Thursday, February 23, 2012

For Better Or For Worse 2: Electric Boogaloo - NL West.

In our final FBOFW post, we'll be taking a look at the National League West Division.


Arizona Diamondbacks - These slithery desert dwellers managed to pull off a difficult feat, and had a worst-to-first season in 2011. With new manager Kirk Gibson taking over the team, they played with the heart and passion they were lacking in 2010 when they went 65-97. They ranked in the top half of all offensive and defensive stats, except for placing 19th in both batting average record and batting average allowed. Justin Upton made a strong case for his MVP credentials, with a line of .289/31/88 and an OPS of .898, all of which led the team. Miguel Montero, Chris Young and Ryan Roberts also contributed to the offense, which improved from 713 runs in 2010 (15th in MLB) to 731 in 2011 (9th), a small increase but good enough. It was the rotation, however, that was truly the secret to Arizona's success. The rotation and bullpen were ranked 28th in 2010, and jumped to 14th in 2011, behind starter Ian Kennedy, whose 21-4 record, 2.88 ERA and 198 strikeouts in 222.2 innings pitched led him to place 4th in Cy Young voting behind Philadelphia's Cliff Lee and Roy Halladay, and winner Clayton Kershaw of the Dodgers. Closer JJ Putz had a career year, posting 45 saves (career high) and 61 strikeouts in 58 innings. Considering how they dominanted this admittedly weak division last year, it was a shame to see them lose to the Brewers in their first playoff appearance in 4 years.
  • 2012 Prediction: Worst-to-first-to-first? It's possible. None of the other teams in the West really improved a whole lot this offseason, so Upton, Kennedy and the D-Backs could be looking at a repeat performance.

Colorado Rockies - Things went cold quickly in Denver this past year. With Troy Tulowitzki and Carlos Gonzalez heading up a lineup that placed 8th in all of baseball in 2010, the offense posted numbers that ranked them 11th and above in 2011. Tulo led the team with a .302 average, 30 homers and 105 RBIs, while CarGo scored 92 runs and stole 20 bases. So why did this team finish 2011 8 games under .500? The pitching. Ubaldo Jimenez, coming off a 2010 where he had a no-hitter in the first month and finished 19-8 with 214 strikeouts and a 2.88 ERA, went 6-9 with a 4.48 ERA before being traded to the Indians in late July. The rest of the rotation ranked between 23rd and 28th in defensive stats, with Jhoulys Chacin picking up the slack after Jimenez left with an 11-14 record and 150 strikeouts in 194 innings. Closer Huston Street, now of the Padres, recorded 29 saves, and the bullpen crumbled around him. This is a team that belongs in the American League: strong hitting, mediocre pitching, and a ballpark where doubles and home runs are more plentiful than games Todd Helton has missed in the past 4 years. And yet, it's the Astros that switch leagues. Go figure. The Rox picked up super utility player Michael Cuddyer and shortstop Marco Scutaro, so the lineup can become even more powerful. They also traded for Baltimore's Jeremy Guthrie, a young hurler with a ton of potential. The rotation becomes a little more sturdy, but it may not be enough.
  • 2012 Prediction: The Rockies could light Colorado on fire and propel them into another postseason a la 2007, but without a true ace on the mound, the efforts of the offense will be for naught.

Los Angeles Dodgers - Despite Frank and Jamie McCourt's divorce being played out very publicly, there are a few bright spots for the Dodgers, mainly in reigning Cy Young winner Clayton Kershaw and MVP runner-up Matt Kemp. Kershaw posted a 21-4 record (tied with Arizona's Ian Kennedy for most in the NL), 248 strikeouts (1st in the NL), and a 2.28 ERA (again, 1st in the league), just barely missing out on the Triple Crown. Because of him (I know, hard to believe Ted Lilly and Chad Billingsley weren't impact hurlers), the Dodgers ranked between 5th and 7th in all defensive stats, which is pretty hard to do with the ragtag staff they put together last year. That's a true testament to how much Kershaw means to this team...which is why they signed him to an extension recently. As far as offensively, it was the Matt Kemp Show. He fell one home run short of a 40-40 season, hit 126 RBIs and scored 115 runs, and had an OPS flirting with 1.000. Were it not for Ryan Braun, he would have been this year's NL MVP. In fact, in light of Braun's recent drug test failure, there are many calling for Kemp to be awarded the MVP, but considering Kemp has promised to go 50-50 next year, it seems he'll have another chance. The Dodgers picked up a few average pitchers in Aaron Harang and Chris Capuano, and a little infielder insurance in utility player Jerry Hairston, Jr., but as a team searching for a new owner, their identity is still undefined past Kershaw and Kemp.
  • 2012 Prediction: Even with the reigning Cy Young and unofficial MVP, the Dodgers have an uphill battle, even in what could be the weakest division in baseball.

San Diego Padres - After suffering a crushing defeat on the last day of the 2010 season by the eventual champs, the Padres followed up a surprisingly good season with a subpar 2011. They traded star first baseman Adrian Gonzalez to the Red Sox before the season began, and their offense felt the sting of the move the entire season: they finished 28th and 29th in all offensive stats, Cameron Maybin led the team with a .264 batting average and 9 home runs (yes, 9 home runs led the entire team), and Will Venable led with 44 RBI. Ryan Ludwick led the team overall with 11 bombs and 64 RBIs, but he was traded to the Pirates halfway through the year. The pitching, however, was much better: they ranked between 3rd and 10th in all defensive stats. Mat Latos led the team with a 3.47 ERA and 185 strikeouts, Aaron Harang led with 14 wins, and closer Heath Bell notched 43 saves. Normally, these would be good indications for the future of the rotation and bullpen. And they are. Except Latos, Harang and Bell now play for other teams, Latos with the Reds for Edison Volquez (career ERA of 4.65 and  33-29 record), Harang with the Dodgers and Bell with the Marlins. They traded away hot prospect Anthony Rizzo, the lynchpin of the Gonzalez trade, to the Cubs for minimal return. It's hard to tell whether the Padres are just building for the future, rebuilding, or throwing in the towel early.
  • 2012 Prediction: This team keeps trading away the only players that makes them somewhat respectable. Unless the farm is strong, the Pads are in for a continued downward slide.

