best batter in baseball (reigning Triple Crown winner and serious MVP candidate Miguel Cabrera, who is only hitting .290 with a towering 2-run homer and 5 RBI this postseason but is a force nonetheless), the best 1-2 punch in the middle of the lineup (Cabrera and Prince Fielder, who's hitting .182 but has a home run and 3 RBI), and the best pitcher in the game (Justin Verlander, whose past postseason struggles appear to be behind him, as he's 3-0 with a sparkling 0.74 ERA this October). Their lineup, also supported by players like Delmon Young (7 postseason home runs for the Tigers, a franchise record for a team that once housed sluggers like Ty Cobb, Hank Greenberg, Charlie Gehringer and Al Kaline), Jhonny Peralta (who's hitting .385 and has delivered some clutch hits when the situation has called for it through the first two rounds), and Austin Jackson (who's hitting .273 with a triple and has made some spectacular plays in the outfield). The bullpen has effectively weathered the struggles of fallen closer Jose Valverde, with Phil Coke stepping into the 9th inning role and pitching to a pristine 0.00 ERA and 2 saves, or one more than he had all regular season. And while Valverde's time as the closer may temporarily be over, Papa Grande is still available to pitch in a tight situation, which shows that the Tigers' pen is indeed a lucky one, to have the most recent "perfect" closer not even finishing games. What's more, the rotation is just as It's scary to think how much better this team could have been, or still will be, with Cabrera and Fielder batting to their abilities. These are two of the best batters in the game, and they're getting upstaged by people like Alex Avila to this point. Could they win it all? There's an extremely high chance, and it'll be easier to determine that once the Senior Circuit has their champion crowned. For now, the Tigers are riding high on the adrenaline of their second World Series appearance in the last decade.

Is he frustrated about yet another strikeout, or blowing a kiss to a woman in the stands? Too hard to tell.

The biggest heartbreak is not that the Yankees lost (many would argue that it's not a heartbreaker at all), but how they lost. Derek Jeter went down in the first game of the ALCS with a broken ankle. Robinson Cano set the longest hitless streak in postseason history by going 0-29. Alex Rodriguez...I'm not even going to get into that one. I'll just say the next 5 years are going to feel way longer than they should (and I'm just putting this in writing on the off chance it actually happens: the Marlins will come a-callin' about A-Rod very soon, and the Yanks will be overjoyed at the opportunity, no matter how much of the albatross of a contract they'll have to eat, you heard it here first). Raul Ibanez and Ichiro were the top performers? What is this, 2004? What was even worse was the rotation. The Yanks sent Hiroki Kuroda to the mound, but even though he turned in a pretty good performance for the first Japanese pitcher to throw a postseason game for New York, he couldn't turn it into a win. And past that? Whew. Andy Pettitte, who still holds the record for most postseason wins, was 0-1 in 2 starts this October, with a respectable 3.29 ERA and 10 strikeouts in 13.2 innings, but in this case, runs matter more than the peripheral stats. Phil Hughes did well in Game 3 but still took the loss. David Phelps blew up in Game 1, the same game where the mighty Jeter fell. Overall, not a prosperous October for the Bronx boys. I could take a page from Cubs fans and say there's always next year, but you know what that will bring? The same team, a year older. That didn't work out so well this year, especially against a Tigers team whose three best players (Cabrera, Fielder and Verlander) are all under 30, whereas the average age on the Yankees bench is 36 (this is not a joke). Just like with the Rangers, the window for a championship title anytime soon is closing, and 2013 will create more questions in New York than it answers.

Congratulations to the Tigers for sweeping, and for the chance to win their first championship title since 1984. Will the Tigers square off against the Giants for their first World Series title in 28 years? Or will they face the Cardinals for the 4th time in baseball history? Stay tuned.

The Captain's Lament.

Derek Jeter transcends baseball. You may not like the Yankees. You may even despise the Yankees. You may be disgusted by their obscene payroll, their superstars acting like prima donnas, or their tendency to stick around no matter what travesties befall them. But whether you're a casual hater or a lifetime opponent, you most likely respect Derek Jeter. Red Sox fans and players have gushed about what a joy Jeter is to watch or square off against. If the Yankees' longest, most hated rivals can admit they're fans of Jeter, you know he's special. So to see him go down, especially during a time of the year in which he excels, is upsetting no matter who you root for. And if you're a Yankees fan (like me), and if Derek Jeter is your favorite player (he's mine), then what happened last night in extra innings will absolutely break your heart (like mine did).

I have no words for this one.

It was the first game of the 2012 American League Championship Series. The Detroit Tigers were facing the Yankees in the Bronx, and they were tied after 11 innings. The Tigers drew first blood, scoring 4 runs thanks to Prince Fielder, Avisail Garcia, and two hits from Delmon Young, before 2-run shots by Ichiro and Raul Ibanez tied the game in the bottom of the 9th. Reliever after reliever took the mound for both sides after Detroit closer Jose Valverde couldn't nail down the save (a far cry from the perfect season he had last year), and the game was still knotted 4-4 heading into the 12th inning. Miguel Cabrera, the most dangerous hitter in baseball right now, took a walk to first base, and was advanced by a Prince Fielder groundout. Delmon Young hit a ball that missed Nick Swisher's glove and scored Miggy, and then...it happened. Jhonny Peralta hit a ball on the left side of second base. It was a routine play, one hundreds of shortstops have made thousands of times. Jeter dove for the ball, but landed awkwardly on his left leg. The leg that's been giving him trouble for months. He went down and stayed down; he lightly tossed the ball towards his double play partner Robinson Cano, but when he didn't pop back up and get back into position, manager Joe Girardi and his trainers knew something was wrong.

