Tuesday, September 28, 2010

You Are 27, Going On 28...

All right. I'm going to do my best to keep this post as professional and unbiased as I can.

YANKEES CLINCH THEIR 15TH PLAYOFF BERTH IN 16 YEARS!!!! WHOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!

Dammit...

That's right, folks: no matter what, the Yankees will be in the playoffs for the 15th time in 16 years. Aside from an embarrassing miss in 2008, every October has brought with it two certain things: someone will win the World Series, and there's always a good chance it'll be the men in pinstripes.

Now, none of this is to disregard the other fine competitors that have already clinched a playoff berth (just a few minutes before the Yanks got theirs, the Rays guaranteed themselves a spot in the postseason as well, and then the Reds followed suite shortly after), nor does this negate anything I've said about the Bombers or the other teams I've talked about. Nothing has changed, aside from the guessing. Now, only certainty. New York's better team will be getting their 15th chance in 16 years to win the Fall Classic. And with that, the American League's playoff teams have been decided. The only thing left to find out is if Tampa Bay will win the East, or if the Yanks manage to dethrone them. Either way, both will face either Minnesota or Texas in the division series, and with both of the latter teams on significant losing streaks, it's looking more and more likely that these two East Coast teams will meet up in the championship, both looking to face Philadelphia (purely my own prediction as of today) yet again. And, if I may continue to be so bold in my predictions, I'm guessing that, should it come to pass that the Yankees and Phillies meet up again, it could turn out the same way it did in 2009. At least I sure hope it does.

And with that, I'll be taking a break from blogging until Sunday, when the regular season ends, at which point I'll begin to work on my guide to the postseason: What To Expect When You're Expecting (To Win).

Those Phucking Phillies (It's Always Sunny In Philadelphia).

Before I start this post detailing Philadelphia's incredibly high chances of winning their second World Series in the past 3 years, I just have to get one thing out of the way:

Roy Oswalt, I still hate you. A lot. You are not a good pitcher; rather, you finally have a good team behind you. If you were any good, your record in Houston would have been better. You're not worth the hype you're getting, and you're damn sure not worth the money you demanded. You've got one of the best teams behind you. I could have a 7-0 record with the Phillies behind me too. Kindly retire and leave the game forever, please.

Gosh, I already feel a lot better. Now, onto why these Phreaks will make me cry by the end of October.

First, I truly don't know if the Yankees will repeat. Their bats have been hot, but the defense (especially the pitching) has suffered lately. Worst of all, Mariano Rivera can't seem to get his pitch under control anymore, leading to a few blown saves in the most crucial part of the season. Everyone's mechanics have to get better if they want to bring championship number 28 to the Bronx this year, because it sure would be nice not only for the Yanks to repeat this year (as they used to do years ago), but against the same team they won number 27 from as well. And for all we know, they could be beaten out by Boston in this next week for the wild card. However, Boston's injury woes will prevent them from making an impact against the Phillies: aside from David Ortiz, they have no bats powerful enough to beat out the Philadelphia pitching.

Second, the Rays are one of the best teams in the game, but they're still too cocky for their own good. Lest we forget, the Phils are the ones who nearly swept them in the 2008 championship, and not a whole lot has changed for the Rays, at least not enough to get a different outcome should the two meet in the Fall Classic again. Lately, they've failed to even ensure a playoff spot in a time when their closest competitors were falling to the wasteside, courtesy of the team underneath them. So who's to say they can get a repeat of 2 years ago and flip it around?

Third, whether the Twins or Rangers can beat out any team in the AL East (and then do it to the other one, or possibly each other) or not, they could face a surging Phillies team in the championship. For the Twins, Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau are absolutely essential for a legitimate shot at bringing home a World Series to Minnesota for the first time since 1991. Without either of them, or if they can't deliver at the plate, the rest of the team will have to pick up a major amount of slack. The Rangers are lucky enough to have Cliff Lee pitching for them, guaranteeing a win in any game, especially one against the team he pitched in the World Series for just last season. However, with Ian Kinsler not performing the way he should, and having dropped a few games immediately after clinching the division, Texas' hopes are wavering.

