With the St. Louis Cardinals still reeling from losing their biggest star a month after winning the World Series, the Milwaukee Brewers adding two washed-up veterans to "improve" half of their infield, the Houston Astros one year away from moving to the American League, the Chicago Cubs adjusting to life with Theo Epstein, and the Pittsburgh Pirates continuing their streak of mediocrity, the stars seem to be aligning in the perfect way for the Reds to make a huge splash in the NL Central. 2011 was disappointing for them, as they watched the Brewers and Cardinals duke it out in the NLCS, missing the playoffs entirely just a year after their stunning division title in 2010. While it may have been nothing more than a fluke, it seems as if the Reds are done rebuilding, as so many teams seem to be doing as of late, and are ready to wrestle.
Jay Bruce hit a walkoff homer to clinch the division for the Reds in 2010. Is this a scene that might soon be repeated?
Adding Latos to the rotation makes this young Reds team even more interesting to watch. Their youthful enthusiasm, driven by Votto (2010 NL MVP), Jay Bruce and Brandon Phillips, drives them on the field to be as dominant as possible, while still maintaining a relaxed demeanor. Phillips is the oldest of the core group of youngsters at 30 years old, but his smile and huge presence on Twitter makes him seem 10 years younger. Votto is 28, and with Albert Pujols gone and Prince Fielder seemingly on the way out as well, he's poised to be touted as the best first baseman in the NL Central. And Bruce, 24, had a breakout year in 2011 that saw him garner his first All-Star appearance and early consideration for the MVP award before his numbers dropped off a bit in the second half. While the offensive power is there for the Reds, the pitching leaves a little to be desired. Even though they got rid of Edison Volquez as part of the Latos trade, a hurler that did more to hurt the team than he did to help it, the rotation needs to step its game up. The top three starters (Bronson Arroyo, Homer Bailey and Johnny Cueto) had 27 wins between them last season (each pitcher had 9), anemic strikeout levels (104-108 on average), and only Arroyo had a full season (Bailey and Cueto had 22 and 24 starts respectively). While also young like the lineup (Arroyo is 34, but Bailey, Cueto and Latos are all 24 or 25), they have yet to reach their full potential. If they do, though, they will be absolutely deadly.
But will they reach said potential? MLB is chock full of rookies and veterans alike that, at some point or another, were touted as the hottest prospect on the planet, or advertised as one of the most promising young players of this generation. But not every player can be a Pujols, a Jeter, a Ramirez. Some kids show flashes of brilliance and then fade away. Some old-timers show consistency over their careers, but never make the kind of splash necessary to carry a team into prominence. Who's to say the Reds won't fall victim to the dreaded overhype? It has killed teams in the past (for some reason, the Great Red Sox Collapse of 2011 immediately springs to the mind of this young Yankees fan) and will continue to do so throughout history. A single injury to an outfielder, or Tommy John surgery for a long reliever, and just like that, a team can crumble in an almost disturbing way. The Reds have the necessary stuff, but they need further conditioning. A young team is always an exciting idea, in that it seems to be built for long term stability, but you never know when Joey Votto might eat a bad hot dog and miss 10 games. A solid, youthful rotation looks nice, but Mat Latos might sprain his arm lifting a box and he's out until the All-Star break. Power and consistency are not the only things necessary to drive a team. The Reds have a great opportunity with the somewhat weakened position of the NL Central, but unless they retain the youthful enthusiasm and swagger that they've shown streaks of in the past few years, they're likely to lose their footing and slip while the Cardinals and Brewers race back into prominence.