After the game, Girardi confirmed that Jeter fractured his ankle. He wouldn't require surgery, but the projected recovery period would be three months, which made it all too obvious that the Yankees would be playing the rest of this postseason without Derek, the first such situation since 1995. Losing a star player in the middle of the playoffs is bad. Losing your team captain is catastrophic. Losing the all-time leader in postseason hits, who's played in 158 straight postseason games, and has led your team to 5 championship titles...there isn't a single word powerful enough to describe the negative connotations. Awfulterribledreadfulatrocioushorrendous comes close.

"It's fine. I promise. Take A-Rod out if you have to, just keep me here."

Can the Yankees advance to the World Series without Jeter? No. Flat out, cards on the table, no. Ichiro and Ibanez have kept this team afloat (both of whom are rapidly approaching 40), while players like Cano (in the middle of an 0-21 slump and only 2-27 this postseason), Curtis Granderson (only 1 home run in the last 6 games), and Alex Rodriguez (not even space to talk about how bad he's been) have been struggling. To lose Jeter all but guarantees that the Tigers will take this series. They have the most recent Triple Crown winner in Cabrera, a monstrous force in Fielder, a surprising power hitter in Young, and a lineup that properly complements the three. Not to mention their rotation: Doug Fister turned in a great performance last night, Anibal Sanchez and Max Scherzer shore up the back end of the rotation, and don't forget that Detroit has the best pitcher of the last 5 years in Justin Verlander starting at Comerica on Tuesday. If the Bronx Bombers want to stand a chance at avenging the loss of their captain, they need to start living up to their name, because this series can quickly devolve into a home run contest, and there's no guarantee the Yanks will come out victorious otherwise.

Derek Jeter transcends baseball. There's no getting around it. Losing him for the rest of the postseason gives the playoffs a different feel, one that hasn't been experienced in nearly 2 decades. Maybe it's good practice for when he retires. If it's all the same, though, I'd much rather cross that bridge when we come to it, not hop over the 2012 tributary and praying the floodgates don't burst. From all of us here at TBF, we wish Jeter a speedy and full recovery.

Playing The Right Cards/A National Disaster.

Well. I suppose it's nice that we're through the first round of the playoffs. But I can't say that it gets any more interesting from here. In what was a stunning upset in the last Division Series game played this season, the St. Louis Cardinals returned to the National League Championship Series for the second year in a row after defeating the Washington Nationals, who were making their first postseason appearance as a team in the nation's capitals.

This is not a team you want to see celebrating in October.

Nobody wanted to see the Cardinals in the postseason this year. No one. Cardinals fans may say that they did. They're lying; they do that, they're Cardinals fans. They just barely made their way into the playoffs last year, and we all know how that went. But here's a refresher anyway: they were 10 games out in August, leapfrogged the Braves on the last day of the season to clinch the Wild Card, overcame the Phillies in the Division Series, bested the Brewers in the Championship Series, and outlasted the Rangers to win their 11th World Series in franchise history. Coming into this season, they lost Albert Pujols, Tony LaRussa and Dave Duncan, three men who made the improbable run of 2011 seem possible, while only picking up veteran outfielder Carlos Beltran in their absences. However, with a returning core of Yadier Molina, Matt Holliday, Lance Berkman (who unfortunately couldn't follow up his Comeback Player of the Year campaign in 2011 and missed nearly the entire season with persistent injuries), Allen Craig and reigning NLCS/World Series MVP David Freese, this was a Cardinals team that could have made last year's team look like a bunch of minor leaguers. They ranked in the top 10 in all offensive categories, and were tops in baseball in OBP (.338). Molina blossomed into a possible MVP candidate, shortly after signing an extension that set the bar for power hitting catchers, a commodity in today's game. What was truly spectacular about these never-say-die Cards, though, was their rotation. A healthy Adam Wainwright weathered the loss of Chris Carpenter nearly all season, in a complete reversal of roles from last year. Along with Kyle Lohse, Jaime Garcia and and Lance Lynn, all of whom led the team in a single defensive category, they kept the team afloat when the lineup happened to not be delivering, which they normally were. The bullpen was effective as well, with Brian Wilson impersonator Jason Motte notching 42 saves and 86 strikeouts. They have garnered a reputation as being a terrifying force to be reckoned with, and only the Giants stand in the way of a repeat World Series appearance.

If the Nats had won the series, this might have become an iconic image in the District of Columbia for ages.

First things first: Stephen Strasburg probably wouldn't have helped out as much as the Nationals would have needed. From the second GM Mike Rizzo announced this offseason that Strasburg would be shut down at a "magic number" of innings, the debate raged regarding whether or not the Nats were handling Strasburg's progess properly. The decision was most likely made because nobody would have guessed that the Nationals were going to make baseball relevant in the nation's capital, at least not this year. Bryce Harper wasn't on the Opening Day roster, Drew Storen and Michael Morse started the season on the DL, and Gio Gonzalez was pitching in the NL full-time for the first season of his relatively short career. Jayson Werth was in the second season of a 7-year contract many felt he didn't deserve, and Ian Desmond hadn't brought out his full potential. But baseball is a funny thing sometimes. In a year when the Nats almost needed to not contend, they did. They rode a wave of skill, power, and a little luck to the best record in baseball. Harper turned in an impressive campaign for NL Rookie of the Year (and should thank his lucky stars he didn't have to compete with super-rookie Mike Trout in the AL), Storen, Morse and Werth all weathered their injuries well enough to make an impact in the last two months during the most crucial stretch, Desmond, Ryan Zimmermann, Jordan Zimmerman and Tyler Clippard all put up respectable numbers, and Gonzalez turned into a Cy Young candidate for the ages. When it became obvious that postseason baseball was going to be played for the first time in Washington since the Senators made the Fall Classic in 1933, there was wide speculation that the Nats would go back on their decision to shut Strasburg down, or that they would use him in the postseason. Neither of these came to fruition, as Rizzo and manager Davey Johnson stuck to their guns and left Strasburg off the postseason roster just to put any remaining rumors to rest. Whether his presence or arm would have made a difference will never be seen now, as the Nats exit the first round of the playoffs. But just imagine what a fully charged Strasburg can add to this team in 2013. Scary.