San Francisco Giants - Coming off the year that the Giants won their first World Series since 1954, and their first title since moving from New York, they weren't ever expected to repeat. However, with a full season from both young catcher Buster Posey and NLCS hero Cody Ross, as well as the dynamic rotation led by Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain, and the Beard still being feared in Brian Wilson, they were supposed to contend. A season-ending injury to Posey in a collision at home plate in late May quickly dashed any hopes of a repeat, and subpar seasons from Ross, Aubrey Huff and offseason pickup Miguel Tejada led to an offense that ranked in the bottom 5 of all offensive stats (Huff led the team with a .246 batting average, Pablo Sandoval led with 23 home runs and 70 RBIs). The rotation shined, though, and they were in the top 3 of all defensive stats. The surprising leader in wins and ERA on the team was Ryan Vogelsong, a journeyman picture who made a huge splash this season (Lincecum led in strikeouts, Cain led in WHIP). And, of course, Wilson continued to dominate, recording 36 saves out of 41 opportunities. This offseason, they sent hurler Jonathan Sanchez to the Royals for young outfielder Melky Cabrera in an attempt to add some power to their anemic lineup, and swapped Andres Torres for the Mets' Angel Pagan. With Posey back and healthy, and the rotation still top-notch, they may find themselves back in the October mix.
  • 2012 Prediction: The NL West is pretty weak. If they can hold off the Diamondbacks, keep the Rockies at bay, and stop Kershaw and Kemp from making the Dodgers better...well, you never know.

2012 Projected Standings:

Arizona Diamondbacks
San Francisco Giants
Colorado Rockies
Los Angeles Dodgers
San Diego Padres

Monday, February 20, 2012

For Better Or For Worse 2: Electric Boogaloo - NL Central.

In this post, we'll be taking a look at the National League Central Division.


Chicago Cubs - Long the laughingstock of Major League Baseball because of their painfully long championship drought, the Cubbies might have made two of the best moves possible this offseason: getting rid of hothead hurler Carlos Zambrano and getting whiz kid Theo Epstein from Boston to become their new president of operations. Epstein is tasked with doing the same thing he faced in Beantown: bring a World Series title to a long-suffering city. He's got his work cut out for him: 2011 was a regular season for the Cubs, which means it was bad. Their offense placed between 13th and 20th in the stats, with the most production coming from Starlin Castro (led the team with a .307 batting average and 91 runs scored), Carlos Pena (28 homers, now back with the Rays), and Aramis Ramirez (93 RBIs and an .871 OPS, now playing for the Brewers). Aside from aging outfielder Alfonso Soriano, no one provided anywhere near the numbers these 3 posted, and they would have been platooned or benched on nearly any other team. Matt Garza led the defense with 10 wins, 197 strikeouts and a 3.32 ERA, but the Cubs ranked in the low to mid-20s in all defensive stats. Carlos Marmol saved 34 games, but other than that, the bullpen faltered as well. While they picked up a few castoffs (Paul Maholm and Chris Volstad for pitching, David DeJesus and Anthony Rizzo for offense), it'll be a while before Epstein leads another World Series parade, if ever.
  • 2012 Prediction: The Cubs are in full-blown rebuilding mode. Don't expect much improvement this year. Maybe down the road, they'll contend again, but not next season.

Cincinnati Reds - With the top two teams in the division both losing the players and managers that made them so dominant over the last 5 years, the window of opportunity for the Reds may be growing rapidly. After surprising everyone by winning the division in 2010, they finished a meager 2 games under .500 in 2011, and had to watch the two teams that beat them out face each other in the LCS. It wasn't all bad: first baseman Joey Votto make a strong showing (.309/29/103, leading the team in all those stats except for home runs) and is now considered the top first baseman in the division, young right fielder Jay Bruce led in home runs with 32 and could have been in the running for MVP had he not faltered down the stretch, and second baseman Brandon Phillips won his 3rd career Gold Glove and first career Silver Slugger. Both the offense and defense were quite average, ranking between 9th and 20th in all stats. The rotation and bullpen weren't very solid, with Mike Leake leading the team with 12 wins, a 3.86 ERA and only 118 strikeouts, and Francisco Cordero (now of the Blue Jays) recorded 37 saves, but with the addition of Mat Latos from the Padres (and the subtraction of Edison Volquez in the same trade), the pitching should definitely improve. If the Reds are going to make a splash, this is the year to do it: Votto walks after 2013, and it'd be a lot easier to keep him in Cincy if he has a ring.
  • 2012 Prediction: Who knows? They were the team to beat heading into last season, and, well, they got beat frequently. They should do better this year without Pujols and Fielder muddying the waters.

Houston Astros - Nothing good is usually expected out of the Astros. They have no big players (unless you count Carlos Lee, and unsurprisingly, nobody really does), and the good ones they did have (Lance Berkman, Roy Oswalt, Hunter Pence and Michael Bourn) were all traded in the past 2 years. However, they reached a new low of mediocrity in 2011 with the franchise's first 100-loss season. Considering how badly they've stunk since their Cinderella run to the Series in 2005, it's almost surprising that they haven't dipped to that awful plateau before now. They ranked in the mid to low 20s in every stat, offensive or defensive, except somehow ranking 10th in batting average. Lee led the club in every offensive stat...with a .275/18/94 line, numbers that would have made him a borderline bench rider on nearly any other team. Wandy Rodriguez led the rotation with an 11-11 record and 3.49 ERA, and his name has come up in trade talks with multiple teams, in true Astros fashion. Closer Mark Melancon notched 20 saves before being traded to the Red Sox this offseason. Next year, it will be hard to recognize anyone on the team, aside from pickups Jed Lowrie and Jack Cust, and rookies Jose Altuve and Jimmy Paredes look promising. The team is moving to the American League West after this year, which will necessitate an interleague game being played every day of the season, and it may be the boost they'll need to spring back to prominence...or they'll continue to crash and burn.
  • 2012 Prediction: Come on. They probably won't dip to 100 losses again, but they won't touch .500 either, unless you expect some big market team to send their star player in a display of pity.

