The Reds' Badge Of Courage.

In what has been viewed as the biggest trade this offseason, the San Diego Padres sent starter Mat Latos to the Cincinnati Reds for pitcher Edison Volquez, first baseman Yonder Alonso, and two prospects. Even though many have said that the Padres completely fleeced the Reds in this trade, the opposite is true. Volquez has never quite lived up to his hype, Alonso wouldn't see much major league time in Cincy as long as Joey Votto was around, and predicting the future careers of prospects is always a crapshoot. On the flipside, the Reds get a young pitcher who has proven that he has potential, and even though injuries have plagued him since he got to the majors, Latos is still young at 24 and is now with an organization that has a knack for developing talent.

With the St. Louis Cardinals still reeling from losing their biggest star a month after winning the World Series, the Milwaukee Brewers adding two washed-up veterans to "improve" half of their infield, the Houston Astros one year away from moving to the American League, the Chicago Cubs adjusting to life with Theo Epstein, and the Pittsburgh Pirates continuing their streak of mediocrity, the stars seem to be aligning in the perfect way for the Reds to make a huge splash in the NL Central. 2011 was disappointing for them, as they watched the Brewers and Cardinals duke it out in the NLCS, missing the playoffs entirely just a year after their stunning division title in 2010. While it may have been nothing more than a fluke, it seems as if the Reds are done rebuilding, as so many teams seem to be doing as of late, and are ready to wrestle.

Jay Bruce hit a walkoff homer to clinch the division for the Reds in 2010. Is this a scene that might soon be repeated?

Adding Latos to the rotation makes this young Reds team even more interesting to watch. Their youthful enthusiasm, driven by Votto (2010 NL MVP), Jay Bruce and Brandon Phillips, drives them on the field to be as dominant as possible, while still maintaining a relaxed demeanor. Phillips is the oldest of the core group of youngsters at 30 years old, but his smile and huge presence on Twitter makes him seem 10 years younger. Votto is 28, and with Albert Pujols gone and Prince Fielder seemingly on the way out as well, he's poised to be touted as the best first baseman in the NL Central. And Bruce, 24, had a breakout year in 2011 that saw him garner his first All-Star appearance and early consideration for the MVP award before his numbers dropped off a bit in the second half. While the offensive power is there for the Reds, the pitching leaves a little to be desired. Even though they got rid of Edison Volquez as part of the Latos trade, a hurler that did more to hurt the team than he did to help it, the rotation needs to step its game up. The top three starters (Bronson Arroyo, Homer Bailey and Johnny Cueto) had 27 wins between them last season (each pitcher had 9), anemic strikeout levels (104-108 on average), and only Arroyo had a full season (Bailey and Cueto had 22 and 24 starts respectively). While also young like the lineup (Arroyo is 34, but Bailey, Cueto and Latos are all 24 or 25), they have yet to reach their full potential. If they do, though, they will be absolutely deadly.

But will they reach said potential? MLB is chock full of rookies and veterans alike that, at some point or another, were touted as the hottest prospect on the planet, or advertised as one of the most promising young players of this generation. But not every player can be a Pujols, a Jeter, a Ramirez. Some kids show flashes of brilliance and then fade away. Some old-timers show consistency over their careers, but never make the kind of splash necessary to carry a team into prominence. Who's to say the Reds won't fall victim to the dreaded overhype? It has killed teams in the past (for some reason, the Great Red Sox Collapse of 2011 immediately springs to the mind of this young Yankees fan) and will continue to do so throughout history. A single injury to an outfielder, or Tommy John surgery for a long reliever, and just like that, a team can crumble in an almost disturbing way. The Reds have the necessary stuff, but they need further conditioning. A young team is always an exciting idea, in that it seems to be built for long term stability, but you never know when Joey Votto might eat a bad hot dog and miss 10 games. A solid, youthful rotation looks nice, but Mat Latos might sprain his arm lifting a box and he's out until the All-Star break. Power and consistency are not the only things necessary to drive a team. The Reds have a great opportunity with the somewhat weakened position of the NL Central, but unless they retain the youthful enthusiasm and swagger that they've shown streaks of in the past few years, they're likely to lose their footing and slip while the Cardinals and Brewers race back into prominence.

The Evil Empire Stands Pat.

I've tried my best to keep quiet about this. I've held my tongue when I really wanted to say something to fellow baseball fans. I've covered my mouth when people have asked me where I thought certain big name free agents would go. I avoided conversations about what this offseason could mean for 2012. But I can't contain myself anymore.

WHY AREN'T THE YANKEES DOING WHAT THEY DO BEST, SPENDING A LOT OF MONEY AND IMPROVING THEMSELVES THROUGH FREE AGENCY?!?!?!?! HOW ARE THEY SUPPOSED TO WIN A WORLD SERIES WITH FREDDY GARCIA AS THEIR THIRD STARTER AND ANDRUW JONES AS A SEMI-REGULAR OUTFIELDER?! IT ISN'T 2002 ANYMORE!!

Now that I've gotten that out of my system, let's get down to brass tacks.

It feels like a long time since the Yankees last won a championship, even though it was only 3 seasons ago.