The playoff picture now looks like this:

NL Championship Series: Cardinals at Giants.
AL Championship Series: Tigers at Yankees.

My updated postseason predictions, for all they're not worth:

NLCS: Cardinals over Giants.
ALCS: Yankees over Tigers.

WS: Yankees over Cardinals in 5 games.

Stay tuned for any crucial updates, and for our recap after each postseason series.

The Evil Empire Strikes Again/Bye, Bye, Birdies.

Another prediction I got wrong, and this was the one I should have picked right. After 5 games, and a tied season series, the New York Yankees defeated the Baltimore Orioles for the chance to advance to their 41st World Series appearance in franchise history, and the Orioles' first winning season in a decade and a half comes to an abrupt end.

Thanks to some re-energized veterans (not you, A-Rod), the Yanks are in a position they are very familiar with.

One tends to assume (I assume) that the Yankees are normally a lock for the playoffs (ignore the years between 1981 and 1995). You take for granted that you're going to see pinstripes worn deep into the fall, and if you're a staunch fan, any season ending in anything less than a 4-game sweep of the World Series is viewed, overall, as a failure. While the Yanks are the last American League team to win it all, that was back in 2009. In terms of championship-obsessed fans, that was ages ago. And after two disappointing playoff exits in the past 2 years (an ALCS exit to the eventual champion Texas Rangers in 2010, and an embarrassing first-round defeat by their opponent in this year's Championship Series, the Detroit Tigers), this year, they knew they had to do something to sate the insatiable, to satisfy the unsatisfiable, to deliver a championship to a fanbase that would immediately say, "Great, do it again next year or no one will care." Derek Jeter was up to the test. A 38-year-old shortstop who many thought was past his prime, Jeter hit his stride after his 3,000th hit last July and hasn't looked back. He led the American League in hits with 216, and his .316 batting average was not only his highest season BA since the last Yanks championship, but was good enough for 5th in the AL. Curtis Granderson, the low-average-high-power centerfielder, and Mark Teixeira, the similarly-skilled first baseman, combined for 67 home runs, 190 RBIs, and a .242 batting average (believe it or not, the Yanks were 8th in baseball in BA, with .256, helped in part by the midseason acquisition of embattled Mariners outfielder Ichiro Suzuki, clamoring to play for a contender once more before he retires). And after injuries decimated most of the rotation and left legendary closer Mariano Rivera out for the entire season, starters CC Sabathia, Hiroki Kuroda, and closer Rafael Soriano lended some timely performances, even though they ranked between 10th and 19th in all defensive categories. Although they missed many opportunities in the LDS thanks to third baseman and notorious October choker Alex Rodriguez continuing to see his skills decline at a terrifying pace, people like MVP candidate Robinson Cano and pinch-hitting expert Raul Ibanez kept the Bombers alive to outlast the O's in 5.

Even after a crushing first-round exit, the Orioles have a lot to look forward to.

The Orioles must hate seeing any postseason scenario that would match them up with the Yanks at any point. After the infamous Jeffrey Maier incident in 1996 that many point to as the beginning of a long period of poor performance for the O's, the Baltimore crew found themselves entering 2012 in a position they had been in for 15 years: manning the bottom of the AL East and serving as fodder for better, more prepared teams. But something different happened: they won some games. A lot, to be exact. For a team that finished with a 69-93 record, just winning 70 games the next year is an improvement. But thanks to some key pieces, mainly newly-extended centerfielder Adam Jones, who led the team with a .287 average and 103 runs, Rangers castoff Chris Davis leading the team with 33 home runs and 85 RBIs, and rookie hurler Wei-Yin Chen, who faltered down the stretch but still led the rotation with 12 wins, a 4.02 ERA and 154 strikeouts, the Birds got to experience postseason baseball for the first time since 1997, after cruising to a playoff berth with 93 wins and a defeat of the 2-time defending AL champs, the Rangers. A lot of their success was credited to Manager of the Year likely Buck Showalter, whose creativity and experience saved a team that had to use 12 different starters throughout the year, with Chen being the only one making more than 20 starts (he made 32). The addition of longtime DH Jim Thome and the re-emergence of first baseman/strikeout machine Mark Reynolds as a hitter cut in the same cloth as Granderson and Teixeira, as well as the late addition of highly-prized prospect Manny Machado bolstered the offense, that ranked as high as 11th in all offensive stats. The bullpen was where most of the Orioles' magic really came from in 2012: closer Jim Johnson exploded for a breakout year not seen in a 9th inning man since Eric Gagne's Cy Young award-winning season in 2003, with 51 saves in 71 games pitched and a 2.49 ERA in 69 innings pitched. Although the season ended much sooner than these hungry Beltway fans were anticipating, the Orioles can be proud of the season they enjoyed. They improved all across the board in all offensive and defensive stats, and 93 wins gave them their first winning season since, you guessed it, 1997. And who knows? With the way they've been playing, only one botched play by an opponent could have them in a much better position this time next year.

The Tigers, winner in their LDS matchup against the A's, will face the Yankees in the Bronx tomorrow in Game 1, when Doug Fister, who set the MLB record for consecutive strikeouts just a few starts ago, will take on Andy Pettitte, the winningest postseason pitcher in history. As for the Giants, they await the result of the Cardinals-Nationals Game 5 taking place right now. In just a few hours, we'll have the first round recap and updated predictions.