As far as the teams opposing the Phils in their own league, it seems like the only team that could really pose a threat is the Cincinnati Reds. With Joey Votto, Jonny Gomes, and Jay Bruce still managing to take care of business offensively, and Aroldis Chapman holding wins for pitchers while frying the pitch speed radar guns, they're the biggest internal threat to the Phillies making a 3rd consecutive World Series appearance.

As far as San Francisco, San Diego, Atlanta and Colorado go, they'll all be too tired from fighting with each other for the 2 remaining playoff spots that they won't be rested enough to take on the white-hot Phillies, so I don't believe any of them can pose a true threat to their postseason hopes.

For Philadelphia themselves, all the pieces of the puzzle have really fallen together. They have the same players, or comparable ones of the same caliber, as they've had the past few years, only this time, their pitching is even better than last year. I mean, as good as Cliff Lee and (ugh) Pedro Martinez are, I'd rather take Roy Halladay and (UGH) Roy Oswalt, especially in October. Cole Hamels is just as good, if not better, as he's been last year and before. With Jimmy Rollins, Ryan Howard, and Chase Utley finally all back and healthy, and players like Jayson Werth, Placido Polanco, and Raul Ibanez lighting pitches up as they've quietly been doing all season, I think it's a good bet that these boys might take the championship trophy back to Philly yet again. I can only hope they'll have to go through my Bronx boys first.

Sunday, September 26, 2010

Just When You Think They're Out, They Pull Themselves Back In.

For the past month, the Boston Red Sox have been all but eliminated from contention. They were the Detroit Tigers of the AL East: a strong team, but their chances of making the postseason dwindled faster than the number of people who believe Jose Bautista isn't taking steroids (more on that in a little bit). Well, unlike the Tigers, who rolled over and purred for the Twins and even White Sox ahead of them, the Red Sox, accustomed to statistical failure, sure as hell haven't given up. In fact, they've made a late playoff bid against the one team who really needed to beat them to keep their own hopes alive: their hated rival, the New York Yankees. A far cry from the 2009 championship team (even though they're fundamentally the same players), these Yanks have really dropped the ball lately, literally and figuratively. They're currently on a 4-game losing streak, after dropping 2 to the team ahead of them and 2 to the team below them. Not a pretty sight for Jeter and his crew. If they lose tonight (at the moment of this writing, the BoSox are up 1-0 in the bottom of the 7th), they'll not only be a game and a half behind Tampa Bay, but will only be leading Boston by 4.5 games. It's incredible how the past 6 years have changed Boston's playing over the previous 9 decades. Since breaking the alleged "Curse of the Bambino" in 2004, they've made the playoffs every year except 2006, won championship number 7 in 2007, and more importantly, were partially responsible for forcing the Yanks out of the 2008 playoffs, the first year they failed to at least reach the ALDS since 1995 (game update: Alex Rodriguez, in another bid to finally make New Yorkers like him, just belted a 2-run shot to put the Yankees up. A-Rod, you're all right in my book). This is pretty apropos of how their seasons would go between 1918 and 2004: come into October, knock some good teams out before finally losing...except that last part changed in '04. The fact of the matter is this: Boston can be 10 games out in the middle of September and still be in playoff conversations. I checked the ESPN preview for Friday's game between the two teams, and I scoffed at the following sentence: "With their playoff hopes nearly extinguished, the Boston Red Sox are looking to spark something in this away series at New York." How can you say a team who's 6.5 games out of the wild card, THE WILD CARD, on September 24th, with roughly a full week left of play, is NEARLY out of contention?! They're as far away from the playoffs as Barry Bonds is from making a comeback (look out, 2011)! Or so I thought. Even with 6 home runs in Friday's game, including 2 from A-Rod and 2 from Mark Teixeira, the Yanks STILL managed to lose, 10-8. All right. No big deal. Still sitting on 5.5 games. This is totally manageable. And then on Saturday, apparently still dumbfounded by Boston's signs of life, they lost 7-3. What is going on? Is this the same Red Sox that The Baseball Freak wrote about just a few weeks ago, when he discussed their limited options and laughed to himself, the Yankee fan in him vastly satisfied? No...it can't be...this must be a Red Sox team rejuvenated. They're channeling the spirit of Ted Williams and forcing him into David Ortiz's body! They're nursing Adrian Beltre with Native American chants! They've tied Theo Epstein up and hidden him from sight! All AL contenders, watch out for these boys!!