Things have gone somewhat downhill for my beloved Yanks since they won a title in 2009. Derek Jeter had his worst offensive year in 2010 and only mildly rebounded in 2011 (even though he hit slightly under .300 and had his 3,000th hit in July), Andy Pettitte and now Jorge Posada have played their last games in pinstripes (potentially), AJ Burnett became the second most hated person in New York, and the most hated person in New York became even more despised when he couldn't stay healthy and struck out to end both the 2010 ALCS and 2011 ALDS (you know who you are...ALEX RODRIGUEZ). There have been a few bright spots: Jeter's 3000th hit, Mariano Rivera's 602nd save, Curtis Granderson, Mark Teixeira and Robinson Cano forming a modern-day Murderer's Row...but at the end of the year, watching the Rangers advance to two straight World Series and losing to the Tigers in the first round means that 2010 and 2011 can be chalked up to nothing more than failed seasons. While it's a rough mentality to have (most teams would be thrilled just to win the Wild Card), it's the norm in New York.

What's even more upsetting for a Yanks fan is that they've sat idly by, both last offseason and this one, while other teams snatch big name players up like Manny Ramirez snatches up fertility drugs from his wife. They lost the Cliff Lee Sweepstakes to the Phillies last season and had to put together a rotation that consisted of ace CC Sabathia, joker AJ Burnett, and some cards that didn't even belong in the pinstriped deck like Garcia and Bartolo Colon, two pitchers who hadn't been effective since 2005. There was a highlight in Ivan Nova, a rookie who won 16 games despite posting a 3.70 ERA and 1.33 WHIP. However, they felt the pang of letting Lee slip through their fingers; thankfully, they didn't allow CC to do the same when he filed for free agency after 2011, signing him to an extension. The offense didn't suffer in the same fashion, as they ranked 7th in BA and in the top 3 of all other offensive categories, but notorious choker A-Rod couldn't come through in the clutch in the bottom of the 9th inning of game 5 of the LDS versus the Tigers this season, in the same way he froze up in the EXACT SAME SITUATION a year before in game 6 of the LCS versus the Rangers. 

This offseason, they watched CJ Wilson and Mark Buehrle, two hurlers who could have stopped the bleeding in the rotation, sign lucrative deals elsewhere, and didn't bother making offers to Albert Pujols, Prince Fielder or Jose Reyes. Admittedly, this would have been pointless, because they already have some established superstars at first base and shortstop, but it would have been nice to see them try, if only to assure us that they're still the big bad moneymakers we know and love. In reality, this is actually kind of nice. It seems like a maturation of the Yankees organization, that they believe in spending frugally, and cultivating exciting young players in the minor leagues. They're becoming more sensible in who they sign, and are more rational in their expectations of how a season will be viewed at its conclusion. Naturally, this has confused and infuriated Yankees fans. 

Keep those eyes covered, CC...things don't look much better for 2012.

We're not used to the Yankees not being linked to every free agent that could help bring the Commissioner's Trophy back to the Bronx. It's not like anyone named Steinbrenner to not spend more money than the national budget of most third-world countries to fill a hole in left field (no offense, Swisher, but your time is up). So what gives? Could the greed finally be sated? Are we happy with the mega-signings of the 2008 offseason? Will Jesus Montero, Manuel Banuelos and Dellin Betances be the new Key Three in a few years? Even worse, could the Red Sox, Blue Jays or equally intimidating Rays leapfrog the Yanks as the talk of the AL East? It's a scary situation. We could see both Jeter and Mo gone within the next 2 years, Cano and Granderson will reach free agency within the next 3, and A-Rod's contract is set to expire just after the turn of the next century. The Rays have a youthful, strong roster (how is it possible that Evan Longoria is only 25?), the Blue Jays continue to hover around .500 waiting to strike, and worst of all, the Red Sox STILL exist. And the Yankees sign Eric Chavez to back up A-Rod at third. WHAT IS HAPPENING?!

It's a sad, sorry state that the Yanks are in as we look toward the 2012 season. Lest we forget that they are still the New York Yankees, who always seem to win no matter how many people want them to lose. But with the lineup skewing too old, the rotation raising more questions than it answers, and a second wild card to be added in the American League this year, it's tough to be optimistic. Now and forever, though...GO YANKEES.

Everyone's Waiting For Yu.

Japanese pitcher and current hottest prospective free agent this side of the Rising Sun Yu Darvish recently announced that he would indeed be posted to Major League Baseball in the hopes of signing with an American team and playing in the good ole USA.

At only 25 years old, Darvish is considered one of the best pitchers in the world right now, except in Detroit. He came up to the big leagues with the Hokkaido Nippon Ham Fighters of Nippon Professional Baseball, the Japanese counterpart of MLB, on June 15th, 2005, 2 months shy of 19. He promptly began blowing everyone away with his amazing speed, his strikeout rate that seemed to skew outward exponentially, and his odd, side-arm delivery that confuses batters to no end, and reminds many fans of the 2-time Cy Young "Freak" Tim Lincecum. His record stands at 93-38, with an ungodly 1.99 ERA and 1,259 strikeouts to his already-famous name. He's a 2-time Pacific League MVP winner, 5-time NPB All-Star, won the strikeout title in 2007, 2010 and 2011, and took the ERA title in 2009 and 2010. So, to say the least, Darvish is the real deal.

Now that Darvish has asked the Ham Fighters to post him, American teams are allowed to send a sealed bid to Hokkaido's front office with an undisclosed amount of money. This is simply the posting fee, the rights to exclusively negotiate with Darvish. The team that wins the rights then can negotiate a contract with Darvish to play for MLB, at which point he becomes a regular player under the regulations of the American big leagues. If Darvish and the team that won the rights to negotiate with him cannot come to an agreement, the team receives its bid back and the team with the next highest offer gets a shot at signing Darvish. It's a complicated process, one that many say is flawed and highly expensive, but it's simply in the best interest of both the player and the potential organization, to see if they're a good fit for each other. However, with international players, there's always a chance that their skills might diminish by playing in a new league, and in a new country.