Tigers On The Prowl/Moneybust.

At least one part of one prediction I made is still intact. The Detroit Tigers are heading to their second straight ALCS appearance, after knocking out the surprising Oakland Athletics in the first round. A result not completely unexpected, to be sure, but there's still something to be said for those A's.

Justin Verlander! Again?

Amazingly, signing first baseman Prince Fielder didn't automatically make the Tigers the favorites this offseason. The flurry of signings by the Angels and Marlins were considered more "sure-fire" kickstarters for a deep postseason run, but we all know how that's worked out for both franchises so far. Fielder's signing was more a move of necessity than luxury: designated hitter Victor Martinez went down for the season with a torn ACL back in February, and Prince miraculously hadn't found a new throne yet after abdicating his position in Milwaukee. So, the Tigers signed him to a 9-year pact worth $214 million, and thanks to his successful transition to the American League, Triple Crown winner and new third baseman Miguel Cabrera turning in one of the most spectacular offensive seasons since 1967, and reigning Cy Young/MVP/Best Pitcher On The Planet Justin "Credible" Verlander also following up his award-winning season with a solid year, a second straight ALCS appearance might have been in the stars from the beginning. Of course, just like in every good show, there's the supporting cast to thank as well: Doug Fister, Max Scherzer and Rick Porcello auditioned wonderfully for the parts of "Best Tigers Starter Not Named Verlander"; Jose Valverde blew a few saves here and there but was rock steady for the most part; catcher Alex Avila and outfielders Austin Jackson and Quintin Berry helped keep the offense afloat when Cabrera and Fielder weren't crushing baseballs into the stands, along with the hopes and dreams of opposing pitchers. The Motown crew sang a pretty tune overall, notching no lower than 11th in any offensive stat and reaching 3rd in OBP (.335), while the rotation, surprisingly, ranked near the middle of the pack, between 9th (ERA, 3.75) and 19th (opponents' batting average, .256). Still, the team had to watch as the White Sox, and even the Indians for a few months, enjoyed higher rankings in the standings. But through hard work, perseverance, and having the best pitcher and corner infielders in the game, these Tigers will be in the hunt for at least one more series.

Josh Reddick and the A's fought off the inevitable for much longer than in the past few years, but it had to happen.

The last decade, like the two before it, haven't been particularly kind to the Athletics. Sure, they played in the postseason in 2001-2003, and made it to the ALCS in 2006 where they were beaten by, you guessed it, the Tigers. But "Moneyball", the system popularized by general manager Billy Beane's integration of advanced sabermetrics into player evaluations, has yet to pay dividends for the A's, aside from a bestselling novel and critically acclaimed movie on the matter. However, 2012 was a year to be proud of in Oakland no matter how it ended. Their biggest moves this offseason were signing a 33-year-old centerfielder who already spent the two proceeding seasons with them in Coco Crisp, a 39-year-old pitcher who had a year that was almost too good to be true in Bartolo Colon (later suspended for 50 games for usage of performance-enhancing drugs), gave a 4 year/$36 million contract to a 26-year-old Cuban defector who had never played a day of Major League Baseball in Yoenis Cespedes (who finished the year leading the team in both batting average and OPS), and trading away their two best pitchers (Gio Gonzalez and Trevor Cahill), closer (Andrew Bailey), and letting their best hitter the year before (Josh Willingham) walk to Minnesota. What did they get in return? Two pitchers, a catcher, and two outfielders (Tommy Milone and Jarrod Parker, Derek Norris, Josh Reddick and Seth Smith) that would lead them to the most impressive contender in a season full of impressive contenders. They managed to knock the Rangers out of the top spot in the division on the last day of the season, the first time any team had been 5 games back with 9 to play and still win their division crown. Not bad for a team that was projected to lose 90 games. The team stats are nothing impressive; in fact, they were 28th in batting average (.238, the lowest for any posteason team...ever) and 24th in OBP (.310). Their pitching was much better, ranking between 5th and 10th in all defensive stats. It's a shame to see such a good story come to an end, but just like with the movie, Moneyball can always have a sequel next year.

One team has been scheduled for the League Championship Series in both leagues, the Giants and now the Tigers. They each await the winner of the two remaining Division Series: the Giants will either face the Cardinals or Nationals on Sunday, and the Tigers will play either the Yankees or the Orioles on Saturday. Stay tuned.

A Giant Upset/Red-Less October.

See? What did I say? Anytime I pick a team to win it all, or even to advance, I'm wrong. But it seems that the Cincinnati Reds were doomed before I even picked them, and it started when they were matched up against the San Francisco Giants in the Division Series.

Posey's performance on both sides of the plate has propelled the Giants into another postseason victory.

Before 2010, the Giants hadn't won a World Series since 1954, when Willie Mays made "The Catch" and the team was still located in New York. Then, after handily taking care of the Rangers in 5 games, they missed a repeat appearance in 2011. This year, they weren't necessarily considered favorites. Sure, Matt Cain threw a perfect game, and Buster Posey blossomed into a MVP candidate, but Tim Lincecum's arm mysteriously broke down, and Brian Wilson's absence in the bullpen left no beard to be feared. Matters were only made worse when All-Star Game MVP and burgeoning superstar Melky Cabrera was suspended for 50 games after testing positive for a performance-enhancing drug. However, the Giants persevered and clinched their second division crown in 3 years (you'll hear a lot of that "second x in 3 years" in the next few sentences, just a heads up). Their team stats matched up nicely to everyone else's: they ranked 5th in baseball with a .269 team batting average, and were in the top half of every defensive stat, ranking as high as 6th in quality starts with 93. They found themselves down 0-2 to the Reds, the winners in the Central, but when the series moved to Cincinnati, the Giants seemed to come alive, highlighted by the grand slam hit by Posey in Game 5. Posey, for those of you wondering (which is all of you), became the third catcher in history to hit a grand slam in a decisive postseason game, behind the Cubs' Eddie Perez in the 1998 NLDS and the Yankees' Yogi Berra in the 1956 World Series. Against nearly all odds, the Giants turned in a pretty spectacular 3 games in Great American Ball Park, and all while history was against them: they have become the first team to be facing elimination in the National League Division Series 0-2, then come back to win 3-2.