Two great players on two separate teams both hit impressive milestones this past week: Ichiro Suzuki of the Mariners reached his 10th consecutive 200-hit season, and Jose Bautista of the Blue Jays hit his 50th homer of the season, the first player to do so since 2007. We already know (and have known for years) what a dominant player Ichiro is, but Bautista has literally come out of nowhere this season. He's been playing since 2004 (the year he played for 4 different teams), but until this year, he had only hit 59 home runs total. And now, a week before the regular season ends, he's hit 52 just this year. This is a truly amazing feat: and, as with every incredible accomplishment, people want to figure out how he's done it. And, as is common procedure by jaded baseball fans and reporters this decade, plenty of people have started accusing him of juicing. I understand being suspicious, but give me a break. In this day and age, with the advanced testing and multiple methods of determining if a player is taking steroids, wouldn't we have heard something legitimate towards this already? Are we really so far gone as fans that we have to automatically assume that, when a player does something good, regardless of how unexpected it may be, is cheating? Can't we guess that he changed his swing? Or that he worked to improve his eye-hand coordination during the offseason? Maybe pitchers started throwing him easier pitches because they underestimated him, then couldn't stop? Maybe he's a late bloomer? Or maybe it's just part of the magic and mystique that surrounds the game: there are plenty of incredible, amazing, holy-crap-did-you-see-that?! moments in major league baseball...this could simply be a season-long one. We really need to collectively get out of the mindset that every player who excels is doing something wrong.

Wednesday, September 15, 2010

What Are The Odds?

In this post, I'm going to make three separate predictions about this postseason: the results I personalliy want to see, the results I think are pretty outlandish but not entirely impossible, and the results likely to happen. Some of you may not like or agree with the predictions made in this post...if that's the case, stop reading and go back to your home in Boston or St. Louis, you sore loser.

First, the way the standings look as of the date this is written (which is halfway through September, so don't expect to see much deviation from this in real life before the playoffs):

AL East - Yankees.
AL Central - Twins.
AL West - Rangers.
AL Wild Card - Rays.

NL East - Phillies.
NL Central - Reds.
NL West - Padres.
NL Wild Card - Braves.

My personal predictions (what I'd like to see):

ALDS: Yankees beat Twins, Rangers beat Rays.
NLDS: Phillies beat Reds, Braves beat Padres.
ALCS: Yankees beat Rangers.
NLCS: Braves beat Phillies.
World Series: Yankees beat Braves in 5 or more games.

The main reason I want this result is so I get to see the Yankees play without having to spend the money going to New York. Now that these are out of the way, my next two sets of predictions are the ones more based on facts and stats than my own desires.

My potentially unrealistic predictions (what I think are pretty unrealistic, but still possible):

ALDS: Twins beat Yankees, Rays beat Rangers.
NLDS: Phillies beat Reds, Padres beat Braves.
ALCS: Twins beat Rays.
NLCS: Padres beat Phillies.
World Series: Twins beat Padres in 6 games.

My slightly more realistic predictions (what will probably happen):

ALDS: Yankees beat Twins, Rays beat Rangers.
NLDS: Reds beat Phillies, Padres beat Braves.
ALCS: Rays beat Yankees.
NLCS: Padres beat Reds.
World Series: Rays beat Padres in 5 games.

And now, to defend myself.

I really like the Twins. Nearly as much as I like the Yanks. Joe Mauer is quickly becoming one of the best players in the game, and they've got such a great lineup and a pretty strong rotation, so it's hard for them to be downtrodden, but New York is very good at upsetting teams in the clutch...just ask Derek Jeter. The Rays and Rangers are a similar situation: good lineups, good rotations, both with strong players, but it seems like the guys from Tampa Bay just keep getting better, and I don't believe Texas has the chops to stand up to them either way. The Phillies/Reds was a tough one (so much so that I decided to switch the results for the more likely predictions), I really think it could go either way at this point: having Roy Halladay would certainly give any contender a real edge, but you've got to like a team that has potential Triple Crown winner Joey Votto. The Braves have finally regained some of the magic that propelled them through the late '90s and early '00s to 14 division titles, but the Padres have managed to hold on and maintain the lead even after a horrible August, which really shows the true tenacity and what a good team they have, so don't be surprised if Atlanta's Jason Heyward and his supporting crew begin to choke just as they've done in many recent years.