Darvish drives Japanese batters crazy, but will his immense talent translate in America?

Japanese players in the past 20 years, especially pitchers, have been viewed as a hot commodity in MLB. They are conditioned well, they work hard, and they can normally dominate opposing teams for a while, since they're new and untested by American players. What's more, they're already developed. There's no waiting for them in the minor leagues, owners and managers don't have to go through all the thumb-twiddling and toe-tapping like they do with fresh-faced youngsters plucked out of high school or college. But there's a big difference betwen MLB and NPB, as there's a big difference between America and Japan. Japanese baseball games can end in a tie if neither team is winning after 12 innings. There are fewer home runs hit and a much smaller focus on offense. The baseball itself is smaller and more tightly wound. That final difference is often the biggest reason Japanese pitchers have a difficult time transitioning to American baseball, as they and the teams that have signed them have found out the hard way over the years.

Hideki Irabu, who spent the first 8 years of his career with Chiba Lotte Marines, threw the fastest pitch ever thrown in NPB at the time at 98 MPH and won strikeout, ERA and win titles from 1994 to 1996. The San Diego Padres took notice and purchased his contract in 1997, which angered other MLB teams that wanted to negotiate with him, leading to the inception of the posting system we all know and love. Eventually, he signed a lucrative contract with the New York Yankees instead, and won World Series with them in 1998 and 1999. However, his skills quickly took a nosedive, and he was unable to retain his power. After spending a few more seasons in MLB and NPB, he retired after being unable to regain his former glory. He tragically killed himself this past July.

Daisuke Matsuzaka, who came to prominence with the Seibu Lions, won the Pacific League Rookie of the Year in 1999, was a 7-time All-Star, and pitched the Lions to a Japan Series title in 2004, pulled in the largest posting fee to date, slightly over $51 million, submitted by the Boston Red Sox. In addition, they signed him to a 6-year, $52 million contract in the hopes that he would shore up their rotation and help them continue their resurgence as one of the best teams in baseball. Since then, he's gone 49-30 with an ERA almost 2 points higher than his career ERA in Japan, 568 strikeouts over 5 years, and has only made 105 starts, including an embarrassing 7 in 2011, before it was announced that he would have season-ending surgery that he's currently recovering from. Even though he helped the Red Sox to a title in 2007, their second of the decade, he's been worth way under what he's being paid.

Perhaps the best example of overspending for a Japanese pitcher, Kei Igawa had a career year in 2003, winning the Central League MVP, the ERA title, the wins title, the Pitcher MVP, and the Eiji Sawamura award. Considered one of the best pitchers at the time, the Yankees won the rights to negotiate with him for $26 million and signed him to a 5-year, $20 million contract, considerably less than the Red Sox did with Matsuzaka. Unlike Dice-K, Igawa never put together anything that resembles a good season: of those 5 years, he pitched professionally only in 2007 and 2008, and the line is unimpressive - 16 games played, 13 starts (only 2 and 1 in 2008), just 71 innings pitched, a 2-4 record in the Bronx, and an unsettling (for a few reasons) ERA of 6.66. After spending the final 3 seasons of the contract toiling away in the minor leagues (at $4 million a year), Igawa is now a free agent and says he wishes to continue pitching in MLB. It seems unlikely any team will be willing to give him a chance.

Whoever Darvish pitches for hopes to be as happy as he'll be with his contract.

So who's to say that Darvish won't follow in their footsteps? True, he's younger than they were when they were posted. Yes, his stats are better. Admittedly, scouts and team officials who have watched him pitch say they believe his career in MLB will be as prolific as it's been in NPB. But it's clear that the transition between countries is a dangerous risk to take for teams. It stands to reason that Yu will command a very expensive contract, not to mention the largest posting bid to date. But who will pony up the cash? The two biggest spenders, the Yankees and Red Sox, are clearly a little gun-shy when it comes to Japanese hurlers. The Texas Rangers have been rumored to be big spenders, and could certainly use a lot of rotation help after losing ace CJ Wilson to Anaheim. The Seattle Mariners is a highly celebrated and greatly loved American franchise in Japan because of its proximity to the island, its being owned by a Japanese-based company (Nintendo), and for housing veteran phenom Ichiro Suzuki for the past 11 years. The Kansas City Royals may not have the money, but since they're still looking toward the future and trying to create the youngest lineup imaginable, they could be a dark horse candidate for Darvish.

The highest bid will be revealed on Wednesday, at which point the team that wins will hope to sign Darvish quickly and get him fitted for a cap and jersey before spring training arrives. There's a lot to look forward to...for Yu, and for me.

MV-PED.

Some disheartening news surfaced yesterday that Milwaukee Brewers outfielder and reigning NL MVP (for now, at least) Ryan Braun tested positive for a illegal substance, and could serve a 50-game suspension to open up the 2012 season.

Before the postseason, Braun and every other player on a playoff team had to submit to a drug test, the results of which showed heightened levels of testosterone in Braun's blood, which were determined to be synthetic. While it's not as bad as full-blown steroids or human growth hormone, testosterone is still a banned substance and qualifies for suspension. Braun is appealing the suspension and contesting the legitimacy of the results, saying to USA Today, "It's B.S.", and that he never knowingly took any illegal substance.

Many Brewers fans find it difficult to see Braun as anything more than the opening act for Fielder, but he's a legitimate batter in his own right.