Latos helped the Reds to a division win, but his performance in the postseason was less than helpful.

In comparison, history was not in the Reds' favor either: they are winless in elimination games in 1975. Completely. And today was no exception. After an offseason that saw Joey Votto become the top first baseman in the National League, with Albert Pujols and Prince Fielder jumping to the American League, the Reds led the division for almost the entire year. The Cardinals, Pirates and even the Brewers threatened for a few weeks, but this was always Cincinnati's division to lose. With stellar offensive performances turned in by Votto and fellow powerhouse Jay Bruce, and the addition of hurler Mat Latos behind Cy Young candidate Johnny Cueto, they seemed poised to finish what they started when Bruce's walk-off homer blasted them into the postseason in 2010, which was cut short when Roy Halladay no-hit them in Game 1, and the rest of the Phillies quickly dispatched them in the Division Series. This year's Reds fared slightly better in terms of team stats: they ranked between 13th and 21st in all offensive stats, finding their strength being slugging percentage (.411), but it was their pitching that truly kept their hopes alive, ranking no lower than 7th in any defensive stat, and notching 3rd in baseball in WHIP with 1.23, and 4th in ERA and QS with 3.34 and 98, respectively. Homer Bailey turned in a nice game with a no-hitter against the Pirates in the final week of the season, but their regular season success just didn't translate, and after beasting through the first two games of the Division Series, they faltered and allowed the Giants to advance in their stead. Facing their second first-round exit in 3 years, the Reds will have to figure out a way to make themselves better before missing another opportunity in 2013.

So, the Giants await the winner of the Cardinals-Nationals series for their opponent in the Championship Series. Nothing in the American League has been decided just yet, but seeing as there's at least one Game 5 on the horizon in the next 30 hours, we'll soon have at least one more contender.

So...About Last Night...

Dammit. I am never right with these predictions.

In what is considered, in my mind, to be two stunning upsets, the St. Louis Cardinals and Baltimore Orioles both advance to their respective league's Division Series, while the heavily favored, in my mind, Atlanta Braves and Texas Rangers are going home, ending both a third baseman's Hall of Fame career and a team's chance at a third straight World Series appearance.

I should stop making predictions altogether. That won't stop me from predicting how the rest of the playoffs will pan out, though. But first, let's see where things went wrong for the two losers.

This wasn't how it was supposed to end...then again, it never is.

First, the Cardinals and Braves. Playing in the first Wild Card game in baseball history, the defending champions came into the game the same way they came into the playoffs last year: the last team in, viewed by many as an underdog, with the odds stacked against them, playing away from home and in a field that wasn't particularly kind to them. The Braves, however, had two things on their mind: revenge for last year, and a ring for Chipper. By now, even the most casual of baseball fans know how the Cards got into the postseason to make their World Series run in 2011: by leapfrogging over the Braves on the very last day of the season, which would have been the biggest collapse in the 130-odd years Major League Baseball has been in existence, if not for the slightly larger collapse of the 2011 Red Sox. Unlike the Sox, the Bravos didn't lay down and die (or hire Kermit the Frog soundalike Bobby Valentine to manage a team full of self-entitled brats), winning the first Wild Card spot handily. Unfortunately, they did it in a season when a second Wild Card spot was introduced. And how fitting to have the team that knocked them out last year be their first opponents in the playoffs this year. Things were going fine for the home team: backup catcher David Ross, getting a rare start, blasted a two-run homer in the 2nd inning to put the Braves up 2-0. Then, the 4th inning happened. Chipper Jones, in what proved to be his final game, threw over Dan Uggla to allow Allen Craig the opportunity to score Carlos Beltran and Matt Holliday. David Freese hit a sacrifice fly to score Craig, and the game was 3-2 in favor of St. Louis. A Holliday home run in the 6th, and timely errors by Andrelton Simmons and Uggla put the game out of reach for the Braves, who lost 6-3, and they had to watch as, for the second season in a row, the Cardinals celebrated advancing in the playoffs at their expense. A crushing loss, and an unsatisfying end to Jones' legendary career, that could have been avoided.

Another offseason comes for the Rangers, leaving them to wonder why the playoffs keep ending without a title.

Something that couldn't have been avoided, though, was the Orioles barreling through the Rangers 5-1 in the AL's play-in game. The Texas boys scored once in the entire game, and it was in the first inning when Ian Kinsler scored on a sacrifice GIDP by impending free agent Josh Hamilton. The Orioles, who had already scored in the first on a J.J. Hardy single that batted in Nate McLouth, added 4 more runs over the course of the game, all of which involved Hardy, McLouth, Adam Jones or Manny Machado. Yu Darvish, making his first postseason start on this side of the Pacific, looked fatigued and unable to shut the Orioles' offense down, whereas his contemporary on the bump, Joe Saunders, looked masterful. Kind of surprising, considering Saunders' career stats in Rangers Ballpark In Arlington: according to ESPN Stats and Info, he was 0-6 with a 9.38 ERA before tonight's start. His stat line for tonight? 5.2 innings, 6 hits, 1 earned run (good for a 1.59 ERA for the game), 4 strikeouts, and a win when this team needed it most. Before the game even started, there was a sense that this was, far and away, the Rangers' game to lose: after watching the A's pass them on the very last day of the season (hmm, sounds familiar) and being relegated to a Wild Card berth for the first time in franchise history, they didn't feel like the same team that made it to the World Series the past 2 years. The Orioles, however, were refreshed, relaxed, and ready to make Baltimore proud after a 15-year streak of futility that included no postseason appearances and a 14-year run of losing seasons. Now, thanks to their play tonight, they'll not only have a chance to advance even further into October, but to finally avenge their postseason loss to the Yankees a decade and a half ago, who they'll face in the Division Series. Sometimes, things work out perfectly.