What do you think October will hold for baseball? Let me know your thoughts.

Sunday, September 12, 2010

For Our Next Trick, We'll Make Our Playoff Hopes...DISAPPEAR!

I knew that the San Diego Padres' incredible luck this season was bound to run out, it was just a matter of time. For a team with no World Series wins or even appearances in late October, was anyone shocked to watch their season explode as specatularly as the champagne bottles they've rarely been able to pop open? Surprisingly enough, their dominance didn't come to an end during or immediately following their atrocious 10-game losing streak, but has come during this crucial series with the team that's been breathing down their neck lately, the red-hot San Francisco Giants, followed by the ice-cold Colorado Rockies' own 10-game streak during which they've been winning. For a true dark horse this season, how did the Pads suddenly come into the light?

Luckily for them, they haven't been too bogged down by season-limiting or -ending injuries to important players, unlike the BoSox. Their players have been moderately healthy, and the pitching has been truly awesome this year, both the starters and the bullpen led by scary-looking closer Heath Bell. They've been getting big hits, making good plays, winning games and maintaining a solid lead over their closest competitors for most of the season. So why are they suddenly losing the massive amount of ground they had during the part of the season where it's as valuable as Jim Thome's most recent home run (you know, the one that propelled him past Frank Robinson for 8th all-time on The List)? I think it doesn't have so much to do with them as it does with the Giants and Rockies finally getting their respective grooves back. Don't get me wrong, a 10-game losing streak actually hurts a team more than it helps them, but even after that, they still had a few games on San Fran. But after a 3-game series against the Giants this weekend, they're now in a tie for first in the division. Mat Latos, the losing pitcher today, normally gets the win for San Diego, but he couldn't stand up to the defensive powers of Alanis Morrisette....I mean, Tim Lincecum. Throw in Buster Posey, the guy who's making Jason Heyward's chances at winning Rookie of the Year dwindle rapidly, and a lineup that's finally finding some power, and you've got a perfect disaster on your hands. Even worse, the Rockies have been turning to Troy Tulowitzki for some power, and boy howdy, has he happily obliged: in the past 5 games, he's homered just as many times, and hit 2 blasts in 2 of those games. Now they're just a game and a half behind the two tied at the top. Whew. And I thought the AL East race was tight. All I'm saying is, it'd sure be nice for San Diego citizens to finally have something to be proud of their baseball team for this season, but don't be surprised if it doesn't come to pass for the Fathers.

Every sport has that one veteran who doesn't seem to know when to call it quits and retire. The NBA has Shaq. The NFL has Favre. And when it comes to that one player in the MLB, the answer is obvious and, for me, quite painful: Derek Jeter. I really can't believe I'm about to write what I'm going to say...I even had a good cry before typing this out, but it's true: Jeter needs to go gentle into that professional good night. He's one of the most acclaimed Yankees (and players overall) of all time, passing names like Ruth, Gehrig and Mantle over the years; he was the Rookie of the Year in 1996; he's been the captain of the team since 2003; he's been an All-Star every year except '96, '97, '03 and '05; he's "Mr. November" thanks to the walk-off homer he hit in the delayed 2001 playoffs; he's been a notoriously good hitter with a .315 average overall; and, oh yeah, he's got a World Series ring for every finger on one hand. He's been living the only life he's ever wanted for 15 years...and it's time to let go. This season hasn't been kind to the 36-year-old shortstop; after batting .407 in last year's World Series, he's lost too much speed and power to really keep up statistically even with the infielders that surround him: Teixeira, Cano, and A-Rod. He's had a few minor injuries that seem to be increasingly getting worse. Not to mention the tiny detail that his contract expires at the end of this season, and for the first time, it looks like the Yankees brass may not be so interested in bringing back their golden boy. In most players' cases, this would simply mean the player becomes a free agent and can sign with another team, but come on - could you seriously see Jeet in anything but pinstripes? Derek's made it clear over the years that he wanted to play his entire career with New York's better team, so if he's not resigned, it stands to reason that the only viable option for him is to take his awards, his notoriety, his money, and his 5 championships, and sit back and let the new generation take over as he did a decade and a half ago. It kills me, but Derek Jeter, if you happen to read this, just know that you're one of my favorite players of all time. I wouldn't be saying these things without a reason. If the Yanks don't bring you back, walk away with pride. You'll be in Cooperstown before you even know it.