Milwaukee Brewers - The Brew Crew entered Beast Mode this past season and managed to win their first playoff berth as a member of the National League (they faced the Cardinals in the 1982 World Series, but were in the American League until 1998). With a 96-66 record, ranking in the top 10 of all defensive stats and top 11 of offensive ones, and arguably the most dominant 1-2 punch in the heart of their lineup, they were tearing down opponents left and right...until the fated postseason rematch with the Cards, where they lost in 6. Now, they've lost Prince Fielder, and reigning MVP Ryan Braun is still looking at a 50-game suspension. Those two led the team in batting average, home runs, RBIs, runs scored and OPS; no one else came close to their level of production. And, if you were wondering, filling those roster spots with newly acquired shortstop Alex Gonzalez and third baseman Aramis Ramirez ISN'T going to replace the combined 71 homers, 231 RBIs and 204 runs those monsters gave the Brewers. Their rotation, one of the most solid ones in the league, might soon follow suit: Zack Greinke, who was a perfect 9-0 at Miller Park, will be a free agent after this season, and Yovani Gallardo and Shaun Marcum have yet to sign extensions. The three of them combined for 46 wins, 566 strikeouts and an average of 3.54 ERA. While closer John Axford, who posted 46 saves, is locked down for a while, the rotation could be as dismantled as the lineup.
  • 2012 Prediction: They lost Fielder. They might lose Braun for a third of the season. They could lose Greinke and Marcum after this year. Good thing Milwaukee's noted for its beer, the fans will be in dire need of it.

Pittsburgh Pirates - For a team named after a kind of people who take what they want and strike fear in the hearts of many, the Pirates don't shiver many timbers. 2011 saw their 19th straight losing season, longest in American professional sports. Regardless, they were in the mix atop the division until about mid-July, the latest they've been in contention in a season since the early 90s. Centerfielder Andrew McCutchen, considered one of the best in the game, was snubbed by the All-Star voting committee, but only finished .259/23/89 (which, sadly, led the team aside from batting average). Somehow, the pitching staff, headed by offseason pickup Kevin Correia, reached 17th in ERA, but ranked in the high 20s in every other offensive and defensive stat. Closer Joel Hanrahan, the sole All-Star on the team, had 40 saves, but he was the only highlight of the bullpen. While they had a winning record until late July, a 19-inning game against the Braves that ended with a botched out call at home plate that gave Atlanta the win seemed to sap all the Bucs' momentum, and they finished with a 72-90 record, continuing their recent reputation for mediocrity. Funny how baseball works sometimes. They picked up hurler Erik Bedard and reacquired outfielder Nate McLouth, but something gives us the impression that the Pirates still won't be a contender next year.
  • 2012 Prediction: Hopefully, the Buccos can somehow capture lightning in a bottle and make a more sustainable run than the one they had last year. But it seems, for now, they're doomed for another losing season.

St. Louis Cardinals - By now, we all know the story of the 2011 Cardinals. They were 10.5 games behind the Braves for the Wild Card in late August, and were 3 out with 5 to play. They leapfrogged over the Braves on the last day of the regular season, and managed to topple the heavily favored Phillies and now hated rival Brewers in the division and championship series. Then, in the World Series against the Rangers, they scrapped and fought with Texas to become victorious in 7 games in what is already considered one of the best World Series in history. So...now what? They lost legendary manager Tony LaRussa to retirement, star first baseman Albert Pujols to the Angels, and celebrated pitching coach Dave Duncan to his wife's cancer. While many pieces of the 2011 champs, such as Lance Berkman, David Freese, Chris Carpenter, Matt Holliday and Jason Motte, still remain, and with the pickup of Carlos Beltran to bolster the lineup, and the expected return of ace Adam Wainwright after he missed the entire season recovering from Tommy John surgery, the question is, can the Cardinals remain a contender with Berkman expected to be the full-time first baseman and rookie manager Mike Matheny replacing LaRussa at the helm? Will Wainwright rebound, or will he still feel the pain of surgery? Can Carpenter, Holliday, Freese and catcher Yadier Molina keep the team afloat? All signs point to yes, but baseball is a tricky game.
  • 2012 Prediction: The Card aren't poised to repeat, but they can still make the postseason with the lineup and rotation they have. As long as they don't succumb to injury, anything could happen.

2012 Projected Standings:

Cincinnati Reds
St. Louis Cardinals
Milwaukee Brewers
Pittsburgh Pirates
Chicago Cubs
Houston Astros

Friday, February 17, 2012

For Better Or For Worse 2: Electric Boogaloo - NL East.

In this post, we'll be taking a look at the National League East Division.


Atlanta Braves - Ahh, the Braves. My good old hometown team (that I don't really root for). While some of their division rivals were making blockbuster trades and signings, the Braves stood pat with what they have. Their biggest move so far was addition by subtraction: they shipped veteran starter Derek Lowe to Cleveland for a double-A pitcher. 2011 saw them complete the second biggest collapse in history, overshadowed only by the Red Sox' more epic collapse. As a result, the Cardinals leapfrogged the Braves into the playoffs, and, well, you know the rest. They had a great midseason pickup in Michael Bourn from the Astros, who at the time had only 9 stolen bases less by himself than the entire team. Rookie first baseman Freddie Freeman and rookie closer Craig Kimbrel came in 2nd and 1st respectively for Rookie of the Year. Dan Uggla, traded from the Marlins in the offseason, had a terrible start but put together a 33-game hit streak down the stretch. And, as always, Chipper Jones continued to contribute to the team as he's done for the better part of 2 decades. While they ranked below average in offense, the rotation and bullpen did quite well for being in the same division as Philadelphia. All-Star catcher Brian McCann missed some playing time, only appearing in 128 games, so when he fully recovers from injury, it probably won't be Uggla leading the team in homers and RBIs with 32 and 86.
  • 2012 Prediction: Even though they stood by this offseason without making any huge deals, the Braves still have a good, solid core of young players who may not each be good at everything, but every one of them can do something for the team.