So, I pegged both Wild Card game winners incorrectly. It happens. I've been wrong once or twice in my life. In the interest of bumping that total up a little bit, here are my predictions for how the rest of the playoffs will pan out. If you're a gambler, start putting money on every team I don't predict for the Fall Classic.

AL Division Series: Orioles over Yankees, Tigers over Athletics.
NL Division Series: Nationals over Cardinals, Reds over Giants.

AL Championship Series: Tigers over Orioles.
NL Championship Series: Reds over Nationals.

World Series: Reds over Tigers in 6 games.

Basically, go ahead and pencil in both teams I picked for the World Series to lose in the first round. We'll be back after each series to analyze the results, so stay tuned.

Cage Match: Cabrera vs. Trout 2 - Electric Boogaloo.

The debate for AL MVP just won't die, as two of my good friends spent well over an hour arguing over text messages (that I was unfortunately a part of) whether Miguel Cabrera or Mike Trout deserved the award. The argument got so heated that one of them, who also writes a blog on this website, decided to write up a post illustrating his point that Cabrera deserves it more. To that end, and the end of the regular season, I have decided to write a response piece to him.

Great, here we go again. 

Here's the second-to-last paragraph of my original post on this matter, one that I believe demonstrates the point best: "According to the sabermetrics, every math geek's best friend, Trout is leading baseball with a 10.4 WAR, Wins Above Replacement, which factors in a starting player's performance and determines his worth compared to that of a replacement-level bench player. Cabrera is only at 6.7. Trout's BABIP, Batting Average on Balls In Play, is an outrageous .374, while Cabrera's is only (used very sarcastically) .328. According to UZR (Ultimate Zone Rating), a metric that determines a player's worth defensively, Trout is absolutely spectacular, rating a 13.3 in the field, whereas Cabrera is a -9.2 at third base, as if there was any more proof necessary that he's unfit for the position. When it boils right down to it, Cabrera may have Trout beat offensively (and not even by that much), but defensively, sabermetrically, and overall statistically, Trout bests his contemporary without question." Now, this isn't to say that Trout deserves it outright. Sure, the sabermetrics are on his side, and he became the first rookie to have a 30/40 season (30 home runs and 49 stolen bases, which put him one swiped bag away from claiming the very first 30/50 season in baseball history). There's much more to consider. Such as, yes, the Triple Crown.

11 players in history had achieved the batting Triple Crown before last night. However, the last one, Carl Yastrzemski of the Red Sox, did it in 1967. While some have come close, that means 4 and a half decades have passed since it's been accomplished. Until last night. Cabrera finished the regular season leading the American League in batting average (.330 to Trout's .326), home runs (44 to Josh Hamilton's and Curtis Granderson's 43), and RBIs (139 to Hamilton's 128). It goes without saying that this is one of the most difficult personal achievements in the game. It's rarer than a perfect game, harder than a 4-homer game, and requires more durability than a 50+ stolen base campaign. Cabrera had to play in nearly every single game, make every single at-bat count, and never give an inch while swinging his mighty bat. Any time he would falter, Trout, Hamilton or someone else may have been able to step in and overtake his lead. He had to sustain this extremely high level of performance not just for a few days, or a few weeks: Cabrera performed like this from the first day of the regular season all the way to the last one. That's 6 months of non-stop top-quality work. I've worked at my low-level retail job for 5 years now, and I can't say that I put together 6 months total of hard work that comes close to matching what Miggy did from April until now. And while there is plenty of precedence for a batter winning the Triple Crown but not the MVP (looking at you, Teddy Ballgame), that doesn't excuse the voters for not properly recognizing the level of difficulty it requires.

Now, with all of that said, does that alone mean that Cabrera was More Valuable than Trout? Some will say yes simply because the Tigers won their division and are in the playoffs, while the Angels are flying significantly lower than they were this offseason. There are plenty that will point to last year's NL MVP race, when Brewers left fielder Ryan Braun won the award over Dodgers center fielder Matt Kemp. Some say Braun won it with slightly inferior numbers, simply because the Brewers made the playoffs. However, the BBWAA votes on the award right before the postseason, meaning a deep run in October does not factor into the MVP race at all. So Trout missing the playoffs doesn't necessarily count him out.

Seriously, can't we just vote them both?

Guess what? It's time for everybody's favorite new segment, More Sabermetrics To List About Mike Trout And Miguel Cabrera Regarding The AL MVP Debate That Just Won't Die!