Monday, September 6, 2010

Royal Pains, And The Itch You Can't Control.

You know, something's bothered me all season. Zack Greinke, Kansas City's ace, is truly a great pitcher. Even though he has an 8-11 record, his ERA is 3.87, which isn't terrible, but his 1.22 WHIP helps to paint a slightly different picture. Either way, his records could be a lot better if (stay with me, now) he played with nearly any other team in the major leagues.

Now, I'm not suggesting this team simply because they're my favorite team, but I can't be the only one who thinks Zacky boy would look pretty good in pinstripes. It would sure give New York a great opportunity to get someone like Vazquez or Burnett and their lack of production out of town. And as far as the run support Greinke so desperately needs in his games, he's much more likely to get the win with a lineup of A-Rod, Robbie Cano, and Teixeira behind him, as opposed to major Royals superstars like Yuniesky Betancourt or Wilson Betemit (who, sadly, are probably the two best offensive players on that team right now). If the Yanks could get rid of at least one of the two pitchers I named and reserve a spot in the rotation for Greinke, that already-potent lineup of starters becomes so much more dominant. Sabathia, Pettitte, Greinke...it has a nice ring to it. Of course, there are plenty of good teams Greinke could go to in which he'd be a regular Curt Schilling. Maybe it's time he spent some time in the pitcher-friendly National League. If he went to Philadelphia, it'd be a similar situation to New York: Halladay, Hamels, Greinke...sounds pretty nice as well. Or maybe he could go to a struggling team with some potential and create a possible playoff run, or at least a .500 record for the team. For example, maybe the Marlins or that other New York team could benefit from his performance. He'd fit in nicely either place, and like I said, as long as he has that crucial offensive help from his team's lineup, Greinke would be a great fit almost anywhere. It's truly a shame that he's toiling in borderline worthlessness simply because he has the misfortune of playing for what is possibly the worst baseball team in history (well, aside from any team that comes through Seattle). When Zack accepted his Cy Young award last season, he didn't put much emphasis on the team behind him as help towards his stellar performance. And, really, why should he? He's played with the Royals his entire time in the league, and that's why no one really knows just how great he could be. He's got a 58-64 career record (again, it would be better were he playing almost anywhere else) and a 3.75 overall career ERA, but his minor league stats tell a much happier story: in his time in the Royals farm system, he pitched for 2 different teams. He had a 15-4 record and an incredible 1.93 ERA. You also have to consider the fact that he's still only 26, meaning he could potentially have 10 more years in the game. He signed a 4-year contract in 2009 with Kansas City, but if he's smart, he'll try his hardest to get himself traded to a good team, not even necessarily a genuine contender right now. I would list his best options for where to go, but truly, almost any team would be lucky to have him (and, again, I selfishly think the Bombers should try and make this happen).

Speaking of options, the Cardinals are rapidly running out of them. Their recent run of losses are like a bad rash: it keeps spreading, and there seems to be little they can do to ease the burn. Luckily, like a magic bottle of calamine lotion or Gold Bond, they picked up two soothing wins out of three games against their hated Cincinnati rivals this past weekend, but it might not be enough. While Matt Holliday has been doing all he can to help (he hit a 3-run homer during Sunday's game, and was responsible for 6 of the 8 runs the Cards scored over this series), the Golden Goose Albert Pujols seems to be experiencing a shortage of eggs; he's had 1 hit in his last 20 plate appearances, a shockingly poor showing from the best player in the game today. This is, of course, not to mention the fact that the Reds' Joey Votto has all but robbed the chances of Al earning a Triple Crown this season, but he certainly hasn't helped himself lately. Could the Redbirds' problems be the pitching? Wainwright and Carpenter are still taking care of business, but without the power in their lineup, they could pitch no-hitters and still not necessarily win. It doesn't help the Cards that young upstart Colby Rasmus, only in his second year in the majors and quickly becoming a great player despite nagging injuries, has caused a bit of a distraction by requesting a trade out of St. Louis, earning him the wrath of Mr. Pujols, who released some public comments about what a lack of respect Rasmus is showing with this. Now, as I stated in an earlier post, Colby has become one of my favorite players, a happy surprise in my fantasy draft that made me become a big fan of him and his sporadic but growing production. However, if you've got a chance to play on the second-winningest team in MLB history with a player that will go down as legend as well, you've got to appreciate what you have. From what it looks like, St. Louis will be happy to let him go, meaning he most likely won't be a Card come 2011. So, I don't know about you, but I'll be keeping a closer eye on Rasmus' moves this offseason than what the Cardinals do the rest of this season; I think the former has a brighter future than the latter does in 2010.