Miami Marlins - Even with a new logo and uniform that would make even Ozzie Smith, who used to do backflips on the field, cringe from the flashiness, the Marlins have been dazzling everyone this offseason. After an abysmal 2011 where they started out strong but finished 9 games under .500 and ranked in the middle of the pack in both offensive and defensive stats, they went out and signed speedy shortstop Jose Reyes (who won the NL batting crown with a .337 average last season), consistent hurler Mark Buehrle (who finished his 10th year straight with 10 or more victories), and dominant closer Heath Bell (137 saves in the past 3 seasons, most in MLB in that time period) to exorbitant contracts, as well as acquired noted hothead pitcher Carlos Zambrano, in the hopes that adding these players to a roster that includes Mike Stanton, Hanley Ramirez, Logan Morrison, Josh Johnson and Ricky Nolasco will propel them into deeper waters in the East. While they've got unlimited potential, it's not injuries, weather or their ballpark that could hurt them...it's their attitude. HanRam has whined about having to move to 3rd base to accomodate Reyes, LoMo is notorious for his excessive usage of Twitter, Big Z was suspended multiple times by the Cubs for his anger, and new manager Ozzie Guillen is noted for speaking his mind, often too brashly. It doesn't matter how many long shots Stanton hits, if the team can't come together as a unit to win.
  • 2012 Prediction: Again, if they can lay their giant personalities and egos to the side, this team could make some serious noise in the East. Stanton is quickly becoming an MVP threat, and a healthy Johnson leading the rotation is scary.

New York Mets - The Amazin's have become anything but. Even though they finished 4th ahead of the Marlins, they also lost their best player, Reyes, to the same team. Because of Reyes (and limited stints from injured star third baseman David Wright), they were 6th in the league in batting average and 12th in runs, which is pretty good for a team that had 2 or 3 recognizable names. Reyes and Carlos Beltran, traded to the Giants midseason and signing with the Cardinals this offseason, led the team in every offensive stat. The pitching was worse, ranking in the bottom 10 of all defensive stats except quality starts (18th place). Rookie Dillon Gee led the team in wins with 13, and Francisco Rodriguez, who was traded to the Brewers during the All-Star break, finished the year as the leader of the Mets in saves. It says something about your organization when you look at the team leaderboards at the end of the year and realize that nearly every name on the list is now plastered above a locker in someone else's clubhouse. This team makes the Pirates, who have had 19 straight losing seasons, look like they can turn things around. Now, maybe the front office, with new manager Terry Collins and new general manager Sandy Alderson, were a little distracted with the ongoing financial crisis (owner Fred Wilpon was in business with massive con man Bernie Madoff), but even with the money they had flowing in, they couldn't put a competitive team on the field.
  • 2012 Prediction: It's not looking any better next year for the Mets. They couldn't get anything done with Reyes and Beltran, so Ruben Tejada and Andres Torres probably won't duplicate the production at those positions. The Mets will probably fall down to Earth pretty hard in 2012.

Philadelphia Phillies - This was supposed to be the Phillies' year. The stars aligned when Cliff Lee spurned the advances of the Yankees and Rangers in the 2010 offseason and resigned in the City of Brotherly Love to create what many called one of the greatest rotations in recent memory, maybe even history. Lee, then-reigning Cy Young winner Roy Halladay, former World Series MVP Cole Hamels, and tagalong Roy Oswalt were touted as the Four Aces, and they seemed unbeatable. Aside from Oswalt, they almost were. They ranked 1st in every defensive stat except opponents' batting average, where they plummeted to 3rd place. Halladay led the team in wins, Lee in strikeouts, Hamels in WHIP, and closer Ryan Madsen led them with 32 saves from the bullpen after Brad Lidge was injured. Unfortunately, the offense wasn't as superhuman as the pitching, and they ranked between 11th and 17th in all offensive stats. Second baseman Chase Utley missed significant time, and hit only .259/11/44 in 103 games. While first baseman Ryan Howard hit 33 homers and 116 RBIs, and centerfielder Shane Victorino led the team with a .279 average, it was midseason acquisition, right fielder Hunter Pence, that added some pop, going .328/11/35 in 54 games with the Phils. Even though they were heavily favored to win the pennant, they fell short in 5 games in the LDS to the eventual champs. Still, winning 102 games with an average offense speaks volumes about this team.
  • 2012 Prediction: Even with the Marlins, Braves and Nationals all vying for the division title, it'll be difficult to wrestle it away from the Phils. A full year of Pence, a healthy Utley, a replenished bench with Ty Wigginton and Jim Thome, and the remaining Three Aces will be a force to be reckoned with.