• According to ESPN Stats & Info (and the same biased friend who advised me on the last post), 65 percent of Trout's plate appearances came against pitchers with an ERA lower than 4.25, compared to only 55 percent of Cabrera's.
• Cabrera's strikeout percentage is 14.1, compared to Trout's 21.8. In addition, Miggy's walk percentage is 9.5, while Mike's is 10.5. This helps to explain why their OBPs are nearly identical (Trout leads with .399 to .393).
• However, the slugging tells a different story: Cabrera's slugging percentage is .606, which beats Trout's by 42 points (.564). You can always bring up the little matter of Trout missing nearly the entire first month of the season. You can also stop reading this blog, because we're not accepting any excuses.
• The WAR hasn't changed much, with Trout's staying at 10.4 and Cabrera rising to 7.2.
• Pitchers seem to fear Cabrera more, issuing him 17 intentional walks to Trout's 4. That alone could help Cabrera's MVP case, as opposing teams view him as a more difficult at-bat than Trout. Of course, Trout has Albert Pujols coming up shortly after him, whereas Cabrera is followed immediately by Prince Fielder. Neither get walked on purpose very often.
• Quick, what is WPA? If you guessed Win Probability Added, and I'm sure you did, you're right! What is it, you ask? Quite simply, it's the difference between the expected win total for a team, and the actual win total. +WPA accounts for how many wins a player is accountable for. Trout's is 14.03, while Cabrera's is 16.27. Neither are much better than each other, but they blow the rest of the league away.
• Conversely, -WPA shows how many negative wins (more commonly known as losses) a player can be blamed for. Trout's -WPA? -8.38. Cabrera's -WPA? -11.76. So, as valuable as both men have been, they've also hurt their respective teams in a few ways. Kinda shocking, right?
• Finally, there's Clutch. Yes, this is an actual statistic, that measures how much better or worse a player gets when a game is on the line. My father, my brother and I had a heated discussion a few months ago about whether or not a "clutch performance" could be properly quantified, and in a statement I will find myself repeating many times as I get older, you were right, Dad. According to this stat, Trout registers as a -0.53, while Cabrera is a -1.37. Believe it or not, these are not terrible stats. A negative Clutch stat is not only common, but a 0 is given to players who rise to the occasion frequently, so a positive number means a player is outrageously good when the game gets intense. Just for a frame of reference, a player who is considered to be Clutch above nearly all else right now registered a -0.24. Do I really even need to mention that it's Derek Jeter, or can you just tell?

What was my point? I honestly forgot.

Right. The race is too close to call. Hell, I keep changing my mind on who should win so frequently, I flip-flopped at least 4 times just while writing this post. The point is, there's no wrong answer. The advanced metrics may be kinder to Trout, but that doesn't necessarily make him valuable to a team that isn't playing any more games until next March. On the other hand, Cabrera's Triple Crown and the Tigers playing postseason baseball shouldn't automatically outweigh the contributions of his contemporary over the past 5 months.

What do you think? Feel free to leave a comment with your thoughts, complaints and insults.

TBF's Postseason Predictions Extravaganza - Round 1.

As the dust settles on the 2012 regular season, we finally have a concrete idea of which teams will be facing each other in the first round of this year's playoffs. Let's break each series down:

• AL Wild Card Game: Orioles at Rangers.
• TEX won regular season series 5-2
• Key Players: Josh Hamilton, Adam Jones - Hamilton's bat has been cold lately, as have Jones's feet. Hamilton only has 7 extra base hits since September started, and Jones has just 9. Both need to heat up for their teams to stand a chance.
• Position-By-Position Comparison:
• Catcher - BAL Matt Wieters, TEX Geovany Soto - Advantage BAL
• First base - BAL Mark Reynolds, TEX Mike Napoli - Advantage TEX
• Second base - BAL Ryan Flaherty, TEX Ian Kinsler - Advantage TEX
• Shortstop - BAL J.J. Hardy, TEX Elvis Andrus - Advantage TEX
• Third base - BAL Manny Machado, TEX Adrian Beltre - Advantage TEX
• Right field - BAL Nick Markakis, TEX Nelson Cruz - Advantage TEX
• Center field - BAL Adam Jones, TEX Josh Hamilton - Advantage TEX
• Left field - BAL Nate McLouth, TEX David Murphy - Advantage BAL
• Designated hitter - BAL Jim Thome, TEX Michael Young - Advantage BAL
• Rotation - BAL Chen, Gonzalez, Tillman, Saunders, Britton; TEX Darvish, Holland, Harrison, Dempster, Perez - Advantage TEX
• Closer - BAL Jim Johnson, TEX Joe Nathan - Advantage BAL
• TBF's pick: TEX def. BAL

• NL Wild Card Game: Cardinals at Braves.
• ATL won regular season series 5-1
• Key Players: Carlos Beltran, Kris Medlen - Beltran's numbers at Turner Field this year are nothing special, but he's a dangerous batter no matter where he is. However, Medlen has been on fire since becoming a starter, and tends to rise to the occasion when necessary.
• Position-By-Position Comparison:
• Catcher - STL Yadier Molina, ATL Brian McCann - Advantage STL
• First base - STL Allen Craig, ATL Freddie Freeman - Advantage ATL
• Second base - STL Skip Schumaker, ATL Dan Uggla - Advantage ATL
• Shortstop - STL Pete Kozma, ATL Andrelton Simmons - Advantage STL
• Third base - STL David Freese, ATL Chipper Jones - Advantage ATL
• Right field - STL Carlos Beltran, ATL Jason Heyward - Advantage STL
• Center field - STL Jon Jay, ATL Michael Bourn - Advantage ATL
• Left field - STL Matt Holliday, ATL Martin Prado - Advantage STL
• Rotation - STL Wainwright, Lohse, Garcia, Westbrook, Carpenter; ATL Medlen, Hudson, Hanson, Minor, Maholm - Advantage ATL
• Closer - STL Jason Motte, ATL Craig Kimbrel - Advantage ATL
• TBF's pick: ATL def. STL