I love Ryan Braun. He's Jewish, so as a fellow tribesman, I have to love Ryan Braun. But he's one of the strongest, most powerful hitters in the game, even without the use of any illegal drugs. He consistently hits over .300, has hit under 30 home runs or 100 RBIs once, and has a career OPS of .934, pretty good for someone who many fans think is "overhyped" and "nothing without Prince Fielder batting behind him". He's been an integral part of the Brewers' surprising playoff runs in 2008 and 2011, won the Rookie of the Year award in 2007, is a 3-time All-Star, won the Silver Slugger award from 2008-2011, and also, as you may know, won the MVP award this year in one of the most closest races in years. So, I'm willing to give him the benefit of the doubt, that this ugly scandal is the result of a one-time boost, and that he hasn't done this over his entire career, especially because there have never even been whispers of Braun's name in connection to steroids before now. Like I've said many times before, we as fans are so jaded because of what's happened in the last 20 years with the outrageous PED usage in the game, that we can no longer look at a player who's a solid, powerful batter without crying "STEROIDS!!" We're so quick to vilify and degrade any player who gives us even a hint of reasonable doubt, that we often can't look past the initial news and see the forest for the trees. Braun obviously had a good reason for ingesting synthetic testosterone (one would assume).

Does that make what he did any less immoral? Unfortunately, no. No matter how he, the media, or the Brewers front office try to spin it, he took an illegal substance in an attempt to boost his performance and give him a slight edge against his opponents. He also claims he did it unknowingly. Do athletes really think we're that stupid? Do they think the fans are nothing more than belching, cursing fat pigs who are so ignorant of the actual workings of the game because we'd rather just yell at a pitcher who intentionally walks a batter for giving up a base? Has that defense ever worked in an athlete's favor? To quote Braun himself from 2009 when Alex Rodriguez admitted using steroids, "The best thing he can do is come out, admit to everything and be completely honest...the situation will die a lot faster if he tells the whole truth." It seems that Braun already knows what his best course of action is, but instead, he's contesting the results, most likely because he doesn't want to lose the MVP award he won this year.

No player has ever been stripped of the MVP award. Will Braun be the first? Should he?

While there is no precedent for any awards being stripped post-scandal, there are already cries from angry Dodger fans (and maybe even some other people) that either Braun should have his MVP award from this previous season taken away, or that there should be a revote. This year's voting was already hotly contested, as Los Angeles outfielder Matt Kemp quietly put together a monstrous season, falling one home run short of joining the 40-40 club (and, after losing out on the award, boldly predicted he'd go 50-50 next season in an interview). But many fans believe that, since Kemp was on a .500 team and Ryan was on the playoff-bound Brewers, it gave Braun the advantage in the voting. Many fans believe that it doesn't matter if a player who has the best statistical season of anybody leads his teams to the postseason or not; rather, whichever player was the best should win the award. However, it's called the Most VALUABLE Player award, meaning the player was more VALUABLE to his team than any other player was to his (for further reading, I expanded on this in my post about Justin Verlander a few weeks ago, scroll down far enough and you can't miss it). Without Braun, the Brewers are just Prince Fielder and a few good pitchers, not nearly enough to make it to the NLCS. His ability to get on the base and to clear them made him an almost unstoppable offensive force. There's no denying he deserves the MVP award, even if Matt Kemp had an extremely comparable season.

But in light of this news, does Braun also deserve to have the award taken away? As I stated earlier, no player who's ever gotten in trouble after winning an award has had it stripped, or had his accomplishments officially diminished. In case you've all forgotten, Barry Bonds won 7 MVP awards, and still has every single trophy sitting in his trophy case, next to the deadened, shriveled remains of what used to be his genitals (steroid usage is no joke, kids). Sammy Sosa can still gaze into his ghoulish face in the reflection of his own MVP award. And nobody's trying to pry Jose Canseco's hardware away from him...if only because nobody wants to associate with Jose Canseco. What's done is done. It may seem foolish, or undeserved now, but it's final: Ryan Braun is your 2011 NL MVP, and he took an illegal substance. Whether or not he is stripped of the title, or there is a revote (in which case he's still completely eligible to win it again, in what would be a spectacular display of true hypocrisy in baseball), the fact still remains that he won the award first. Whatever fallout he, the Brewers or MLB suffers from this scandal, he was still voted the Most Valuable Player in the National League. And there's not a thing Dodger fans can do about it.

Angels In The Infield.

With all the talk about the Miami Marlins' shopping spree at this year's winter meetings, the dealings of most other teams were thrown into the background. But now, the Los Angeles Angels have slammed into the Marlins as the busiest team this offseason, signing both Albert Pujols and CJ Wilson within a few hours on the last day of these meetings.

While the Halos had been one of the favorites for Wilson since the World Series ended, they hadn't even contacted Pujols' agent until the last 2 days. While everyone was focused on whether the Cardinals or Marlins could one-up each other for Pujols, or whether or not the Cubs were a legitimate contender for him, the Angels quietly entered the fray as a "mystery team" and managed to win the Albert Sweepstakes. While we all slept, LA owner Arte Moreno and Pujols were both praying, Pujols praying for God to show him the way, Moreno praying that the way ended in Los Angeles. Shocking doesn't begin to describe this morning's events.