Washington Nationals - After years of futility of baseball teams in the nation's capitals, the offseason moves made by the Nats have given them a fighting chance. After going 80-81 last season (damn you, inclement weather!), they added young hurler Gio Gonzalez to their rotation that already includes Stephen Strasburg and Jordan Zimmermann, the three of whom are expected to give Philly's Three Aces a run for their money. They also signed Edwin Jackson to a 1-year deal to shore the rotation up further, which is good, since they ranked average to low in the defensive stats other than 7th in ERA. Closer Drew Storen was a highlight, as he recorded 43 saves, which was tied for 6th with Heath Bell in all of MLB. They ranked in the high 20s in offensive stats as well, even with some young sluggers on the team. Phenom first baseman Michael Morse led the team in every offensive stat, and was in the top 10 in the National League in the same stats. Catcher Wilson Ramos, second baseman Ian Desmond and third baseman Ryan Zimmerman all hit for power, and showed flashes of brilliance that spell good things for the future. The only part of the team that fans might not be crazy about was the new $126 million man, Jayson Werth. In his first year back out of Philadelphia, he hit .232/20/58. If top prospect Bryce Harper follows the timeline the organization has put him on, he might be able to cover some of the missed production from Werth.
  • 2012 Prediction: There's a high chance that next year's NL Cy Young and Rookie of the Year will be Stephen Strasburg and Bryce Harper. While 2012 is more a building block for the future than a year they'll seriously contend, the Nationals are clearly poised to strike soon.

2012 Projected Standings:

Philadelphia Phillies
Miami Marlins
Atlanta Braves
Washington Nationals
New York Mets

Tuesday, February 14, 2012

For Better Or For Worse 2: Electric Boogaloo - AL West.

In this post, we'll be taking a look at the American League West Division.


Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim - It was definitely an angelic offseason for the Halos. They not only picked up starter C.J. Wilson from the Rangers, they also inked first baseman/greatest player of this generation Albert Pujols to a 10-year deal, almost solidifying that the rest of his career will be spent in sunny Anaheim. While these moves definitely improve the Angels, it still seems like they're a little far from being real contenders in 2012. Sure, Pujols in any lineup guarantees some high-scoring games, but he has no real protection in the lineup. Torii Hunter is slowly declining, Erick Aybar and Howie Kendrick are fast on the basepaths but have little power, rookies Mark Trumbo and Mike Trout could make a splash but will probably see limited playing time, and incumbent bench rider Kendrys Morales is still recovering from a broken leg sustained in 2010. The rotation, already shored up by Cy Young runner up Jered Weaver, Dan Haren and Ervin Santana (who combined to rank the Angels no lower than 12th in any defensive stat), got more sturdy with Wilson, but the bullpen is still weak. Closer Jordan Walden led a bullpen that blew 25 saves, 3rd in MLB last year and 1st in the AL. However, many are predicting that the addition of Pujols and Wilson is exactly the jump start that the Angels need to reclaim their dominance of their division.
  • 2012 Prediction: Hard to argue against the chances of any team with the single best overall player of the past decade. However, they'll have to act fast, as Pujols is beginning to decline, and when he goes down, the offensive output is likely to go with him for a while.

Oakland Athletics - It's unfortunate, but Moneyball did much better in theatres this summer than it did in practice at Oakland Coliseum. Billy Beane probably would love to switch places with the man who portrayed him on the big screen, and not only because of Angelina Jolie. Known for their heavy hitters in past decades, the A's put up terrible offensive stats in 2011, with Josh Willingham (who know plays for the Twins) leading in home runs, runs scored, and RBIs, while Cliff Pennington won the batting average crown for the team...with a .264 average. At least the pitching was a little better, with Gio Gonzalez, Trevor Cahill and Guillermo Moscoso combining for 36 wins, 418 strikeouts and an ERA in the mid-3s, and closer Andrew Bailey did his best to hold the bullpen together with 24 saves out of 26 opportunities. Yes, the pitching for this team looks like it could be great for the next few years, as they're all young and talented. The only problem? All four of those pitchers play for different teams now (Gonzalez is a National, Cahill is a Diamondback, Guillermo is a Rockie, and Bailey is a Red Sock). They added Cuban defector Yoenis Cespedes, which might boost the offense, but not as much as they need. We here at TBF understand the Oakland front office's desire to keep their payroll low, and to further the implementation of the practices glorified in the Academy Award-nominated movie based off the best-selling book, but when you get outdone by your own team's history in a certain year, it's time to shake things up, as Brad Pitt so eloquently put it as Beane.
  • 2012 Prediction: At least the Astros are moving to this division in 2013, so the A's can be 3rd out of 5 teams instead of 4.

Seattle Mariners - Just gotta get this one out of the way: when the hell is that caterpillar on manager Eric Wedge's face going to turn into a butterfly? All right, joking aside, the Mariners are continuing their slide into mediocrity. Admittedly, there was no expected improvement for them from their atrocious 2010, but just when the fans in Washington though their beloved ballplayers couldn't possibly combine for a worst season, the M's went out there and proved them all wrong. Even though they won 6 more games than '10, their offense was downright zapped, ranking dead last in every single offensive stat and scoring only 556 runs, last in the league by 14 behind San Francisco. Celebrated slugger Ichiro Suzuki posted the first season since he crossed the Pacific where he didn't get at least 200 hits (184) or hit .300 (.272). Catcher Miguel Olivo led the team in home runs and RBIs with 19 and 62 respectively. Chone Figgins, in his first season back at 3rd base, hit .196 in 81 games. For that matter, only 5 players on the roster appeared in more than 100 games. The pitching, led by then-reigning Cy Young winner Felix Hernandez and rookie phenom Michael Pineda (now playing for the Yankees) fared a little better, ranking in the top half of defensive stats, with King Felix leading in wins (14) and ERA (3.47), and closer Brandon League led the bullpen with a respectable 37 saves, but it's hard for a semi-effective rotation to do any good when the bats and defense aren't there.
  • 2012 Prediction: Even with the addition of Jesus Montero from the Yankees in the Pineda trade, the offense still has little to no power, and the rotation is quickly following suit. The 17-game losing streak they established last year might be broken in 2012.