Wednesday, September 1, 2010

Perplexing Predicaments Pertaining To Pitchers.

Stephen Strasburg. Cliff Lee. Derek Lowe. What do these pitchers have in common? Well, nothing, aside from the fact that all of them recently got injured.

Ubaldo Jimenez. Tim Lincecum. Javier Vazquez. These pitchers started out strong, and have recently run into a lot of trouble when it's counted most.

Dallas Braden. Edwin Jackson. Armando Galarraga. These guys threw a perfect game, a no-hitter, and a 28-batter perfect game, and still have losing records nearing the end.

For a season that was initially touted as the "Year of the Pitcher", it has quickly become, to use a Little League colloquialism, the "Year of the Belly Itcher".

Heading into the final stretch of the season, pitching becomes even more important than any other point in the year. Batters and fielders are slowing down, some due to fatigue and a desire to simply be put out of their misery, some due to injuries that prevent them from playing at the caliber they usually do, and some because they're more concerned with conserving their energies for their possible playoff bids. However, pitchers don't seem to be able to take advantage of this so easily, mainly because they too are getting worn out. A pitcher's arm goes through more in a season than any other part of any other type of player's body. Why do you think the players I listed above made such a big splash at the beginning, but now are fading into the background? There are a few reasons: a) they're getting injured, b) their team is slowly gearing down for the offseason, or c) their team is slowly gearing up for the postseason, and wants to make sure one of the best weapons in their arsenal is locked and loaded (just not with illegal substances, mind you). It's why the Cincinnati Reds called up Aroldis Chapman, one of the fastest pitchers in the league for years, to help give some of the rotation a break. It's why New York's CC Sabathia is as dominant as ever (and yet, surprisingly, this is the first time I've mentioned one of my favorite Yankees in this blog), leading the AL in wins and setting his sights on another World Series. It's why the Minnesota Twins scrambled to acquire closer Brian Fuentes from the Angels, to help secure some wins to ensure their lead over the White Sox is safe. Out of the 9 pitchers I mentioned, only a third of them are on teams that are likely to be playing in October: Lee, Lowe, and Vazquez. Lee's been absolutely horrid in his last 3 starts, and this injury certainly won't help. For such a dominant pitcher most of this season and last, it's a big detriment to the Rangers for him to be injured. Lowe, who already had a World Series ring with the BoSox in '04, has been day-to-day for a couple of weeks and just announced that he'll miss his next start against Florida on Friday, which also doesn't bode well for the Braves (considering they still have Hanson and Hudson, though, Lowe won't be missed so much). Vazquez has just been so atrocious lately that the Yanks decided to demote him to the bullpen "temporarily", which is a nice way of saying, "Hey, you stink, and we'll use you when you decide not to stink anymore." If there's one incredibly weak point of my normally-strong Yankees, it's by far the bullpen. Vazquez joins a wonderfully terrible lineup of Joba Chamberlain (one of the few Bronx Bombers that I can't stand), recently acquired Kerry Wood (who played for the Cleveland Indians, if that gives you any indication towards his abilities), and a bunch of other pitchers who aren't even worth mentioning. If Mariano Rivera ever retires, all these boys are in a world of trouble. So, many of these teams need to take care of their pitchers if they want a better shot at a championship.

I'd like to note that Roy Oswalt, a favorite player around this blog, is really showing he's worth all the money he's being paid and has managed to improve his season record to 10-13, although he does have a good ERA of 3.01. Also, he managed to take a no-hitter into the 6th inning, which is more a credit to the team behind him, but since he's such a wonderful pitcher, let's applaud his efforts of almost throwing a no-no (but falling 3 full innings short). Whoopie! Let's give him a Cy Young award. He's CERTAINLY earned it.