Pujols leaves behind a home, a legacy, and a couple of popular restaurants behind in St. Louis. It's expected that the Cards will make Lance Berkman their full-time first baseman, with an outfield of Allen Craig (who will become the full-time right fielder), Jon Jay and Matt Holliday. Even though they will miss his bat at the plate and his positive influence in the clubhouse, the defending World Series champions still project to be serious contenders going forward, as they still have a dominant rotation with Chris Carpenter, Jaime Garcia and a healthy Adam Wainwright, and a lineup that contains a revitalized Berkman and Holliday, as well as NLCS and WS MVP David Freese. So, although Pujols leaves a devastated St. Louis fanbase in his wake, it doesn't seem like people in Missouri will be mourning for too long.

Wilson joins a rotation that contains Jered Weaver, Dan Haren, and Ervin Santana. 5 years ago, none of them were starters, and Weaver and Santana were just starting in the majors. Separately, they're solid pitchers who eat innings and throw strikeouts at an amazing rate. Together, they comprise what could be the strongest rotation in the American League. They all have low to average ERAs (the highest ERA last season of any of the 4 was Santana's with 3.38, which most pitchers would kill to have), high innings counts and high strikeout rates, overall and on average through 9 innings. Similar feelings towards the 2011 Philadelphia Phillies rotation are already being applied to the hurlers in Anaheim: that the Angels could allow a fan to pitch every 5th day, and they'd still win 100 games. The best part about these boys, aside from their consistency, is that they all stay healthy. Over the past 3 years, only Santana has missed some time due to injury. A healthy, consistent rotation is what wins championships, and the Angels certainly have that.

As we learned last year, we can't predict what will happen in baseball based solely off of the teams on paper, but if we could, the 2012 World Series would appear to be the Los Angeles Angels vs. the Miami Marlins. But that's why they play the game.

The Elite Meet And Greet.

As the dust settles during the aftermath of the winter meetings, let's take a few steps back and see if we can't make sense of some of the confusing/somewhat aggravating events that took place in the last 4 days.

First, the elephant...or, rather, the big fish in the room, is that the Marlins seemingly pursued every big name on the free agent list this year quite aggressively this week. The surprise, though, is that they managed to land quite a few of them. Heath Bell, Jose Reyes, and now Mark Buehrle will all be taking their talents to South Beach to play for the retooled Marlins. The Marlins will pay out close to $200 million over the next 3-6 years just to the 3 of these players, showing a marked change from past seasons where they've either been quite frugal or have had their notorious "fire sales" in which they completely break the team up and trade everyone they can't afford away (although, this normally occurs after a postseason run or a World Series championship), one main reason they didn't land Albert Pujols like they so aggressively wanted to. The money and years (10 years at $220 million) were right, but in their fashion, they didn't want to offer a no-trade clause even to a player who is considered to be the very best of this generation, while St. Louis offered that and more for Pujols to resign.

But when it comes right down to it, as hard as the Marlins pressed, there was never a chance of Pujols leaving the Cardinals. Sports analysts have hemmed and hawed when presented with that scenario, spouting cliches such as "Anything's possible" and "He'll go where he thinks is best", but St. Louis is Pujols' town. He has built a life, a career, and a few fine restaurants there. The draw to be included in the discussion of the all-time great Cardinals, along with Rogers Hornsby, Stan Musial, Bob Gibson and Ozzie Smith, all of whom spent their entire careers only with the Redbirds, was too much. Albert has always expressed his strong desire to spend his playing days solely in St. Louis, even if the money wasn't exactly what he wanted (pressure from the fans and players' union was on Pujols to sign a contract that surpassed Alex Rodriguez's outrageous deal, but in the end, it just doesn't prudent to give $28 million in 2021 to a 42 year old whose best years will most likely be far behind him). In actuality, it seems that the Marlins, who still officially have a deal in place for Pujols but have come to the understanding that they are no longer the favorite for his services, were really used by Pujols and his agent, Dan Lozano, to drive up the price and incentives for the Cardinals, so that both sides would be satisfied. It may not be kind, but that's business.

A small jump away from Miami, we've had some interesting come out of Japan: Hiroyuki Nakajima, 29 year old shortstop for Japan League's Saitama Seibu Lions, was not only posted to MLB but has already had his negotiating rights bought. And what team has won the right to give him a ton of money to hit a ball with a stick? You guessed it: the New York Yankees. They reportedly won the rights with a posting fee of only $2 million, a far cry from the hundreds of millions of dollars they wasted on Kei Igawa and the late Hideki Irabu. So, understandably, the Yankees may be a little gunshy to pull the trigger. If he signs with them (there are rumors that he'd much rather sign with a West Coast team), it would stand to reason that he'd spend the next 2 years as a super utility man/powerful bat off the bench before taking over for Derek Jeter in 2013 (with him and maybe Eduardo Nunez waiting in the wings by then, chances are likely New York will decline their option on Jeet for 2014). If he declines, there's always a chance a team in California or Washington could swoop him up.

The Mets are preparing for life without shortstop Jose Reyes...which, obviously, means shoring up the bullpen. They've signed relievers Jon Rauch and Frank Francisco, both of whom spent last year with the Blue Jays, and received Ramon Ramirez from the Giants, as well as outfielder Andres Torres, in exchange for outfielder Angel Pagan. So, the Mets will begin 2012 with an injury-riddled infield, an incompetent outfield, a rotation in shambles, no sure-thing closer, but a damn good bullpen. They better rebuild fast.