Texas Rangers - The Rangers are a funny team. Prior to 2010, they had never won a postseason series in history, and had only one win in October to their name. Now, they're back-to-back American League pennant winners and have played, albeit in losing efforts, in the last 2 World Series. Why the sudden turnaround? Well, for starters, everything. They ranked in the top 5 in offensive stats, even claiming 1st place in batting average. Michael Young and Mike Napoli batted well over .300, with Josh Hamilton, Elvis Andrus and offseason pickup Adrian Beltre batting quite close to it. Ian Kinsler had his second career 30-30 season, and he and Andrus alone stole 67 bases. Not only was the speed and power there for the Rangers, but the pitching was excellent as well, with converted reliever C.J. Wilson (now an Angel) going 16-9 with a 2.94 ERA and 206 strikeouts in his second year as a starter. The bullpen, which saw the addition of Koji Uehara from the Orioles and Mike Adams from the Padres midseason, supported young closer Neftali Feliz, who recorded 32 saves, a drop from his then-record 40 saves as a rookie in 2010 but still impressive. With the pickup of Japanese hurler Yu Darvish, the rotation should get even more dominant. This is one of the rare teams in baseball that always plays with heart, passion and fire, even during rough patches, and has become one of the most formidable organizations in the game. The question is, will they be able to stave off the Angels, who now have their old ace and Albert Pujols?
  • 2012 Prediction: Yes. At least, this writer believes so. The Angels have a good rotation, but their lineup is still weak compared to the Rangers. This is a team that is cohesive and incredibly strong in every aspect, so they should be able to hold their own in the division.

2012 Projected Standings:

Texas Rangers
Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
Oakland Athletics
Seattle Mariners

Saturday, February 11, 2012

For Better Or For Worse 2: Electric Boogaloo - AL Central.

In this post, we'll be taking a look at the American League Central Division.


Chicago White Sox - 2011 was a year South Side Chicago fans would love to forget. Poised to win the division at the outset of the season, the White Sox allowed the Tigers and Indians to surpass them handily, while barely putting up a fight. While first baseman Paul Konerko and outfielder Carlos Quentin (now a Padre) tried their hardest to boost the offense (combined for 55 homers and 182 RBIs), designated hitter/overall disappointment Adam Dunn and outfielder/saboteur Alex Rios (24 home runs and 86 RBIs) dragged them down enough to place the Sox no higher than 15th in any offensive category. The pitching wasn't much better: Mark Buehrle (now a Marlin) led the team with 13 wins and a 3.59 ERA, but Jake Peavy continued his slide into mediocrity and was unable to overcome his injuries to pitch effectively. The bullpen was boosted slightly by the addition of Jason Frasor, who was traded from the Blue Jays for Edwin Jackson, but they managed to blow more saves than they recorded, with the only reliever who had more than 8 saves, Sergio Santos, was traded to the Jays a few weeks ago. For whatever reason, it looks like the White Sox have traded away most of the players that made 2011 give fans any hope. If Konerko can stay healthy and produce the numbers he always does, and if Gordon Beckham, A.J. Pierzynski, Dunn, Rios, Peavy and the bullpen can all have bounce-back years, the White Sox could possibly contend again. That's a lot of unanswered questions, though.
  • 2012 Prediction: It's all there for the Sox. The potential to return to the playoffs is within their reach, even with manager Ozzie Guillen leaving for Miami and new manager Robin Ventura being unproven. They just have to get healthy, find their stride and keep it.

Cleveland Indians - While no one expected the Indians to have a very good season, they managed to lead the division for most of the first half, before falling behind the Tigers. They sorely missed the production of Grady Sizemore and Shin-Soo Choo, who didn't play an entire season between the two of them, and adding Kosuke Fukudome from the Cubs midseason did little to help. Catcher/first baseman Carlos Santana hit with some power, but aside from Asdrubal Cabrera (who won his first Silver Slugger and garnered his first All-Star apperance), he received little to no help. The rotation, led by Justin Masterson (the only one to post a winning record and an ERA under 4), also failed, even after adding one-time phenom Ubaldo Jimenez from the Rockies before the trade deadline. The bullpen was somewhat strong, led by closer Chris Perez, who recorded 36 saves, but otherwise couldn't hold up. The offseason has been just as disappointing as the regular season was: they traded for Derek Lowe from the Braves, which would have been a great move 7 years ago. For a team that didn't crack the top half of any statistic, either offensive or defensive, there's a lot of work that still needs to be done. Rookies Lonnie Chisenhall and Jason Kipnis showed flashes of brilliance that could make the infield a little more powerful, but with the recent scandal with pitcher Fausto Carmona (real name Roberto Heredia), the Indians might not want to come out of their teepees to see the 2012 season.
  • 2012 Prediction: They surprised everyone by leading the division early in 2011, but it stands to reason that they won't easily be able to duplicate that. They've got a long way to go until they're competitive again.

Detroit Tigers - There is some real sweet music that will be playing in Motown this summer, and the man singing the loudest will be doing so to the tune of $214 million over the next 9 years. The Tigers were a scary team last year, and have been a tough team to beat since 2006 when they made a World Series appearance. But if they weren't dominant enough with a lineup led by perennial Triple Crown threat Miguel Cabrera, Detroit got a little hitting insurance in Prince Fielder, who signed a mega deal that will ensure he spends the entirety of his prime in the same ballpark that his now-estranged father used to smash homers in himself. While designated hitter Victor Martinez will be out for the year with a torn ACL, youngsters Alex Avila and Austin Jackson appear poised to have breakout seasons, and the rotation, headed up by Triple Crown, Cy Young and MVP winner Justin "Credible" Verlander (who only went 24-5 with a 2.40 ERA, 250 strikeouts and 251, all of which only led all of baseball...no big deal), skews very young and figures to only get better. While the bullpen is somewhat questionable (can you believe that hurlers like Phil Coke and Al Albuquerque may NOT be realiable?), they have a Mo-like closer in Jose Valverde, who just put the finishing touches on a perfect season, converting 49 save opportunities into saves. With the Twins and White Sox faltering, and the Indians and Royals still in rebuilding mode, the Tigers can and will pounce on this division.
  • 2012 Prediction: Need I say more? PRINCE FIELDER, MIGUEL CABRERA, JUSTIN VERLANDER AND JOSE VALVERDE ARE ALL PLAYING FOR THE SAME TEAM.