• AL Division Series with Wild Card Winner: Orioles/Rangers at Yankees.
• BAL and NYY tied regular season series 9-9, NYY won regular season series against TEX 4-3
• Key Player: Alex Rodriguez - A-Rod has the distinction of being the only player to strike out in two consecutive seasons to end his team's year in the playoffs. He must regain his power swing if the Yanks hope to have a shot at title number 28.
• Position-By-Position Comparison:
• Catcher - BAL Wieters/TEX Soto, NYY Russell Martin - Advantage BAL/NYY
• First base - BAL Reynolds/TEX Napoli, NYY Mark Teixeira - Advantage NYY/NYY
• Second base - BAL Flaherty/TEX Kinsler, NYY Robinson Cano - Advantage NYY/NYY
• Shortstop - BAL Hardy/TEX Andrus, NYY Derek Jeter - Advantage NYY/NYY
• Third base - BAL Machado/TEX Beltre, NYY Alex Rodriguez - Advantage NYY/TEX
• Right field - BAL Markakis/TEX Cruz, NYY Nick Swisher - Advantage NYY/NYY
• Center field - BAL Jones/TEX Hamilton, NYY Curtis Granderson - Advantage BAL/TEX
• Left field - BAL McLouth/TEX Murphy, NYY Ichiro Suzuki - Advantage NYY/NYY
• Designated hitter - BAL Thome/TEX Young, NYY Raul Ibanez - Advantage BAL/NYY
• Rotation - NYY Sabathia, Kuroda, Hughes, Nova, Pettitte - Advantage NYY/TEX
• Closer - BAL Johnson/TEX Nathan, NYY Rafael Soriano - Advantage BAL/NYY
• TBF's pick: if BAL/NYY, NYY; if TEX/NYY, TEX

• NL Division Series with Wild Card Winner: Cardinals/Braves at Nationals.
• WAS won regular season series against STL 4-3, WAS won regular season series against ATL 10-8
• Key Player: Michael Morse - It's hard to pick just one player for the Nats, as Jayson Werth, Bryce Harper, Ryan Zimmerman and Ian Desmond all need to deliver like they have all year. But Morse has a chance to be the game-changer with one swing of his mighty bat.
• Position-By-Position Comparison:
• Catcher - STL Molina/ATL McCann, WAS Kurt Suzuki - Advantage STL/ATL
• First base - STL Craig/ATL Freeman, WAS Adam LaRoche - Advantage WAS/ATL
• Second base - STL Schumaker/ATL Uggla, WAS Danny Espinosa - Advantage WAS/WAS
• Shortstop - STL Kozma/ATL Simmons, WAS Ian Desmond - Advantage WAS/WAS
• Third base - STL Freese/ATL Jones, WAS Ryan Zimmerman - Advantage WAS/ATL
• Right field - STL Beltran/ATL Heyward, WAS Jayson Werth - Advantage STL/WAS
• Center field - STL Jay/ATL Bourn, WAS Bryce Harper - Advantage WAS/WAS
• Left field - STL Holliday/ATL Prado, WAS Michael Morse - Advantage STL/WAS
• Rotation - WAS Gonzalez, Zimmermann, Jackson, Detweiler, Lannan - Advantage WAS/ATL
• Closer - STL Motte/ATL Kimbrel, WAS Drew Storen - Advantage WAS/ATL
• TBF's pick: if STL/WAS, WAS; if ATL/WAS, ATL

• AL Division Series with Division Winners: Athletics at Tigers.
• DET won regular season series 4-3
• Key Players: Grant Balfour, Miguel Cabrera - Balfour has managed to keep the bullpen afloat while providing a strong veteran presence on a team with 17 rookies, but after winning the first batting Triple Crown in 45 years, there's seemingly no stopping Miggy.
• Position-By-Position Comparison:
• Catcher - OAK Derek Norris, DET Alex Avila - Advantage DET
• First base - OAK Cris Carter, DET Prince Fielder - Advantage DET
• Second base - OAK Cliff Pennington, DET Omar Infante - Advantage OAK
• Shortstop - OAK Stephen Drew, DET Jhonny Peralta - Advantage OAK
• Third base - OAK Josh Donaldson, DET Miguel Cabrera - Advantage DET
• Right field - OAK Josh Reddick, DET Brennan Boesch - Advantage OAK
• Center field - OAK Coco Crisp, DET Austin Jackson - Advantage OAK
• Left field - OAK Yoenis Cespedes, DET Andy Dirks - Advantage OAK
• Designated hitter - OAK Seth Smith, DET Delmon Young - Advantage OAK
• Rotation - OAK Parker, Milone, Griffin, Straily, Blackley; DET Verlander, Scherzer, Fister, Porcello, Sanchez - Advantage DET
• Closer - OAK Grant Balfour, DET Jose Valverde - Advantage DET
• TBF's pick: DET def. OAK

• NL Division Series with Division Winners: Reds at Giants.
• CIN won regular season series 4-3
• Key Players: Jonny Cueto, Buster Posey - Just missing out on 20 wins, Cueto has been on fire for the Reds' pitching rotation this year, but it will be hard to match the intensity Posey has played with after a lost 2011. Expect the dark horse MVP candidate to be extremely important to San Fran's offense.
• Position-By-Position Comparison:
• Catcher - CIN Ryan Hanigan, SFO Buster Posey - Advantage SFO
• First base - CIN Joey Votto, SFO Brandon Belt - Advantage CIN
• Second base - CIN Brandon Phillips, SFO Marco Scutaro - Advantage CIN
• Shortstop - CIN Zack Cozart, SFO Brandon Crawford - Advantage CIN
• Third base - CIN Scott Rolen, SFO Pablo Sandoval - Advantage SFO
• Right field - CIN Jay Bruce, SFO Hunter Pence - Advantage CIN
• Center field - CIN Drew Stubbs, SFO Angel Pagan - Advantage CIN
• Left field - CIN Ryan Ludwick, SFO Gregor Blanco - Advantage CIN
• Rotation - CIN Cueto, Latos, Arroyo, Bailey, Leake; SFO Cain, Bumgarner, Vogelsong, Lincecum, Zito - Advantage SFO
• Closer - CIN Aroldis Chapman, SFO Sergio Romo - Advantage CIN
• TBF's pick: CIN def. SFO