CJ Wilson is feeling a lot of love, being viewed as the last premium starter left on the market with the signing of Buehrle. It seems the Marlins are vying for him (no surprise), as are the Angels. The Rangers, the team he's spent his entire career with to this point, offered him $60 million over the next 4 years, but the Marlins have offered him 6 years at an undisclosed amount, and it's likely the Angels won't be able to match the deal in terms of length. Texas already has plans in place to prepare for live without Wilson: they signed reliever Joe Nathan to be their closer to fireball-thrower Neftali Feliz could move to the rotation, and they've had multiple talks with the Cubs about a possible trade for Matt Garza. Wilson has been highly effective in his 2 years as a starter, going 16-7 with a 2.94 ERA and 206 strikeouts in 223.1 innings last year, but has struggled so much in the postseason (0-3, 5.79 ERA in 5 starts this past October) that many teams who desperately need a solid pitcher in their rotation (I'm looking at you, Yanks) quickly backed off. It should be noted that he is the only pitcher in history to be the losing pitcher on Opening Day, the All-Star Game, in an LDS, LCS AND World Series. Approach with caution.

David Ortiz accepted the Red Sox' arbitration offer, and will return to Boston in the hopes of a multiyear deal with the numbers he's looking for. The Sox offered Big Papi a 2 year, $18 million dollar deal, well below the value of the $12.5 million one-off deal he signed last offseason, but sources say the two sides are still working on a longer deal. Ortiz, a 6-time All-Star, has been an incredibly dominant force at the plate for the Sox since he was traded from the Twins in 2002, and has helped propel Boston to 2 World Series, where they swept the Cardinals and Rockies in 2004 and 2007. He's considered to be the face of the franchise, more respected than fellow veterans Kevin Youkilis, Tim Wakefield and captain Jason Varitek (the last 2 of whom were not offered arbitration and are in that difficult "play somewhere else or retire" stage in their careers). Oddly enough, there didn't seem to be much interest in the 36-year-old designated hitter this offseason, even though his services could certainly be valuable on many teams in both the AL as a DH or the NL as a super bench player. It's for that reason that the Sox feel they have leverage against Ortiz during the negotiations about the length of his contract, but the truth is, Big Papi not only wants to retire as a Red Sox (God only knows why anyone would want that), he deserves to.

Always the busiest week in baseball's offseason, this year's winter meetings certainly did not disappoint. However, many free agents, including the ex-Brewers first baseman that everyone seems to have forgotten about in Prince Fielder, still remain unsigned. We'll keep you posted on all the wheeling and dealing that has yet to ensue.

Revenge Of The Nerds.

Remember the days when watching a baseball game meant nothing more than going out to the ballpark, spending some time with friends and family, eating hot dogs, and rooting for your favorite player to hit a home run, or for your favorite team to win? Remember the magic that came from seeing a rookie make a spectacular diving catch, or the veteran jumping to rob the opposing batter of a homer? Remember when the game was solely about the love of baseball, and nobody worried about properly calculating stats?

Yeah, me neither.

For the past 3 decades, statistics new and old have come to dominate how we view position players, pitchers, and teams overall. At the forefront of this mathematically-minded revolution is the raging debate between regular stats versus sabermetrics, tradition versus change. After all this time, stats like batting average for a batter or wins and losses for a pitcher don't satisfy as proper indicators of how good that player is. There's WAR (Wins Above Replacement), UZR (Ultimate Zone Rating), FIP (Fielding-Independent Pitching), and a slew of other confusing acronyms that mask formulas even more perplexing. Managers and front office workers are now lauded by their ability to create not the best baseball team, not even the most popular baseball team, but the most efficient baseball team. Billy Beane, Oakland Athletics GM and notorious wunderkind, is now hailed with the likes of Bill James (the godfather of sabermetrics) and Earnshaw Cook (whose 1964 book Percentage Baseball was the first book dedicated to promoting the usage of advanced statistics in baseball) because of his ability to spend low on players that are, based solely off these stats, theoretically create the most dominant team in baseball. Now, we all know how his approach has worked out so far (the A's haven't gone deeper into the postseason than the Division Series other than in 2006), but it's not for lack of trying. And, in Beane's defense, the numbers told him they'd be a good team, and for what he paid, he got a solid team, just not one tooled for the postseason.

Even at 21 years old, I'm an old school baseball fan. I abide more by the ideology that anything can happen on a baseball field, regardless of what the numbers say. In all fairness, though, I'm delving myself into the practice of sabermetrics, and I have to say, I'm being impressed with a lot of it. These math geeks who now influence many team owners and GMs have really figured their stuff out: the formulas are solid, and plugging in data from the past can often be a very good indicator of how a player will do in the future (you know I love you, Derek Jeter, but the naysayers may not be so wrong when it comes to your defensive abilities). The most intriguing sabermetric I've found so far is the Pythagorean expectation, a formula created by Bill James to figure out how many games a team "should" have won, based on how many runs they scored and allowed. I won't go into explicit detail, since the formula looks like something you'd expect in a masters-level engineering class (and I'm an undergrad majoring in journalism, do the math...so I don't have to), but this stat seems very cocky, in a way. Predicting the number of wins a team SHOULD have had? Give me a break. If a team SHOULD have had those wins, they SHOULD have gotten them. Albert Pujols SHOULD have hit 10 more home runs than he did. Felix Hernandez SHOULD have thrown more strikeouts. The Cubs SHOULD have won a title in the last 100 years. There's no true stat that can accurately account for what SHOULD happen, or SHOULD have happened. Bill James could calculate that the Red Sox SHOULD have won 110 games last year instead of 90, but they DIDN'T. MLB isn't going to redact the Cardinals' World Series win and award it to Boston solely on merit, and the result of this formula.