Kansas City Royals - Most teams trot out their Triple-A players in late August and September, whether they're resting their regulars for the playoffs or realize that, unlike Yogi Berra said, it's over before it's over. The Royals, however, might be the one team that's genuinely excited to write out a lineup with kids that have come straight from the farm. Would you believe that they were in the top 10 of every offensive statistic, even reaching as high as 4th in batting average? Well, believe it. Eric Hosmer, Mike Moustakas, Billy Butler, Alcides Escobar, Lorenzo Cain and Alex Gordon are all highly-rated prospects who got to show off a little bit of muscle in 2011, and it stands to reason that all these future All-Stars will bring the Royals back to prominence. In fact, it's already being predicted that they have a legitimate shot to win the pennant...in 2015, admittedly, but good things come to those who wait. Their rotation, always a weakness and especially suffering from the loss of Zack Greinke, ranked in the bottom 5 of all of MLB, but they added former Dodgers closer Jonathan Broxton to help shore up the bullpen behind closer Joakim Soria, and traded Melky Cabrera to San Francisco for Jonathan Sanchez, who is an effective hurler that can help the Royals climb just a little in the standings. While they probably won't be able to overtake the Tigers this season, it's completely feasible that they could finally begin the long climb out of the AL Central cellar, now occupied by the next team on our list. Even though Detroit has a new prince, there's still some Royalty to contend with in Kansas City.
  • 2012 Prediction: It's hard to imagine that a lineup that is this young and powerful will falter enough to cause this team to rank any lower than 3rd place. But 2012 isn't necessarily the year the Royals are shooting for; this is simply practice for the next 8-10 years.

Minnesota Twins - Just like their division rival White Sox, 2011 is a season that many in St. Paul would like to pretend never happened. With a first baseman that still seems dazed from a concussion sustained a year and a half prior, a catcher that can't crouch for long periods of time, and a lineup completely devoid of any power without the aforementioned two, the Twins ranked no higher than 21st in any offensive stat, and were 28th in slugging. Joe Mauer, in the first year of an 8-year/$184 million extension, played in 82 games, posted a mediocre .287/3/30, and saw 18 games at first base (and even had a start in right field). The player Mauer was covering at first, Justin Morneau, played in just 69 games, hit .227/4/30, and put up the lowest OPS of his career. Shortstop Tsuyoshi Nishioka, a pickup from Japan's Chiba Lotte Marines this offseason, played in 68 games and put up absolutely unforgivable numbers. Michael Cuddyer, now with the Rockies, led the team in batting average (.284) and home runs (20). The rotation and bullpen were equally atrocious, and ranked in the bottom 3 of every defensive stat except for quality starts (22nd). Carl Pavano, who has largely been a bust since his time in pinstripes, led the team with a 4.30 ERA and 9 wins, not to mention the 13 losses he allowed while only recording 102 strikeouts. Closer Matt Capps led the bullpen with 15 saves. Joe Nathan, who know plays for the Rangers, posted 14 saves, in 20 innings less and with 9 strikeouts more than Capps. Hoo boy.
  • 2012 Prediction: Uhh...huh. Hmm. When does the Vikings' season start? Are the Bucks doing well? 

2012 Projected Standings:

Detroit Tigers
Kansas City Royals
Cleveland Indians
Chicago White Sox
Minnesota Twins

Wednesday, February 8, 2012

For Better Or For Worse 2: Electric Boogaloo - AL East.

For the second year, we're beginning our analysis of all 30 teams before the new season begins. Let's kick it off with the American League East Division.


Baltimore Orioles - Things just keep looking worse for the Orioles. There's no easy way to put it. After 3 straight years of win totals in the 60s and loss totals in the 90s, it seems that their wings have been clipped. A full season of Buck Showalter (who went 34-23 in his shortened stint at the end of the 2010 season) was hoped to be enough to jumpstart an infield that had a lot of potential, as well as a bullpen that was supposed to be the same, but they imploded early in the season and never regained their footing. Veterans Vladimir Guerrero, Mark Reynolds and Nick Markakis led the team in all offensive categories with respectable stats, but the other bats seemed cold and dead, which led to the O's offense being ranked in the middle of the pack throughout MLB. Their starting pitching did little to stop the pain, with Jeremy Guthrie (now of the Rockies) leading the team, LEADING the team, with a 4.33 ERA and 130 strikeouts. Zach Britton had the most wins of any Orioles pitcher last year...with 11. And the saves leader, Kevin Gregg, recorded only 22 saves. In the heat of July, they traded first baseman Derrek Lee and setup man Koji Uehara to Pittsburgh and Texas, which would have been a bad move had they been contending, but the season was too far gone at that point. Although they managed to ruin the Red Sox's season on the last day of the regular season, their role as spoiler is not one they should be content with.
  • 2012 Prediction: Even with celebrated general manager Dan Duqette now at the helm, look for the Orioles to continue their slide into mediocrity. While they could always repeat themselves as spoiler, or even possibly reach 4th or 3rd in the division, it seems hopeless for a while.