Baseball, like it or not, isn't a game of numbers. You can't completely predict what a ballplayer will do based on math. Sure, a lot of it CAN be properly calculated. Stats accumulated at the end of a season can certainly be used in sabermetrics to determine how good of a season the player had, but can't possibly state to the exact number, or even close, to how that same player will perform next year. Take Jered Weaver, Angels ace and 2011 Cy Young runner up: in 2009, his FIP (which is calculated, bear with me, as number of home runs allowed multiplied by 13 PLUS number of walks allowed multiplied by 3 MINUS number of strikeouts multiplied by 2, all of which is DIVIDED by number of innings thrown, then the entire equation has 3.10 added to it so that the result resembles a traditional ERA) was 4.04, not bad for a starter. With that kind of FIP, one might expect him to perform at an average level, but not be a formidable ace. In 2010, though, he improved quite handily: his FIP dropped almost an entire point, to 3.06, and even though his record worsened (16-8 to 13-12), his ERA dropped, as did the number of hits, runs, home runs and walks he allowed, while his innings count and strikeouts increased handily. While this isn't extreme, there doesn't seem to be a whole lot of mathematical evidence to explain it. The sabermetrics predicted he'd be a middle of the pack starter, but for all intents and purposes, his performance then helped to make him one of the hottest hurlers in 2011.

There is a lot of merit in these stats and sabermetrics, don't get me wrong. And I'm going to keep exploring them and their applications to this great game. But I'm just saying, for all of you out there who use them religiously and rely on them to help you in every argument...it's been said before because it's true, baseball is a magical game. You can't account for everything. Players coming through in the clutch, the force of the fans, even the weather can make or break any team, regardless of what the math says.

Reyes Of Hope In Miami.

It's been rumored, it's been speculated, it's been debated...and now, it's been confirmed: free agent Jose Reyes has reportedly agreed to a deal with the Miami Marlins, the first "big" free agent to be signed this offseason. If nothing else, this shows that the Marlins, who have reached out to almost every star player since the World Series ended, aren't just talking; they're highly interested in getting things done and becoming a perennial contender.

According to ESPN.com, the deal was worth $90 million for 6 years at first before Marlins brass upped it to $111 million ($106 million guaranteed with an option for a 7th year at $22 million, and a $5 million buyout clause if the option isn't picked up). The Mets and Brewers were supposedly in the running for Reyes' service (Reyes spent his entire 8-year career in Flushing before the end of this season, and Milwaukee was also kicking the tires with their shortstop Yuniesky Betancourt also being a free agent), but neither offered more than $85-90 million, and couldn't match or surpass Miami's offer once it was increased. The deal comes a few days after the Marlins signed closer Heath Bell, who passed his physical and is expected to be announced during the Winter Meetings that begin tomorrow in Dallas, and the Reyes signing means that Miami shortstop Hanley Ramirez will be converted into a third baseman, which effectively kills two birds with one stone.

With this move, and the decline of the powerhouses in Philadelphia, it seems like the Marlins are emerging as a force to be reckoned with in the NL East. As I wrote in the last post, a Marlins lineup with Reyes, Ramirez, Mike Stanton and Logan Morrison would be tough to control for opposing pitchers, and a rotation with a healthy Josh Johnson and Ricky Nolasco could prove to be dominant, especially with closer Heath Bell in the bullpen for them. The worst part for fans in Atlanta or Philadelphia (and especially those in New York), the Marlins are still players for the services of Mark Buehrle or CJ Wilson, making their formidable rotation even scarier. Before we start touting the Marlins as the 2012 World Series champs, however, we need to remember that the way teams look on paper doesn't necessarily translate onto the field. Injuries, weather and bad luck can ruin a team's season (2011 Red Sox). Reyes' injury history is not only well-documented, it's one of the reasons many teams didn't even make an offer to him. When healthy, he's the best leadoff hitter in the game today, but it won't matter if he only plays in 100 games. The Marlins are taking a big risk, but if he stays healthy, the reward far outweighs that risk.

This move does have some interesting implications, though. First, Hanley Ramirez will be moving to third base, a move that he said he'd be willing to make if the Marlins signed Reyes, but not necessarily happy to do so. Ramirez isn't known for having the "team-first" attitude, which was one of the reasons former manager Jack McKeon benched him in one of his first acts last season (another reason was his rapidly declining batting average/OBP). But even Ramirez has to understand that Reyes has not only been around longer, but has played shortstop longer, and the metrics prove that he's better defensively than Ramirez (.968 fielding percentage to .957, and a whopping 6.2 to Ramirez's 1.3 in WAR). Plus, Ramirez would be more valuable, both to the Marlins and as a free agent, as a power-hitting third baseman, while Reyes is still tabbed as the leadoff shortstop who gets on base frequently (strains of Jeter and A-Rod are blaring in this Yankees fan's head). As for the Mets, they're left to pick up the pieces...which won't be that difficult, as youngster Ruben Tejada is the heir apparent to the shortstop position in New York. And it'll be difficult for Mets fans to miss Reyes for long, since Tejada is another light hitter, in that he won't be smashing balls into the stands frequently, but a .284 batting average and .695 OPS in 96 games is nothing to turn your nose up at. If he had more of an opportunity to strut his stuff, we'd have more of an idea of what he'll be like, so it'll be easier to see how he'll flourish in 2012.

So, with Reyes signed to a new team, we can focus even more energy on worrying about whether or not Albert Pujols will resign with the Cardinals, or if Prince Fielder will switch to the AL. Stay tuned for any more updates as they happen.

Something Kinda Fishy Going On.

The Florida Marlins recently unveiled their new uniforms, their name change (to the Miami Marlins), and hope to host the reigning world champion St. Louis Cardinals in their new stadium near downtown Miami. They've also acquired a new manager, the never-subtle Ozzie Guillen from the Chicago White Sox. Since the season ended and all these grand changes have occurred, Marlins ownership has been quickly and heavily aggressive, giving most of the marquee free agents a tour of the new stadium and a nice, if not pedantic, offer before they have a chance to say, "Wait, you mean I'd have to wear THAT when I play?" While the chances of many of these players being fool enough to take what have reported to be less than flattering offers is slim, Miami brass is at least sending a good message, that they're willing to explore literally every option to turn this team into a true contender.

Still, something doesn't feel right. The Marlins have rarely been in the mix for any big players since their creation in 1993, and even though they won titles in 1997 and 2003 and most of the players for those teams went on to have very good careers elsewhere (it was almost an unspoken team policy that when the Marlins won the World Series, they immediately had to dismantle the team to prevent it from happening again, no matter how much the talented tried), they were never seen as the hotspot for impact infielders and power pitchers. But, all of a sudden, the new stadium and those Godawful uniforms have given them the swagger necessary to make a push for Albert Pujols AND Prince Fielder? CJ Wilson AND Mark Buehrle? Jose Reyes AND just about every other player who doesn't already have a guaranteed contract for 2012? They managed to sign dominant Padres closer Heath Bell to a 3-year deal, which already eats up the majority of the expected increase in payroll (they're projecting $80 million, up from $55 million last year, and Bell is supposedly taking $9 million home a year), but the chances of them getting any of the other big names they've lusted after seems somewhat slim.

In all actuality, the Marlins don't really need to rely heavily on the free agents. They have an incredibly powerful, young lineup consisting of Hanley Ramirez, Mike Stanton and Logan Morrison among others. Their rotation also has Josh Johnson and Ricky Nolasco, two of the best young starters when they're healthy. This is a team that has an amazing future ahead of them...if the homegrown talent can get their act together. Ramirez's season was one we'd all like to forget, Morrison is having surgery soon, and Johnson is still recovering from his own surgery. If they can get the whole band grooving at the same time instead of a few solo projects, they can make some beautiful music. Now, if they do manage to get any of the free agents, the one they're most likely to reel in (and the one that makes the most sense) would be Reyes. He's still moderately young, a true demon on the basepaths (led MLB in triples last year, no small feat), and a defensive maven at shortstop. However, the liability of his health make it difficult to have a lot of faith in him, but it's a move that would really help the Marlins out. It would mean moving Ramirez to 3rd base, a move that Hanley himself said he was more than willing to make should Reyes want to take his talents to South Beach. A lineup of Reyes-Ramirez-Stanton-Morrison would be enough to instill fear in the grizzliest of veterans (watch out, Halladay), but might be a little difficult to bring to fruition, if reports of the Marlins' offer to Reyes (6 years at $90 million, seen as vastly underpaying for someone with Reyes' abilities) is true.

The Marlins are trying their hardest to make a splash with free agents. But if they manage to get the production out of their guppies, they can make a formidable team of big home-cooked fish without any necessary, expensive side dishes.

The Greatest Non-Rivalry In Baseball.

Let me preface this post by saying it has no basis in current events, it's just something I've noticed over the past few years, and it's finally bothered me enough to write about it.

Since interleague play began in 1997, many natural rivalries have been cultivated: Yankees and Mets, White Sox and Cubs, Angels and Dodgers, etc. These make the most sense because, after all, these teams exist in opposite leagues in the same state. One rivalry, though, seems incredibly confusing, and that is the rivalry (yes, it's apparently a real rivalry) between the Mariners and the Padres.

This may not seem like a big deal to the majority of readers. The reason for that is because it's not. These teams almost always underperform, neither team has ever won a championship (Padres lost in 1984 and 1998, Mariners made the ALCS once or twice in the late 90s/early 2000s but never advanced to the World Series), and both teams are more notorious for their mediocrity than anything else. And yet, every single season, baseball fans find themselves subjected to these forced, uninteresting series between the San Diego "Huh?" Padres and Seattle "What?" Mariners. However, there is a little more history to this odd matchup than it seems.

Back in the 1930s (yes, this "rivalry" is older than the majority of baseball fans), when the Padres were just starting out as a minor league team, they had a fierce competition with the minor league team in Seattle which was a precursor to the short-lived Seattle Pilots (the now-Milwaukee Brewers). For most of the teams' history, they actually did have many meetings, and they each seemed to hold a small amount of interest and solicited a fair amount of passion from the fans. Once both teams became part of MLB, though, and were put in opposing leagues, they didn't face each other at all from the 1960s until 1997, when the at-the-time unpopular interleague play was instituted. The two faced each other for the first time as major league teams, and the anticipation was...well, there wasn't any, really. While it was a treat for fans to see Randy Johnson and Alex Rodriguez play against Tony Gwynn and Trevor Hoffman, the excitement surrounding the matchup was less than palpable. Neither team appeared to be poised for greatness that season, so the series was largely ignored...as nearly every single other series that followed it would be.

Now, if either team becomes a powerhouse (or, even better, if both do...although the Cubs will probably win a World Series before the Mariners make another ALCS), then this rivalry might have some meaning to it, especially if they happened to meet in October for the Fall Classic (I know, I know, but a man can dream). But until then, it's hardly Yankees and Red Sox...it's not even Twins and Brewers. But it will go down as the best, most heated rivalry that never was.