Boston Red Sox - The bigger they are, the harder they fall, huh? It seemed written in the stars (or in Terry Francona's lineup card) that the Red Sox were destined to completely dominate everyone this year. The playoffs were a given, and a 3rd World Series title in 8 years seemed all but won. And as we watched (and most of us cheered with joy), they pulled off...the biggest collapse in documented baseball history. With new sluggers Adrian Gonzalez (MVP candidate) and Carl Crawford (who had his worst offensive season in his career) in tow, they had the most powerful offense...on paper. But even their stacked lineup and equally amazing rotation couldn't stop what happened on September 28th, when the Sox became the first team IN HISTORY to have a 9-game lead in September and COMPLETELY lose it by going 7-20 in the month, 90-72 for the year, and 1 game behind the Tampa Bay Rays, who had been trailing the Sox all season. The Rays won the AL Wild Card as a result, and the $#!^ started flying. Francona and Theo Epstein, two of the most beloved men in the organization to this point, quit and went to the Cubs respectively. Fan favorite John Lackey cried and whined about the reports that he, Josh Beckett and Jon Lester ate fried chicken and played video games in the clubhouse DURING CRUCIAL GAMES. While they still have most of the team that was supposed to be the best ever, 2011 is a year everyone in Boston would love to forget, and one I'll remember fondly.
  • 2012 Prediction: The Red Sox will probably win the division or the Wild Card. As much as I hate them, this collapse was something extremely out of the ordinary, and if they don't get sidelined by injuries and tabloid drama, they probably will put everything together and make a serious postseason run.

New York Yankees - As much satisfaction as I felt that the Red Sox collapsed, I felt even prouder because the Yankees, despite their 3-15 record against Boston in 2011, won the division almost handily. While the Sox watched the most magnificent implosion of a team in history, the Yankees, who were supposedly going to finish in 3rd place behind them and the Rays, coasted to winning the division, with some impressive milestones on the way. Against the Athletics in late August, they became the first team to hit 3 grand slams in one game, as Robinson Cano, Curtis Granderson and Russell Martin (all All-Stars last year) each went deep with the bases loaded. Mariano Rivera, already considered to be the greatest closer of all time, solidified his legacy by passing Trevor Hoffman as the all-time saves leader. And Derek Jeter made sure that everyone remembered that he was still the captain by smashing a home run for his 3,000th career hit. Not too shabby for a team that wasn't supposed to amount to much in 2011. Unfortunately, their great run ended in a 5-game defeat in the ALDS by the Tigers, during which the Yanks basically laid down and died. While they managed to resign ace CC Sabathia after he opted out of his contract, they also acquired Michael Pineda from the Mariners and signed Hiroki Kuroda, heavily strengthening the one thing that didn't really work this past year: the anemic starting rotation. With the recent retirement of longtime catcher Jorge Posada, and Alex Rodriguez always being more of a liability than an asset, 2012 holds a lot of questions.
  • 2012 Prediction: It's the Yankees. You can't ever count them out. They could be 8 games out in August and come back to win the division, or 10 games ahead in July and just miss the Wild Card. There's no telling this year.

Tampa Bay Rays - For a team with the second lowest payroll in the game, the Rays are a funny club. They're one of the newest teams in the game, but they play in an old school way. What that means is that they don't go out and buy big free agents. They draft well, they develop their young talent well, they sign veterans with a little left in the tank to 1-year deals, and it's turned them into one of the most dangerous teams in the AL East, the American League, and MLB overall. 2011 saw them make their 3rd postseason appearance in 4 years, after coming back from 9 games down to start September and beating the Red Sox out for the wild card in what's already being called the single greatest night of baseball ever. Rookie Matt Moore delivered a gem in game 1 of the LDS, and even though they were knocked out in the first round of the playoffs, the future looks awfully bright for this team. Evan Longoria, B.J. Upton and Ben Zobrist lead a lineup that has potential to be reminiscent of a Murderer's Row (if they can all stay healthy), and Rookie of the Year winner Jeremy Hellickson heads up a rotation that ranked in the top 3 of all of MLB in every category except ERA. Their bullpen, even after losing effective closer Rafael Soriano after the 2010 season, is quite possibly the most solid collection of relievers in the game. It's rare that a team can lose so many stars after one season (Soriano, Carl Crawford, Carlos Pena, Joaquin Benoit, and Matt Garza all play for other teams now), and still be powerful enough to make the playoffs the next year.
  • 2012 Prediction: They most likely won't come back in spectacular fashion like they did this year, but the chances are good that, behind the immense amount of youthful talent already at the major league level and more waiting in the minors, the Rays will seriously contend again.

Toronto Blue Jays - The only MLB team north of the border seems to hover around the middle of the AL East standings in recent memory. 2011 was no exception. Even behind one-man wrecking crew Jose Bautista, who led the majors in homers for the second consecutive year with 43, rookie third baseman Brett Lawrie showing true signs of offensive and defensive greatness, and a rotation whose oldest starter, Ricky Romero, is 27, they couldn't do much to get over .500. Considering they're stuck in a division with the Yankees, Red Sox and Rays, even that is an accomplishment. However, they always seem ready to strike at any moment that those 3 powerhouses seem to be faltering, and could always make a surprise push, especially with the concept of a second wild card in each league possibly coming to fruition in 2012. The Jays haven't done much in the way of making the playoffs since their back-to-back championship wins in 1992 and 1993, but another collapse like the Sox had last season could put them in a better place. Their lineup is pretty young, as they added centerfielder Colby Rasmus from the Cardinals last season, and their bullpen, headed up by veteran Jason Frasor, is getting stronger. Once their rotation reaches its full potential, and as long as Bautista can continue his newfound ability to launch baseballs into the stands, things could be looking up for the northernmost team in baseball.
  • 2012 Prediction: It'll be difficult to win the division, but the Jays can take solace in the fact that they certainly can't finish lower in the standings than the Orioles, and their future is brighter than the other Birds.

2012 Projected Standings:

Boston Red Sox
New York Yankees
Tampa Bay Rays
Toronto Blue Jays
Baltimore Orioles

Sunday, February 5, 2012

Thanks For Your Patience, All 5 Of You.

It's been a while since we've updated here at TBF, but we promise, there's a reason for it. We're currently working on our analysis of all 30 teams, as part of our For Better Or For Worse? series that started last year. We'll be covering how 2011 turned out for each team, a brief summary of their offseason moves, and what the future could hold for every organization. Just bear with us, we'll be rolling out these posts very soon. Thanks!